Tom Jensen of PPP: "I wouldn't be surprised if O'Donnell ends up winning by 10" (DE Senate primary)

[WI_DEM]

Comparing Delaware and Alaska

One thing that really struck me in our Delaware polling numbers was that on a lot of measures Mike Castle actually appeared to be in even worse shape than Lisa Murkowski:

-55% of primary voters said they thought Castle was too liberal. For Murkowski on our post primary poll in Alaska that was only 47%.

-Castle's favorability was a negative 43/47. On the similar although not identical measure of approval we still found Murkowski on slightly positive ground even after her primary loss at 48/46.

-35% of primary voters in Delaware said they were positively influenced by a Sarah Palin endorsement, only 26% said the same in Alaska.

-25% of Delaware Republicans say they consider themselves to be members of the Tea Party movement. Only 18% said the same in Alaska.

A lot of these differences can probably be chalked up to Delaware having a closed primary and Alaska an open one. 64% of primary voters in Delaware identified themselves as conservatives to 59% in Alaska.

There's a pretty wide range of outcomes that would not surprise me tomorrow given the difficulties of polling a Republican electorate in a small blue state. It would be no shock if Castle hangs on to win but when you look at the internal numbers and compare them to Murkowski I also wouldn't be all that surprised if O'Donnell ends up winning by 10.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/

[Mass]

1. lol. May be it would have been easier for him to say he has no idea how it will end.

[WI_DEM]

3. PPP has had a pretty good track record this year, I'm hoping that his poll

is correct and that O'Donnell ends up winning this thing tomorrow. It would be one less seat the Dems would have to worry about (I hope!)

[Mass]

4. I was reading the last line of the excerpt you posted where he basically says he has no idea how

it will end.

I hope it will go for O'Donnell, but I always find surprising that a pollster cannot say: I do not know.

[WI_DEM]

6. I know, of course, the poll is within the moe, and so that is why he can't say for sure

but I think he's hinting that the electorate demos are stronger for O'Donnell. We'll see.

[bluestateguy]

2. Trailer Park Teabaggers are more motivated to vote than Country Club Republicans

and this broad clearly seems to have the momentum here too.

[flpoljunkie]

5. Thogh the Medicare/SS receiving Teabaggers who come to DC to protest obviously have money

[Cognitive_Resonance]

7. It's almost too good to be true. It sure looks like the GOP embrace

of the 'Tea Party movement" stands to backfire on them in a big way. Delightful!

[David__77]

8. I hope she wins, OR Castle switches parties.

Either one is fine. But either way, we must work for the victory of Coons in November. If this woman wins the primary, then the possibility of a GOP-led senate becomes impossible, in my opinion. That said, I would rather have the house than the senate any day.

[Cha]

9. Kick

:)