PPP: Dems lead congressional ballot in CA 51-38; 46-44 CA favors gay marriage

[WI_DEM]

-Democrats lead the generic Congressional ballot in California 51-38. Both parties have their base pretty much locked up- 89% of Republicans say they'll vote for their party's nominee and 87% of Democrats say the same for theirs. Independents split toward the GOP but only by a 34-29 margin much smaller than the party's seeing in most states.

I don't know how much the generic ballot tells us about whether any House seats will change hands in California this year, but it does show that Barbara Boxer and Jerry Brown are under performing their party's base numbers even if they're still ahead. Boxer's 8 point lead and Brown's 5 point advantage run well behind the generic numbers.

-In the Lieutenant Governor's race Democratic challenger Gavin Newsom has a slight edge over Republican incumbent Abel Maldonado, 39-36. Maldonado's doing what Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina haven't shown the ability to do- win over a significant number of Democrats. Maldonado's getting 17% crossover support. Newsom's winning overall though because he's keeping it tight with independents (just a 35-31 disadvantage) and winning 11% of Republicans, which is more than Boxer or Brown can claim.

-Voters in the state remain pretty evenly divided on gay marriage with 46% saying they think it should be legal and 44% saying illegal. That tightness is pretty consistent with what we saw on the Prop 8 vote in 2008. Despite the tightness of the overall numbers it's pretty clear that there will be strong support for gay marriage with the passage of time- voters under 45 support it by a 57-35 margin.