PPP/KOS: WI Senate: Johnson: 52% Feingold 41%

[WI_DEM]

From living in WI I can state that Russ is in trouble. I just didn't think it was this bad. Rasmussen had a poll the other day showing Russ down by 7--and now PPP/Kos has him down by 11. Russ's ads are non-existent and when I do see one they are bad. Johnson is on the air constantly and defining this race:


WI-Sen/WI-Gov: Dems hurting with six weeks to go
by Steve Singiser
Tue Sep 21, 2010 at 08:46:03 AM PDT
Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos. U.S. Senate. 9/18-9/19. Likely Voters. MoE 3.8% (6/27 results)

Ron Johnson (R) 52 (43)
Sen. Russ Feingold (D) 41 (45)



An enormous enthusiasm gap, coupled with a Republican nominee fresh from a decisive primary win and unsullied by the primary process, has catapulted Republican nominee Ron Johnson to a double-digit advantage over incumbent Democrat Russ Feingold, according to PPP's poll of the state on behalf of Daily Kos.

In November of 2008, then-candidate Barack Obama swept through the Midwest, winning many states (including Wisconsin) by double digits. Today, the President's numbers are nearly reversed in the Badger State: whereas Obama carried the state 56-42 in 2008, his job approval now is 41%, with 54% expressing disapproval. This is a tendency that has been mimicked throughout the Midwest, and may well explain why this region seems to be the one vexing Democrats the most this cycle.

The malaise with Democratic voters in the state is unmistakable, and is having a material.

Wisconsin is seeing one of the most severe enthusiasm gaps in the country. If turnout matched 2008 Johnson would be leading Feingold only 47-46 and Barrett would be ahead of Walker 46-44. Right now these races look very difficult but if Democrats wake up between now and November they have the potential to become toss ups.

Johnson has pretty decent favorability marks (46% positive, 32% negative), in part due to the fact that his opponents lacked the resources to lay a glove on him in the recently completed GOP primary. That won't be the case in the general, and the neophyte candidate has given Feingold plenty of ammunition with the lack of symmetry between his anti-goverment rhetoric and his personal history of having his hand out to the government with astonishing frequency.

If Feingold can make the election about Johnson, he has a chance of resurrecting this race. Clearly, he needs to find some formula for bringing the Democratic base to the polls in order to win. Perhaps Johnson will prove himself to be the kind of villain to motivate Democrats into action


www.dailykos.com

[WI_DEM]

1. I think the so-called rust belt will not be good for dems this year.

[ProSense]

2. What the hell is going on in WI?

Boxer is regaining a solid lead. Coons is kicking the teabaggers' butts.

Where are Feingold's supporters?

[WI_DEM]

4. Dems are still solid for him it's independents who have soured on him and WA democrats

[vaberella]

6. I have no idea what's going on there?! n/t

[dennis4868]

3. It will be a sad day in America...

when a person as smart and caring for the country like Feingold is voted out....I only wish people voted based entirely on the facts and evidence....there would only be a few repubs left in congress.

[vaberella]

5. I get the feeling Feingold is out. I wonder why though? Why did his people turn on him? n/t

[NoNothing]

10. As a WI resident, my take:

Feingold has just been way too low-profile. His signature piece of legislation, McCain-Feingold, was passed eons ago, and has largely been gutted and proved ineffective over time. Since then, he's been practically invisible in Wisconsin. He just seems oddly aloof from all the big issues of the day. His maverick votes, while mavericky, have almost never effected anything meaningful and have had zero real impact on the voters here. People right now are immensely dissatisfied with the status quo and want ACTION, and Feingold, while a Nice Guy and a Straight Shooter, is definitely not a Man of Action. He needs to change that perception, fast.

[WI_DEM]

13. I agree with much of your assessment. People outside of WI also may find it hard to believe, but

Herb Kohl is much more popular in WI than Feingold and always has been and has always had an easier time winning re-election. It's sad and I hope Russ can turn it around, but all along he has been the Dem incumbant (other than Lincoln) who I thought would have the hardest time. Russ has been vastly outspent and Johnson is defining this race--meanwhile the only Feingold ad I see is that constant one of what Russ has done for military families, etc--it's okay but we need something bigger and better. His ad campaign has been disappointing.

[vaberella]

15. Damn. He is out.

I don't see how he can do much---maybe if he votes for the new bill. But that's not enough. Wow, duno what to say.

[Dawson Leery]

27. This is going to be an atrocity

:argh:

[golfguru]

40. It is strictly the job picture and economy in WI

[leveymg]

7. "It's the economy, stupid."

And, it's horrifying that this was allowed to get to this point before the Democratic establishment noticed they had a real problem on their hands. It may take down one of the few real Senate progressives, and a damn good one. A real moment of shame.

[vaberella]

16. WEll the posters above who live there say otherwise.

It's not the economy so much as it's his own ineffectiveness in the past couple of years.

[RBInMaine]

32. Why aren't there enough armies of highly motivated progressives to save one of their own?

[SemiCharmedQuark]

34. That's odd. I've heard that if Dems were progressive like Russ Feingold, they'd sweep the country

Why is Russ Feingold paying the price? Why aren't progressives rallying to him, driving to GOTV, donating money...?

[Uzybone]

35. because the internet "left" is all bark no bite

the freaking Tealiban actually puts muscle behind thier guys.

[WI_DEM]

8. Here are some cross tabs:

Russ Feingold Ron Johnson Undecided
All 41 52 7
Women 43 49 7
Men 39 55 6
McCain Voters 8 87 4
Obama Voters 76 18 7
Someone else/Don't remember 24 45 31
Democrat 80 11 9
Republican 9 88 3
Independent/Other 40 51 9
Liberal 82 15 3
Moderate 58 34 8
Conservative 9 85 6
White 40 54 6
African-American 58 33 8
Other 39 36 25
18 to 29 47 45 8
30 to 45 33 60 7
46 to 65 43 51 6
Older than 65 44 49 7
Southeastern Wisconsin Excluding Milwaukee 31 61 7
Milwaukee 51 42 6
Southwest Wisconsin 52 41 8
Northern Wisconsin 40 56 4
Northeastern Wisconsin 35 57 8

15% of liberals are voting against Russ and 11% of Dems--meanwhile Russ only has a 2-point lead with 18-29 years olds and leads in Milwaukee by only 51-42. He is behind among indies by 11-points.

By comparison Tom Barrett who is runnng for Governor leads by 16 among 18-29 year olds and does better than Feingold in Milwaukee and Southwest WI--and among dems.

[SemiCharmedQuark]

36. WTF are more liberals voting against Feingold than Dems?

Conservative Dems exist, but why would liberals vote against him? Even if they're pissed about FinReg, they must understand that not voting for him hands that seat over to the Republican!

What the hell kind of liberal votes for a Republican!?

[andym]

41. So much for the idea of a progressive majority

At least in the state of Wisconsin, one of the homes of the original progressive movement.

Feingold is winning Liberals 82:15 and Moderates 58:34, but losing among Conservatives 9:85 and overall losing in this poll by 41:52 (11 points), showing there are more conservatives in this poll than liberals and moderates combined.

Also shows that most self-described conservatives really are conservative in the way one expects.

[Thrill]

9. Running from the President isn't smart

.

[vaberella]

17. That's what crossed my mind when I saw some of the commens of WI residents above. n/t

[impik]

11. Maybe next time he won't oppose WS reform and won't spend months

on investigating the president's people.

[WI_DEM]

12. Financial reform was the most popular bill according to polls passed by the administration

and I've spoken to many dems here who were surprised that Feingold did oppose it even though it wasn't perfect many of these same people felt it was better than doing nothing.

[vaberella]

18. That says so much WI. He basically handed it over. n/t

[DCBob]

33. opposing finreg was dumb.

very dumb.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

14. Give it some time....

Johnson basically had no credible opponent in the primary, and so he's had an easy pass so far. Feingold has already started banging away on Johnson for being opposed to "government spending" while his own company received grants from the government. And then there's the fact that "his own company" was actually his father-in-law's company. Johnson is a classic example of a guy born on third base who thinks he hit a triple -- he married into his wealth and success.

Feingold is going to descroy this empty suit when they debate.

[vaberella]

19. Let's hope that's enough. There's other's saying otherwise. n/t

[Beetwasher]

20. Yeah, Hopefully Russ Is Just Getting Started

And this poll is an outlier.

[LiberalAndProud]

22. I hope there is enough time.

And money. Feingold is one of the few voices speaking out for us.

[WI_DEM]

23. I hope so, but how many people really pay attention to Senatorial debates?

in the end it will come out to the grass roots and getting dems off their asses and voting.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

28. It will, and that's where I think Russ may have an edge

The guy is legendary for paying attention to the voters. He holds Town Hall meetings in every county in the state on an annual basis. The "he's out of touch with Wisconsin" schtick won't work on him. Johnson is trying to BUY this seat and Russ has clearly EARNED the right to keep it. I think most Wisconsinites understand the difference.

[Dawson Leery]

29. Then why is he down by 11%?

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

38. Because all voters know about the guy is his commercials...

There was basically no opposition in the primary and no debate. There's been little to no outside money coming in to run counter-advertising, so Johnson has had a free pass up till now.

Russ will shred him in the debate.

[flpoljunkie]

21. Is the multimillionaire Republican Johnson ducking debates, as well?

Feingold would wipe the floor with him.

[GSLevel9]

24. all I can say is... thank GOD for Christine O'donnell. lol nt

WI looking bleak, now WV looking competitive... DE may have been seat #51!

[zulchzulu]

25. Feingold is about to release a bunch of anti-Johnson ads

That's what I heard from some people I know who are involved in the campaign. That said, the 50%+ threshold is a bit scary.

[Blue Owl]

26. No mention of the illegal GOP vote caging going on in Wisconsin?

How will this factor into the election?

Will the Democrats just ignore it and let the Repukes cheat to win?

'Cause I don't see any momentum swinging the GOP's way.

[jonestonesusa]

31. I think there was pretty effective opposition to the state AG's vote stealing

We actually drove down to Madison for two of the hearings on the voter caging, as you called it, in 2008. The circuit judge made a pretty good call to stop the wanton scrubbing of voter rolls. The governor and the election board are pretty good advocates for fair elections. But the AG (JB Van Hollen something or other) still thinks he's Jeb Bush, and it's helped produce conditions for a close Senate election. As shallow as the Tea Party nonsense is, it's filling a vacuum where we need to talk about core solutions to the big issues. I hope this can be done in the last weeks of the campaign.

[jonestonesusa]

30. Sad to say, but the enthusiasm gap is here because of a few reasons

I live in Western Wisconsin, that lately has been strongly leaning democratic. I think more than anything this year, the lack of high profile issues and visibility for Democrats is hurting them. Yes, it's the economy stupid - but what's our plan? Nationally, we've been running away from the legislation we have passed, at least health care reform and the stimulus. What are we for? We can't win this election just by opposing Republicans, and I don't think we have a party consensus for what the next step is. And as much as I have respect for Pres. Obama, I think the legislative priorities and campaign strategies need to be aligned better. If this is Tim Kaine's coming out party (did I spell that right for the new DNC chair), it may not be a good statement on his effectiveness.

And, the endless focus on the Tea Party in all journalistic outlets is reinforcing the perception of Democratic disarray. And, I do think the enthusiasm gap is real, since the Democratic base doesn't always know what it's going to get for legislative proposals. The numbers posted upthread on African American lukewarm support for Feingold is also telling - one of the core Dem. constituencies is not sold fully on Feingold. Even with these voters, the lack of a Marshall Plan for American cities (which Obama and Feingold ought to be pushing) is contributing to the problem.

We all got work to do - in Wisconsin as well as elsewhere, to stop the drift toward Republican-led gridlock.

[hendo]

37. Johnson is just skeezy

every time I see his face in an ad I want to puke.

[Zoeisright]

39. There's nothing dumber than idiots kicking out an experienced and qualified

senator. The new person starts all over again in terms of committee appointments and rankings. Anybody who votes for that dimwit Johnson over Feingold deserves what he gets.

[JCMach1]

42. Feingold always seems to win in close races... I think he will close this one out

and take it by 1 or 2.

[budkin]

43. I hope for the best but it looks like he's done.