Polls on House races released this week

[WI_DEM]

The news this week in a variety of polls released was, on the whole, pretty good:

THE GOOD:
IA-01/IA-02/IA-03: GOP poll puts Dems ahead in three key races
Call this one the "holy shit" surprise poll of the day, especially when you consider the source. GOP pollsters Voter/Consumer Research headed into the field in Iowa, and found that all three Democratic incumbents polled hold respectable leads over their Republican challengers. The big surprise among the three is veteran Rep. Leonard Boswell, who most folks conceded was trailing Republican challenger Brad Zaun. The GOP pollster begs to differ, however, putting Boswell up by nine points (48-39) over Zaun. In Iowa's 2nd district, second-term incumbent David Loebsack holds a similar edge over Mariannette Miller-Meeks (47-39), while over in the 1st district, second term Democrat Bruce Braley holds a slightly larger edge over Republican Ben Lange (50-39). The pollster found slightly closer races when they confined their sample to so-called "certain to vote" participants.

CT-05: Even GOP internals in district put Murphy at a toss-up
In addition to their work in central Arizona, National Research has been busy in the northeastern part of the country, as well. Even their polls, however, could not provide a lead for GOP challenger Sam Caliguiri. The internal poll, conducted last week, put second-term Democrat Chris Murphy one point ahead of Caliguiri (40-39). Another GOP poll, that one from Ayers McHenry, had Murphy ahead of Republican Steve Greenberg (who wound up losing the primary to Caliguiri

IL-10: New Anzalone Liszt poll gives Dems good shot at a pickup
Illinois' 10th district has, throughout this cycle, always felt like that one GOP-held seat that seemed destined to flip to the Democrats. A new Anzalone-Liszt poll on behalf of Democratic nominee Dan Seals seems to confirm that supposition. The poll has Seals leading Republican nominee Bob Dold by thirteen points (49-36). The poll is an internal poll, but even right-wing pollsters We Ask America have given Seals the lead in this swing district thus far

KS-04: Internal poll says Dem upset possible, with or without Hartman
It is probably high time for everyone to put this race on the radar screens, despite being an open seat in a district with a considerable GOP tilt. An acrimonious GOP primary, plus a stronger-than-average Democratic nominee, seems to have put this Wichita-based district in play. A slightly dusty internal poll from Democrat Raj Goyle's campaign (courtesy of Gerstein-Agne Strategic Communications) from mid-August gave Republican Mike Pompeo a mere three-point edge (50-47).

MS-01: Dem internal poll puts Childers ahead in tough district
This internal poll might be one of the more pleasant surprises of the week, as it shows a Democratic lead in a district that a lot of pundits probably would have left for dead a month ago. The poll, from Anzalone Liszt, gives Democrat Travis Childers a narrow edge over Republican Alan Nunnelee (46-41). Childers won a special election in June of 2008 in a district that went heavily for both George W. Bush and John McCain.

NC-08: Even Republicans concede Kissell up front in key race
Kind of a curious release here--the campaign for Republican nominee Harold Johnson has released an internal poll by Public Opinion Strategies. The curious thing about this GOP internal poll is that it shows the Republican candidate trailing his Democratic rival. The POS poll puts Kissell at 39%, with Johnson trailing at 34%. One of the quintet of DCCC polls released yesterday showed Kissell up double digits on Johnson (48-36).

PA-04: Dem internal claims massive lead for Altmire
One district that apparently the Democrats don't have to worry about defending is the swing 4th district in Western Pennsylvania. At least, that's the case if a new internal poll on behalf of second-term Rep. Jason Altmire is to be believed. The Anzalone Liszt poll shows Altmire with a two-to-one edge over Republican Keith Rothfus (51-24). Rothfus scored what was generally considered to be an upset win over NRCC fave Mary Beth Buchanan in May's GOP primary.

WV-01: Even GOP internal concedes Dem lead in key open seat
Perhaps in response to an internal poll by Democrat Mike Oliverio (one which showed him up 16 points), the campaign for Republican David McKinley rushed out their own internal poll. While the poll shows Oliverio out in front, the margin is quite a bit smaller. The poll, by Public Opinion Strategies, puts Oliverio up five points (41-36) on McKinley.

House race polls conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, Anzalone Liszt, Benenson Strategies, and Global Strategy Group on behalf of the DCCC. Conducted on differing dates between August 23 and September 2. Likely voters. MoE 4.9%

AL-02: Rep. Bobby Bright (D) 52%, Martha Roby (R) 43%
NY-24: Rep. Michael Arcuri (D) 50%, Richard Hanna (R) 37%
NC-08: Rep. Larry Kissell (D) 48%, Harold Johnson (R) 36%*
SD-AL: Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin (D) 50%, Kristi Noem (R) 39%*
VA-05: Rob Hurt (R) 44%, Rep. Tom Perriello (D) 42%*

(*)--Indicates third-party candidate drawing 4-6% of the vote.






THE FAIR:
Democrats lead Maine Congressional Races

Both of Maine's Congressional races are looking more competitive than usual, with the incumbents facing tepid approval ratings and holding single digit leads:

1st:
Chellie Pingree leads challenger Dean Scontras 47-38. Voters in the district are evenly divided on Pingree's job performance with 40% approving of her and 39% disapproving. She's benefiting from a pretty weak opponent in Scontras. 65% of voters have no opinion about him and among those who do only 15% see him positively with 20% holding a negative view.
2nd:
Mike Michaud leads Jason Levesque 45-38. That may be a closer margin than he's become accustomed to in recent elections but it's better than a lot of other Democrats are doing in districts where Barack Obama's all the way down at 41%.
www.publicpolicypolling.com

THE BAD:
FL-24: GOP pollster claims double digit deficit for Kosmas
If a new Public Opinion Strategies poll out of central Florida is to be believed, freshman Democrat Suzanne Kosmas goes into the heat of the general election cycle down by a dozen points to Republican nominee Sandy Adams. The poll by POS puts Adams up 49-37 over Kosmas, who defeated Tom Feeney rather easily in 2008. The poll claims that both President Obama (38/58) and Speaker Pelosi (30/64) have horrid numbers in the district, which could explain Kosmas' apparent dilemma.

IL-17: GOP pollster says Hare trails in nominally Democratic district
Speaking of the right-wing polling crew at We Ask America, they have elected to poll the usually Democratic 17th district. Their results are similar to other GOP internals in the district, which seem to insist that this district is, indeed, competitive in this cycle. W.A.A. gives Republican Bobby Schilling a narrow lead (41-38) over Democratic incumbent Phil Hare. Green Party candidate Roger Davis takes 4% of the vote

WA-08: SUSA claims double-digit lead for Reichert
SurveyUSA continues its brutal outlook for Dems, putting a potential pickup well into the GOP column in a new poll out of suburban Seattle. Perpetually vulnerable Republican Dave Reichert has a thirteen-point lead over Microsoft executive Suzan DelBene, according to SUSA (54-41). Reichert scored narrow wins over Darcy Burner in both 2006 and 2008, and has never won the district by more than six points

[Joanne98]

1. Thank you for posting these polls everyday. They're very helpful.

:yourock:

[Jennicut]

2. I will do my part to keep Chris Murphy as my Rep in CT-5.

Caliguiri is an idiot who once worked for Gov. Roland (he went to jail, says it all) and I just think there is no way Murphy loses this race. It IS CT and we are trending more blue then the rest of the country right now. Our Gov race looks like a Dem pickup as well.

[WI_DEM]

3. kick