NY-20 Key House Race--Siena Poll--freshman dem Murphy leads by 17-points (won by 700 votes in 09)

[WI_DEM]

This is good news--GOP has been working hard on this one:

Rep. Scott Murphy (D) would easily defeat Republican challenger Chris Gibson if the election in upstate New York's 20th district were held today, according to a Siena College Research Institute poll released Friday morning.

Murphy earned the support of 54 percent of likely voters in this swing district, while Gibson, an Army veteran, garnered 37 percent, based on a survey of 603 likely voters taken Sept. 12-14. The poll had a 4-point margin of error.

That's despite what the pollster calls "a sizable enrollment edge" for Republicans in a district that President George W. Bush won by 8 and 7 points in 2000 and 2004 respectively. However, President Barack Obama carried the district by 3 points in 2008.

Murphy won this seat by a little more than 700 votes in a 2009 special election to replace now-Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D).

And while Murphy has all the makings of a vulnerable freshman incumbent in a bad year for Democrats, Gibson is still unknown by two-thirds of the district and has just one-third the cash on hand as the Congressman.

"Murphy has a bigger lead among Democrats than Gibson has among Republicans, in this district where Republicans have a sizable enrollment edge over the Democrats," said Siena pollster Steven Greenberg. "Murphy also has a sizable two-to-one lead among independent voters."

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/09/poll-murphy-strong-in-upstate.html

[BeyondGeography]

1. Murphy has worked his ass off and he has brought home the bacon

http://scottmurphy.house.gov/News/DocumentSingle.aspx?DocumentID=202137

Every town or hamlet has seen him at least once, and he's not just there for show. Glad to see the voters are rewarding him.

[Cognitive_Resonance]

2. I'm thinking the top of the ticket should help in races like NY-20. nt

[WI_DEM]

3. Clear politics has had this seat rated as a "toss-up" if this poll is accurate

and unlike many polls released it isn't an internal but an independent pollster--then this is very good news.

[Beetwasher]

4. But It's A Repub WAVE I Tells Ya!!!!

I have a feeling Repubs are gonna wake up Nov. 4th and say "Whuh happened?"...