DrSteveB
(123 posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Thu Sep-16-10 10:32 AM
Original message |
Is there a formula to translate generic ballot polls into seat predictions? |
|
Edited on Thu Sep-16-10 10:33 AM by DrSteveB
What is the historic correlation between the two factors?
|
tridim
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Thu Sep-16-10 10:38 AM
Response to Original message |
1. I think it goes something like this.. |
|
If the Republicans have a small generic lead, the Democrats will be "trounced".
If the Democrats have a small generic lead, the poll is completely ignored, and the Democrats will be "trounced".
|
Kurt_and_Hunter
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Thu Sep-16-10 10:45 AM
Response to Original message |
2. I do not know a formula, but the |
|
basic deal is that we need a substantial lead to be even because Dems are more concentrated in congressional districts--lots of "wasted" Dem voters
The break-even point is anywhere from Dems +3 to Dems +8. I don't know the most up to date view of that. (It does change over time.)
I think the last Gallup generic ballot poll before the 1994 election was Dems and Pugs tied.
|
DU
AdBot (1000+ posts) |
Sun May 05th 2024, 08:49 PM
Response to Original message |