Public Policy Polling (PPP): Boxer up by 8 in California

[WI_DEM]

A lot of Senate races are heading in the wrong direction for Democrats right now but California is not one of them. PPP's newest poll there finds Barbara Boxer continuing to hold onto a 50-42 lead over Carly Fiorina.

Republicans showed in Massachusetts they could win in a state as blue as California but Carly Fiorina isn't proving to have nearly the appeal to Democratic and independent voters that Scott Brown did. Fiorina is winning independents 50-38, a solid margin but well short of the 32 point advantage Brown achieved with those folks against Martha Coakley. And Fiorina is winning only 11% of Democrats, barely half of the 19% Brown got.

Californians are pretty ambivalent toward Barbara Boxer and ambivalence is usually going to get an incumbent in a deep blue state reelected- it takes Jon Corzine sorts of approval numbers to lose in those places. 46% of voters approve of the job Boxer's doing and 46% disapprove. Republicans don't like her at all and independents don't like her very much either, but she continues to be very popular with the Democratic base and if you're strong there in California you win.

And the simple reality is that Fiorina has not proven to be a particularly appealing candidate to California voters. 42% of them see her unfavorably with only 34% rating her positively. Republicans like her, Democrats dislike her almost as much, and independents are slightly negative toward her. Again, not the formula that's going to get a Republican elected to the Senate from California.

One other factor that should be noted here is that Boxer is just about the only vulnerable Democrat seeking reelection in a state where the majority of voters still approve of Barack Obama's performance. His approval is 53/42, and by and large the folks that like Obama are supporting Boxer- California's one of the last frontiers left where he's not a drag.

It's certainly still not impossible Boxer could lose. But it's looking more like this year will be the same old story as Boxer's other reelection runs- hints of vulnerability early, getting it together at the end.


http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/

[still_one]

1. I sense it is correct, but you never know about California /nt

[Kdillard]

2. Go Boxer. Hopefully Brown can get something going in his race for

the Governorship I seriously can't believe California will allow Whitman to become governor.

[Deep13]

3. Voters have been reacting out of anger until now.

As the decision time gets closer, voters begin to think about what a R. victory would actually mean.

[catgirl]

6. I hope the voters in Wisconsin start to think!

Feingold is behind by double digits in a new PPP poll.

[WI_DEM]

9. Wow! I knew about Ras having Russ down by 7, but PPP has him down by dd's.

[Jack Rabbit]

4. This is very good news

I shared part of my meager funds with Senator Boxer's campaign.

There is no one I want to re-elect more than Barbara Boxer and no one I want to defeat more than that monster who for years, by word and deed, has expressed such deep contempt for American workers.

[hlthe2b]

5. thank "Goddess"... hope it sticks...

[Parker CA]

7. Great trend, let's keep it up!! K&R!!!!

[flamingdem]

8. Go BB! nt

[AtomicKitten]

10. Go Babs.

[damonm]

11. Carly had no chance.

She couldn't crack 50% in the polls even BEFORE Boxer started campaigning; now that she has, and she's putting Fiorina's "Profits before People" ethic out for all to see, Fiorina's starting to tank. I expect boxer takes it by DD's come 11/2.

[Cognitive_Resonance]

12. It must be demoralizing to the Republicans to see another Senate seat drifting out of reach. nt

[Clio the Leo]

13. kick! nt

[NewJeffCT]

14. Boxer put out a great ad last week

Basically saying how Fiorina laid off 30,000HP workers while paying herself a huge bonus & buying a million dollar yacht.

I wonder if that helped her in the poll?

[Kdillard]

15. Probabaly. The ad was fantastic and not to mention Barbara

usually seems to pull out her campaigns pretty late in the game.

[BeyondGeography]

16. Sen. Cruella...not gonna happen

(Please.)

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

17. This despite the ridiculous amounts of money that Fiorina is spending?

[Change Happens]

18. Praise the good Lord!!!

Whoever or whatever it might be!!

[ShadowLiberal]

19. I've always been skeptical that Fiorina could win, given her backround as a failed CEO

One thing that politics is all about is branding, and I'm just very skeptical that a person with a brand as a failed CEO fired by the board of directors could win an election in a state like California. Add on the fact that her company's stock went up after she was fired, and the fact that she laid off thousands of employees while being rewarded with millions of dollars in a golden parachute after being fired for incompetence in a year like this with anger over the bailout, Fiorina is running in about the worst possible environment for someone of her brand.

[Warren DeMontague]

21. I've been skeptical because it's been a VERY long time since a hardcore anti-choicer has won a

statewide race.

Let's be realistic, and give credit to the fact that this "values voter" crap has always been massively overblown by the media.

[NBachers]

20. I love having Barbara Boxer as my Senator

[saltpoint]

22. I wouldn't expect Republicans to ever have liked

Barbara Boxer, but of course, their misgivings about her are what the rest of us love about her.

She is incredibly bright and perceptive and capable -- traits no Republican can match. They can't honor those things in her when they don't even know what those things are.

A lot of Boxer supporters see every reason to re-elect her, and they know that they'd lose a great Senator if they stayed home.

I think Barbara Boxer is atop the steamroller and she's got the engine revved up good. Better run, Carly.