PPP: Some hope for Dems this fall - enthusiasm gap closing as election draws closer.

[jefferson_dem]

A small piece of hope

We haven't had much positive to say for Democrats lately but here's a little glimmer of hope: in the New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Virginia elections so far this cycle the enthusiasm gap has lessened as the election got closer. It wasn't enough to save Jon Corzine, Martha Coakley, or Creigh Deeds but it could be a difference maker in a close race.

A Virginia poll we conducted in late July and early August last year found a likely electorate that supported John McCain by 11 points. Our second to last poll there, which predicted Bob McDonnell's final margin of victory almost right on the dot, found that improved to McCain +4.

Our mid September New Jersey poll last year found an electorate that was Obama +2. Our final poll there found that improved all the way to Obama +11 and that's a big reason why Corzine ended up losing only by 4 points instead of the 9 point deficit he had a month and a half before the election.

And in Massachusetts two weekends before the election we were looking at an Obama +16 electorate, which improved to an Obama +19 one the weekend before the election. That didn't save Coakley though after her gaffe filled final week.

Similar upticks in enthusiasm this year won't keep the election from being a bloodbath for Democrats but it could make the difference for some candidates, particularly those in close races in states with particularly large enthusiasm gaps. Three specifics names come to mind. Our last Illinois poll found Alexi Giannoulias ahead by 2 points with an Obama +9 electorate in a state he actually won by 25 points. Our last Wisconsin poll found Russ Feingold up 2 points with an Obama +1 electorate in a state that he won by 14 points. And our last Nevada poll found Harry Reid ahead by 2 points with an Obama +4 electorate in a state that he won by 12. A small increase in Democratic interest in those states could ensure those guys pull out narrow victories.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/09/small-piece-of-hope.html

[LonePirate]

1. If we maintain a majority in the House, we must reduce that filibuster threshold in the Senate.

The country can no longer afford to deal with Republican obstructionism and we have too much work to do to fitter away the time trying to appease them.

[opihimoimoi]

2. Dems gonna rule...GOPers in a panick...using Fantasy as medicinal Pain killers

ya can see it in their eyes....

[monmouth]

3. What is this "bloodshed" they speak of? I just don't see it....n/t

[jefferson_dem]

4. I want to be optimistic but my head says November 3 will not be pretty for us.

How "un-pretty" remains to be seen, however.

As of right now, I'm predicting Dems lose 30 seats in the House. :( Sorry. The trend is the trend.

[monmouth]

6. Ye gawds, I shall not be right for weeks if that happens, and I'm not

necessarily alright now. Well, time will tell.

[Ramulux]

10. Are you volunteering?

If you cant bother to volunteer for an hour or two once or twice in the coming months than yeah, we are probably gonna get killed. If you are as scared and upset as I am about this situation you need to go out and do as much canvassing and phone-banking as possible. The only way to lower the losses is to GOTV in a big way, if we remind people that there is an election this year and what the stakes are we can really change the narrative. Sign up for Organizing for America and see where the closest event is being held, if you live in a major city there will absolutely be multiple events being held near you. It doesnt take long, its not hard, and it will make the difference. Everyone on this website who is scared of the repubs taking back congress, need to be out there doing what they can, if you dont you dont get to complain when we get destroyed this November. It sucks that we have to waste our free time volunteering at a time when many people have school and work, but that's the reality.

http://my.barackobama.com/page/s/ofavolunteer?source=www_navbar
OFA Volunteer page

[jefferson_dem]

11. I hear you.

I'm doing my part.

Stay strong .. and keep fighting the good fight.

[Jennicut]

15. In 1982, the Repubs lost 26 seats....so that is not unusual during a bad

economy and right now is way worse then in 1982. Many of the seats lost were ones gained in 1980.

[county worker]

5. We didn't see it in 1994 either. It all depends on turn out and at this time it looks like

a good many Dems will not vote in Nov's election. That was the case in 1994. I can see it going either way. Though when I read somebody saying they won't vote because it doesn't matter then I tend to lean toward a blood bath.

The repub turnout is a given. How we counter is up to us. We lack a certain fire in the belly that is always in the bellies of the wing nuts.

It is so funny to me. The right isn't getting what they want right now so they will turn out and vote to get change. We aren't getting what we want either so we are not going to vote because of it.
True the right thinks it's candidates will deliver what they promise and that gets them fired up, but that is the same idea that should be getting us fired up too!

[Bluenorthwest]

7. Ah, predicting the future in the negative. Interesting.

Political polling in late summer is like asking a 6 year old what they want for the Christmas after next.

[KingFlorez]

8. Polls can only show so much

Lack of enthusiasm doesn't always mean people are going to show up and in all fairness, there really isn't much to be excited about. At the same time, the Republicans have very low approval and that has to be factored in. I'm still predicting that we don't lose more than 30 seats, maybe a little under there.

[Clio the Leo]

9. I'm about to go slap my OFA "Vote 2010" bumper sticker on my car...

... if any pollster is curious. :)

[old mark]

12. Well, I don't know about Deeds, but Coakley lost the election pretty much on her own

when she went on vacation instead of campaigning, while Brown campaigned hard...she evidently thought she was an automatic win...

Corzine was thought to be a big spender and Jersey was in deep debt, so Christy got in as a budger cutter...(He since closed schools and libraries and is paying his friends huge salaries...)

I doubt there really was much to do with Obama or even democrats in general in either of these elections - I think this is something the media and eht GOP made up in th ehope that repeating it often enough would make it true...this is typical GOP politics - Lie loud an dofter an dpeople will believe it, even Democrats.

I think we will do much better than anyone expects in November if we keep working hard, donate and VOTE!!!!

mark

[and-justice-for-all]

13. I find the "repuke take over" to be hyperbole bullshit...

proudly brought to you by misleading polls (which are meant to demoralize) and the M$M.

[Peacetrain]

14. Hear Hear..

Nothing would make me happier than to see this turn around... and I think it is a lot closer than the mass media and pollsters think.. I am working hard for that.

[Dawson Leery]

16. k/r

[Vinca]

17. The pollsters should ask the question to Dems differently. Try . . .

will you be voting against Republicans in this election? That's one thing we can get excited over.

[flpoljunkie]

18. Will be interested if national enthusiasm numbers move in next polls after Obama's politickin