(R)asmussen Poll: MA Governor--Patrick 45% Baker 42% Cahill 5%

[WI_DEM]

Incumbent Democrat Deval Patrick remains slightly ahead of his Republican challenger Charlie Baker in the race for governor of Massachusetts.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Bay State finds Patrick earning 45% support, while Baker picks up 42% of the vote when leaners are included. Democrat-turned-Independent candidate Tim Cahill runs a distant third with five percent (5%), and five percent (5%)more favor some other candidate in the race. Two percent (2%) are undecided

Sixty-nine percent (69%) of Patrick’s voters say they are already certain how they will vote in November, as do 64% of Baker supporters and 54% of those who favor Cahill.

If leaners are not included, Patrick captures 42% of the vote, while Baker earns 38% and Cahill 11%. In the previous survey, when leaners were excluded, Patrick led with 39% to Baker’s 34% and Cahill’s 18%.

President Obama remains more popular in Massachusetts than he is among voters nationwide in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. Fifty-four percent (54%) of Massachusetts voters approve of the job Obama is doing as president, while 45% disapprove

www.rasmussenreports.com

[Mass]

1. I still dont understand their leaner's models?

Are they forcing people to choose between Baker and Patrick? I cant find a mathematical model where Cahill's numbers would drop if they only asked undecided to chose?

Basically, the race is where it has been for the last month or more. Good that Patrick is starting to run ads and that an independent group is also airing ads reminding people that Baker is not new in local politics.

[karynnj]

6. That is pretty weird as they all should go up

[Mass]

7. I also noticed that they have another candidate in the list.

There is one other candidate. Her name is know. Why not add her to the list. And I doubt she reaches 5 %

[Recursion]

14. Jill Stein? I love her. I want to bear her children

Unfortunately she's not even a spoiler, she polls so low.

[Imajika]

2. This is really not a good sign...

"President Obama remains more popular in Massachusetts than he is among voters nationwide in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. Fifty-four percent (54%) of Massachusetts voters approve of the job Obama is doing as president, while 45% disapprove"

The President has a pretty good approval rating in Mass (54%A), yet Patrick is struggling - and we wound up with Scott Brown when the President's approval ratings in Mass were around the same or a higher.

[Mass]

3. Coakley would have won if she had campaigned. Patrick will not make the same error.

In addition, Baker is not Scott Brown. While he is certainly more competent, he does not have the same personality.

[sallyseven]

4. I hope your saying that baker is

more competent than brown and not patrick. Patrick is more competent than either of them. I am more competent than brown. baker is just a spoiled brat.

[Mass]

5. Of course. And right now, Baker is busy pandering to the far right.\nt

[HughMoran]

8. Patrick being ahead as upopular as he has been in the past is a GOOD sign

You must not be up on Mass politics.

[Recursion]

10. My office is next to Charlie Baker's campaign HQ

First off, I find it odd that the women who work there are ridiculously hot while the men are overweight pasty-faced buffoons. But I'll leave that aside.

My real point is that from what I can see they are running a very disciplined campaign. Their ads have been on-target and on-time. They're even contesting Boston (which is why I saw their ads). There's a lot of enthusiasm and a lot of young volunteers. This bodes badly for Patrick. But, I still think Deval can pull this off.

[Mass]

11. Actually, the numbers are better than before. Approval above 50,

support more solid than Baker's, and frankly, I dont find Baker good.'Yes, he has ads, in the Boston area media, but so did Kerry Healey.

[Recursion]

12. OK, fair enough

The problem is, with DiMasi, et al, "Had Enough?" resonates.

That's Baker's secret, IMO: he's not running against Deval, he's running against Beacon Hill. And, frankly, there's a lot to run against there at this point.

[Mass]

13. Yes, but in the next six weeks, people will hear he IS Beacon Hill.

Did you see the independent ads reminding people he is behind the financing of the Big Dig. And, for many people I know, he looks like a phony. People like him because he is a moderate MA Republican (a la Bill Weld), but he is pandering to the far RW.

The fact Patrick is ahead without an ad, while Cahill and Baker have been flooding us with ads, is a good sign.

[Recursion]

15. I do agree, and I think Patrick will pull this out

Which will also be good for Obama since Patrick is apparently the proto-Obama.

My real point was that there are a lot of young dedicated volunteers at Charlie Baker HQ, which is something to keep in our minds.

[Arkana]

16. Patrick has an ad--but it's a positive ad.

It talks about his record on education, health care, and the state budget.

[Mass]

17. Yes, it has been airing only for a few days. I dont think it had an impact on this poll.

[Recursion]

9. Rasmussen said today the Cahill support was the softest he had ever seen

These guys will break (probably for Baker, unfortunately). Cahill will poll at about 3% statewide. My prediction, at least.