PPP: West Virginia Senate Shocker! Raese (R) 46% Manchin (D) 43%

[WI_DEM]

Even Rasmussen with his WVA Senate numbers yesterday with the Dem up by 7 was a lot better than this:

Close Race in West Virginia

PPP's first look at the West Virginia Senate contest finds a very tight race with John Raese up 46-43 on Joe Manchin, a result within the poll's margin of error.

The contest provides a fascinating choice for voters in the state who love their Democratic Governor but hate the party's ranks in Washington DC that he would be joining.

Manchin is the second most popular Governor PPP has polled on all year, behind only Bobby Jindal, with a 59/32 approval spread. He breaks almost even with Republicans as 42% of them approve of the job he's doing with just 44% disapproving. In a highly polarized political climate the list of politicians with that kind of crossover popularity is very short.

At the same time West Virginians couldn't be much more down on national Democrats. Barack Obama's approval rating in the state is just 30% with 64% of voters disapproving of him. Even within his own party barely half of voters, at 51%, like the job he's doing. Support from Republicans (91% disapproval) and independents (73% disapproval) is pretty much nonexistent.

Given the President's high degree of unpopularity it's no surprise that 54% of voters in the state want Republicans to control the next Congress with just 37% wanting the Democrats to stay in charge. GOP voters (91-3) and independents (66-21) are pretty universal in their desire for a Republican majority and even 25% of Democrats say they'd like to see a change.

22% of voters in the state have the competing impulses of both liking Manchin and wanting Republicans to control the next Congress. With those folks Raese leads 57-29 and that's fueling his slight overall advantage.

Despite Manchin's 42% approval rating with Republicans he's getting only 14% of their votes. And in spite of a +8 approval spread with independents, he trails Raese 56-30 with them. Raese also leads 47-41 with another key group- the Democrats that disapprove of Obama.

These poll numbers show a much more favorable race for Raese than anything that's been released publicly to date so I'd suggest caution in declaring too much momentum for the Republicans in West Virginia before other data confirms it. But one thing is definitely clear: this race is not going to be a slam dunk for Democrats as might have been hoped at one time.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/

[WI_DEM]

1. The thing is WVA may want to keep him governor so will vote against him for senate.

[Cha]

3. He's that popular, huh!?

But, he really wants to be Senator!

[Kdillard]

2. Ugh l was hoping it was the other way around. Future polls will tell the story.

I also understand he needs to run against Obama over there.

[Pirate Smile]

4. He got the law changed so he could run this year. We didn't have to defend this seat. He picked

this god damn fight. We could have had a Dem sitting there until 2012. @%$% you Manchin.

Sorry. But, yes, I'm feeling quite hostile toward him and his ego for pulling this crap.

[WI_DEM]

5. I agree--he should have just appointed an interim senator, but he wanted it to be him

so if we lose we can thank the governor and his ambition. But it's way too soon to know if we lose.

[FBaggins]

19. No he didn't

Hey clarified the law. Had they not done so, there would have been a lawsuit that we would have lost (easily) and then the race might not have even been competitive. It would look like we were tryin to game the system.

[bigdarryl]

6. So these back wood racist are going to not vote for Manchin because of Obama?

lame excuse Obama was never popular in West VA.

[dkf]

7. Everyone who doesn't like Obama and his policies is a racist?

We sure do throw that word around lightly here.

[doc03]

10. Well I live in the Ohio valley tri state WV/Ohio/PA

area maybe not everyone but it is a significant part of it. The N word is an everyday thing here and John Murtha was exactly right when he called his constituents rednecks. Raese's whole campaign so far is connecting Manchin with Obama, in this one ad I think he repeats "Barrack Obama" ten times I am surprised he doesn't say "Barack Hussein Obama". Then the low life uses a picture of Manchin and Obama sitting together at Senator Byrd's funeral. Obama probably should have sent the VP to the funeral and stayed in DC.

[AspenRose]

14. Ever lived in West Virginia?

I have. Upshur County, to be exact.

They've been trending republican since Bush, and have abandoned their democratic historical trends, in large part, because of the xenophobic GOP contingency. West Virginians are distrustful of outsiders, and while there are definite exceptions to the rule, they've got serious issues with racism.

Let's revisit 2008, for perspective:

White Voters Shun Obama as Clinton Wins West Virginia
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/white-voters-shun-obama-as-clinton-wins-west-virginia-827710.html


Obama Faces Racism in West Virginia
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c-q4MDQ0cDI



"This recent Financial Times piece about West Virginia voters quotes a "lifelong Democrat":

"I heard that Obama is a Muslim and his wife's an atheist," said Mr Simpson, drawing on a cigarette outside the fire station in Williamson, a coalmining town of 3,400 people surrounded by lush wooded hillsides."

http://gawker.com/389976/old-white-people-know-the-truth-about-barack-obama


So yeah, sometimes "throwing that word around here" is perfectly justified.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. LOL

And a back woods one at that.

[golfguru]

21. Yes, if you say anything against Obama, you must be a racist

I see that again and again here. No wonder racism goes on.
Racism is thrown around without thinking. If racism was so prevalent,
Obama could never have been elected POTUS.

[doc03]

8. All Raese is doing is tying Manchin to Obama, that's all

it takes in WV. Raese's radio ad I heard this morning has Manchin saying I support the health care bill over and over and Raese says Manchin supported a bill that cuts $500 billion out of Medicare.

[WI_DEM]

9. that's the perception that the GOP is being very skillful at using this year

that Obama is cutting Medicare.

[KingFlorez]

11. Big difference in favorables from the Rasmussen poll

Manchin had 10% higher approval in that poll and therefore a lead. If you average both polls together, you still get a 2 point Manchin lead.

[scheming daemons]

12. I live 40 miles from the WV border and go there often... Manchin isn't going to lose

Trust me.

[WI_DEM]

16. well even PPP says that they would like to see the results of a third survey

[Mass]

13. Seems PPP says to be careful about these results until other results say the same thing.

I suggest that we follow their advice.

The problem is that people tend to believe too much every single poll (this sometimes makes them look bipolar). There is a difference between WI, where every single poll this month shows Feingold losing, and WV, where one poll shows Manchin losing. Until other data confirms that, it is very possible that this poll is an outliar, as good as PPP is generally.

[WI_DEM]

17. That's why I included that PPP comment re: its poll.

[liberalpragmatist]

18. This is probably an outlier, but I think it will be tight...

... and I felt from the beginning that it was extremely stupid for Manchin to have the law changed so he could run this year.

I suppose Manchin's thinking was that in 2012 Obama would be on the ballot, and could drag him down, but it's quite possible (even probable) that the national climate for Democrats will be better in 2012, so even if Obama loses the state he won't be as big a drag on the ticket as he will be this year. Plus, in 2012, voters who want to vote against Obama could just vote against Obama, whereas this year, they'll take their anger out on Manchin. And besides, if Manchin wins, he'll still have to run in 2012 anyway!

It's a stupid, self-inflicted wound, and it may cost us a seat. Popular governors routinely lose Senate bids (Weld in MA, '96; Hunt in NC, '84; Sullivan in WY, '94; Ben Nelson in NE, '96), and there was no reason to think that an open-seat race, in a bright red state, in a Republican year, would be anything better than a tossup.

[Doctor_J]

20. 54% of WVns want to go back to the rule of 2000-2006

You can't fix ignorant.