Self-fulfilling Prophecy Department: The Democratic “Punt”

[babylonsister]

http://www.samefacts.com/2010/09/politics-and-leadership/self-fulfilling-prophecy-department-the-democratic-punt/

Self-fulfilling Prophecy Department: The Democratic “Punt”
by Jonathan Zasloff


Josh Marshall and Jonathan Chait are fighting back aneurysms upon hearing the news that Capitol Hill Democrats will not put forth a bill maintaining middle-class tax cuts.

But Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid aren’t stupid. They did what they had to do. This was the best of a bad series of choices.

Here were their options:

1) Bring up the middle-class tax cut bill free-standing in the House. The Republicans would offer a “Motion to Recommit” to the Ways and Means Committee with instructions to include the tax cuts for the rich. With Blue Dog support, it would have won. No go.

2) Bring up the middle-class tax cut bill freestanding in the Senate. The Republicans would offer an amendment to include the tax cuts for the rich. It could have won: 41 Republicans plus Lieberman, Lincoln, Pryor, Landrieu, Ben Nelson, Bayh, Hagan, Dorgan, Baucus, Conrad, and then maybe Bill Nelson, Webb, or Warner. Then where would you be?

3) Bring up the middle-class tax cut bill free-standing in the House under a “Suspension of the Rules,” which requires a two-thirds vote and is not subject to the Motion to Recommit. My favorite option, because theoretically, the Republicans would be in a bind. Either they would vote no, in which case they would have voted no on a tax cut, or they would have voted yes, in which case the Dems win and they tick off their base. BUT — they probably would have split, meaning that the Dems would not have not gotten a win AND the partisan difference would have been muddied.

In other words, there was no way to get an actual win under these circumstances. You could only get a loss that would muddy the partisan split.

snip//

Ironically, though, critics like Marshall and Chait could undermine the strategy if the meme becomes “Democrats cave.” If instead the meme becomes, “Democrats refuse to borrow $700 billion to pay off billionaires,” then it looks like they are stronger, not weaker. Marshall and Chait are calling it like they see it, and I take their points, but they are creating some bad spin here: let’s not let the complaints become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

[rurallib]

1. Thank you. After hearing all day how the Dems 'caved'

it is nice to see some real analysis.

[kentuck]

2. I think this is a correct assessment...

and have said so. I think Josh is wrong on this one. And he is very rarely wrong.

[Exilednight]

3. This will not be solved until after January 1st ..........

That is when the tax cuts expire. Once they expire, then Obama can make the claim that rethugs are holding up legislation to induce tax cuts for 98% of Americans. Until then, the only mantra is that Obama wants to raise taxes.

This is a stupid move by the Obama administration. The country is overwhelming behind him on extending tax cuts to the bottom 98%.

[KoKo]

4. Yes...they had no choice. Better to Punt than to stand up for MC Tax Cut and Shame the 1%

I realize too many Dem Seats were at stake.

I understand that, hopefully, when those in those seats win, that the Dems will fight for MC Tax Cuts before the whole thing expires and will make sure they do a Presser on how the Middle Class needs those tax cuts more than the Wealthy 1 or 2% of our nations Wealthiest.

I'm sure that they will make such a strong case for their vote that we can kick off 2012 Election January 1st from a position of strength and power. We can show that our prudence in not making an issue of letting the Bush Tax Cuts Expire...but using it to reinstate fairness back to the Clinton Tax Rates allowed us to Maintain healthy voting margins in the House and Senate.

Everyone will be praised for the Prudence and Cleverness of Pelosi and Reid to have the cunning and savvy to put this vote off until after the Mid-terms.

It's what makes politics work. Having the ability to know when to hold them and know when to fold them.

[elizm]

7. Just one problem with that...GOP will control the House then...

And maybe even the Senate. NOTHING will get done.

[smoochpooch]

5. OK, so we still get to use it as a campaign issue, but according to the article the rich end up gett...

So, there aren't enough votes to pass ONLY the middle-class extension now. So how the hell are Dems going to do it after the elections when they have either a) smaller majorities or b) are in the minority? Or are they hoping BlueDogs will change their minds after the elections during the lame duck period?


It's the same thing as healthcare when people said "they'll just fix it later." Bullshit, they won't have a majority like this for years so if they don't get it done now, they won't get it done. Then Speaker Boehner brings a vote in the House and poof, "GOP gives Americans tax cuts" taking all the credit and Dems have to vote for all the cuts including for the wealthy.

Someone explain to me how the rich DON'T get their tax cuts at this point.

[old mark]

6. On "fixing it later" - Medicare was signed in 1965, and a very important "fix" -

Part D, covering prescription drugs was passed to fix a serious lack - in 2006, 41 years later, and the GOP made it so that the pharmaceutical companies made fortunes on it while the people who needed the drugs got some relief, and then the famous "donut hole"...

The Administration's idea that we can "fix" the Health Reform act later is wishful thinking at best, and political bullshit at the most likely.

Mark

[flpoljunkie]

8. Make the R's, Blue Dogs vote no under the suspension of the rules. They would be fools to do so.

And, how is it going to be easier to vote for the middle class tax cuts without extending the Bush tax cuts for the top 2% with fewer Democrats in the Senate--because the 'open seat' Senators will take their seats right away.