GOP has tough road to win House

[babylonsister]

Yea, I know, politico, but it's nice to read an occasional voice of reason.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0910/42429.html

GOP has tough road to win House

By MARTIN FROST | 9/21/10 4:39 AM EDT


For the past month, most of the national press has been uncritically swallowing a steady diet of Republican propaganda: The race for the House is over; the Republicans have already won.

As someone who has been involved in congressional politics for more than 30 years and served as Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairman for the 1996 and 1998 cycles, I questioned this. Instead, I took a state-by-state look at the electoral map, particularly after POLITICO published a bipartisan Battleground Poll on Sept. 16 that showed the generic ballot between Republicans and Democrats to be a 43 percent to 43 percent dead heat nationally.

snip//

Even if everything breaks for the GOP, short of a total national blowout, they would have to win all the seats identified to get to the magic number of 43.

So it looks as if this election is far from over. Some seats now thought to be in play for the GOP could slip away; others thought to be safely Democratic could open up.

In addition, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and its chairman, Rep. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, have done a remarkable job of getting Democrats ready under adverse circumstances.

The bottom line: A GOP House majority is not a done deal. Individual campaigns and candidates make a difference. It is certainly possible that the Republicans could get close but fall a handful of seats short.

That’s why we have elections. The press does not determine the winners.

[The Magistrate]

1. Mr. Frost Knows The Business, Ma'am

[Cosmocat]

9. yes and no ...

he is taking a half step out of the box ...

His second to last line - the Rs would come close but fall short still gives them too much credit, frankly ...

They have to hit the lotto to get the house, to be honest ... But, the "liberal" media orders remain - Ds in trouble, Rs on the prowl, that is how it ALL is couched, all the time ...

Someone posted a poll on the board today, a D in a race polling 48-40 over his R opponent ... That is a REAL signficant margin, 48 is 2 short of 50, and in the last six weeks ... That is a prohibitive poll for the challenger, no other way to spin it ... Except, the pollster, who did the usual tamping down since it was a D ... Any R who has that margin in a race at this point would get the pack it in, it is over treatment ...

It would happen, but the more likely worst case scenario is what even the author of this piece made out to be the Ds best case scenario - the Rs falling a few short ...

The more realistic odds have the Rs picking up 25-30 seats in the house ...

But, make no mistake, the spin goes their way if that happens to ...

The Ds make a 30 seat gain in the House but fall short of the 39 to get control, they failed to take the house ... It was the doomsday scenario and they didn't get it done, so the Rs have their mandate ...

Rs get 25-30 seats and it will be a referendum on BO that means they Ds should do nothing other than rubber stamp what the minority wants ...

Jesus ... When Bush won, all we heard about for 5 years was the permanent republican majority, with them having a smaller margin in both houses than the Ds have had the last two years ... The Ds have a larger margin in both houses the last two years than the Rs had, but it has been two years of baited breathe over the Rs getting congress back ...

[Proud Liberal Dem]

2. "most of the national press has been uncritically swallowing a steady diet of Republican propaganda"

That's rich- coming from somebody writing for Politico. Nice of them to join us in reality.
:eyes:

Methinks that they rushed to judgement too soon because they were only paying attention to the Republican "election blowout" narrative and the "Tea Party". Now that President Obama and the Democratic Party has joined the battle, they are trying to stay ahead of the curve so that they don't look too crazy when the Democrats don't end up doing so badly (and the Republicans don't end up doing so well).

Still, it's refreshing to hear something than the "all-gloom, all-the-time for Democrats" narrative that has dominated the headlines since last summer.

[babylonsister]

3. It's an opinion piece; I don't know that he 'works' for them. nt

[Proud Liberal Dem]

4. Well

still nice to hear a voice of sanity in a sea of confusion and hyperbole.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

5. As a political scientist, the one thing that makes me want to vomit is all of this holier-than-thou

attitude coming from the so-called "punditry."

Anyone who knows anything about politics is that things can change from day to day. Politics is very fickle. The conventional wisdom isn't set in stone and could be upset by major events, good and bad. The electorate are fickle. Voters themselves don't really make up their minds until the last minute. If conventional wisdom holds, those left undecided tend to break for the challenger, but even that hasn't proven true. For example, Rachel Maddow is doing a great job tracking the status of incumbents. She rightfully notes that all but 8 incumbents have won their primaries. ALL BUT 8!! And still the Corporate Media continues to push this meme that somehow, the so-called "outsiders" are going to challenge and break the two-party establishment. I wouldn't be so sure about that. Politics is fickle.

Even a weekend event, a la the weekend before the Bush-Kerry election in 2004 when bin Laden's video tape surfaced, can change the trajectory of an election. Arafat's death even had some impact on Election 2004. What is more is the fact that we live in a changing society. The older generations are dying off. The younger generations--many of which don't care about gay marriage--are coming to their own. Sure, the Republicans *MAY* do well in November, but in the very long term, those who support them are dying off. They will be forced to rethink this Southern Strategy that has worked for them for so many years.

Still...

Politics is fickle. It is not a straightforward science.

And I believe that if enough of us turn out to vote and bring our friends and families, we can bunk the conventional wisdom, and once and for all, prove the punditry WRONG!!

[flpoljunkie]

6. Intriguing that the 'magic number' is actually 43 and not 39.

Unquestionably, there is an enthusiasm gap that favors Republican turnout. But does this translate into the 43 seats for the Republicans to take control of the House? The actual number needed is probably 43, not 39 as reported — most observers acknowledge that the Democrats have a real chance to take as many as four seats now held by Republicans.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0910/42429.html

[vaberella]

7. The thing people on our side seem to be forgetting is that they still have a road available.

We can't let our guard down...jump on this and tear them apart---they are losing a lot of space, but we shouldn't focus on that alone. We have a lot of stuff to worry about.

[Kdillard]

8. I like the last part especially. The press wants a

story and have been trying to make one for months

[Beetwasher]

10. I Love The High Bar Repubs Set

Love it.