Public Policy Polling (PPP) hints that West Virginia senate poll out tomorrow won't be great news

[book_worm]

My guess is that Manchin is up but just narrowly--interesting since Rasmussen just had a poll giving Manchin an 8-point lead:

West Virginia Senate Poll Preview

We're going to have our first look out at the West Virginia Senate race tomorrow and I think there's some chance that could end up being the most fascinating contest of the cycle.

On one hand you have Democrats with their best recruit anywhere in the country. Joe Manchin's 59% approval rating on our poll over the weekend represented the second best we've found for any Governor all year.

On the other hand you have a state where voters, even a lot of the Democrats, are very down on national Democrats and want Republicans to control the next Congress by a 54-37 margin.

A lot of voters fall into both of those categories- they love Joe Manchin and they want Republicans to control the next Congress. This race may be decided by those voters being pulled in both directions and right now their dislike of national Democrats is outweighing their affection for Manchin- those folks go for John Raese 57-29. It's going to be interesting to see how this race develops.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/09/were-going-to-have-our-first-look-out.html

[Kdillard]

1. Ugh. Fingers crossed that they show him with the lead.

People can't have it both ways.

[book_worm]

3. That's the problem--they may want him to remain Governor so they will vote against him for the

senate.

[cyr330]

2. If West Virginians are that stupid. . .

They deserve having a Republican Congress. It's just too bad that the rest of us have to suffer along with them.

[book_worm]

4. I hate to say it but in WVA Manchin will have to run against Obama

because many of those racists in that state have never liked Obama.

[doc03]

7. Exactly his opponent is tying him to Obama, he showed

Manchin and Obama sitting together at Sen. Byrd's funeral service. He is tying him to the HCR bill claiming it will cut $500 billion from medicare. In his radio ads I think he repeats Barack Obama's name about ten times.

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

20. Raese also lied about that photo

claiming he 'had no idea' it was from the funeral - nevermind that the image was on the front page of every paper in the state just a month earlier. or that Obama and Manchin have been together on only two occasions - Byrd's funeral, and the Upper Big Branch memorial

and the idea that Raese, who wants to scrap the minimum wage, is in favor medicare is deceit at its purest

[book_worm]

5. Why are people recommending this? it's not good news, at least from what

I'm reading between the lines.

[Kdillard]

6. Because people need to be informed I guess or repub lurkers. I don't think

keeping your head buried in the sand helps anyone. The Ras poll made me very happy but this can change the dynamics for us keeping the Senate. We really need to see the next series of polls continue to be positive for Dems. I will breathe easier if a lead is shown even if not by 8 points.

[Radical Activist]

8. You won't get me to care about a cheap whore for the coal industry

no matter what party he belongs to. Opposing serious climate change legislation at this point is a defenseless policy that promotes the destruction of the livelihood of millions.

[doc03]

9. You have to consider the alternative Manchin may be a whore

for the coal industry but Raese opposes absolutely everything progressive. Reality check, it's WV anyone that would support Cap and Trade would be an automatic loss.

[Radical Activist]

10. My alternative is not helping a bad candidate

(who I couldn't have done much to help anyway). And frankly, I doubt Manchin will be there on many of the tough votes for any progressive issue. Blanch Lincolns are a waste of time and effort because they never deliver when it really counts.

[doc03]

12. So let the Republicans take the Senate and the House and see

what you get. I have little use for Manchin either but the alternative is far worse. It's WV that is the best you will ever get from that state.

[Radical Activist]

15. Democrats will have the majority anyway.

Manchin could have more influence in the Democratic caucus than any Republican would. That gives him more power to weaken and defeat progressive legislation than some whack job Republican would just be ignored. That's not a good thing. What I'll get from Manchin is no different than what I'll get from a Republican when it really counts.

And frankly, anyone at this point who's willing to look the other way while we pursue energy policies that will result in millions of people losing their homes, jobs and lives isn't fit for public office. Any office.

[doc03]

18. Oh the election is over and the Democrats have the

majority? I wouldn't bet the farm on that. You are part of the professional left I guess, if you don't get your way you elect a Republican, boy that will show em.

[ProSense]

11. Well, the GOP candidate lost an endorsement today.

US Chamber snubs GOP nominee in W.Va. Senate

[Radical Activist]

13. Getting a Chamber of Commerce endorsement

is a strong sign that Manchin doesn't hold Democratic Party values.

[Mass]

14. Probably true, but at least a Democratic Senate will leave the Dems set the agenda.

It is still better than leader McConnell, IMHO.

[Radical Activist]

16. Leader McConnell is not a realistic worry at this point.

It's just another Democrat we'll have to moan about later and take on in a future primary just like Lieberman or Lincoln.

[quiller4]

17. I doubt that. Manchin is up by 7 in Rasmussen. I suspect he is

up by more in the PPP poll but that the other polling data shows a diificult time for Oliverio, Graf and Rahall.

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

19. joe Manchin took things for granted

He let Raese have the airwaves unopposed for all of August and a good chunk of September. He only began airing his ads last week.

There's a chance that PPP's numbers may be taken before Manchin took the air, but don't be surprised if John Raese is even or ahead. He's been running attack ads nonstop in every commercial break on W.Va. TV. And he owns a good chunk of the media in the state and has been getting a free ride.

It's Gore 2000 all over agin - we kept hearing W.Va. was a lock for Al, due to its history, Clinton's popularity, etc. Gore took it for granted and stayed out. Bush came here multiple times and had large rallies. When fall rolled around, pundits were shocked - but most here saw it coming. Gore tried to come in and minimize the damge, but it was too late.

Manchin did the same thing. he assumed he had it in the bag and sat the summer out. Raese has been campaigning nonstop.

Raese makes Rand Paul look sane - he confirmed just this week that he wants to do away with the minimum wage.

as detailed here:

"John does not support the minimum wage - and the jobless rate in this country is a perfect example of why," said campaign manager Jim Dornan. "He's for a fair wage, and a fair wage is determined by the market."

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x9169702

Raese is as big a scumbag as they come. Let's not forget that this is a guy who attacked Senator Byrd over where he chose to bury his wife of 69 years:

In his failed pitch, Raese tried to shift attention from his own status as a part-time West Virginian by attacking Senator Byrd over the burial of his wife Erma in 2006. Byrd had chosen to have his wife buried in nearby Virginia. Raese tried to portray it as some kind of lack of love by Byrd for his home state.

Mrs. Byrd had died just three months earlier.

The Gazette, 2006

"In an interview with a Parkersburg newspaper, Raese deflected a question about his residency, saying he is in the state more than Byrd, D-W.Va. He then questioned where Erma Ora Byrd, who died in March, is buried."

Pretty vile, isn't it?

Most people would offer condolences and sympathy when a man loses his wife of 69 years. Raese looked at Byrd's loss and saw the opportunity for yet another attack..

http://wvablue.com/diary/6070/raeses-ad-is-only-his-latest-display-of-his-lack-of-decency

Of course, the sad part of all of this is that we didn't even have to have this election. Manchin could have appointed a replacement until 2012. Or appointed himself.

But he didn't want to rub voters the wrong way and asked the legislature to change the law and put the seat on the 2010 ballot instead.