Rudd's showdown at the Last Chance SaloonJune 7, 2010
The Australian electorate has delivered its first political death threat to Kevin Rudd. For the first time since Rudd became Labor leader, a major opinion poll has found that the voting public would decisively reject the party at an election.
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The speed of the collapse in Labor's support suggests not a drift but a rupture - Rudd's popularity has collapsed from 59 per cent to 41 per cent in two months.
And the government's standing has suffered accordingly. "This is a big protest against the government,'' said the Herald's pollster, Nielsen's John Stirton. ''It looks like a protest against Kevin Rudd."
This is not necessarily fatal. John Howard came back from much worse. Neither is it necessarily good news for Tony Abbott. His approval rating is falling even as his party's fortunes are rising.
But this is the first unequivocal evidence that the Rudd government is not just suffering superficial scorching by a few licking flames of public dissatisfaction. He is in real danger of being completely consumed by an angry electoral fire.
Why?
The threshold event appears to have been Rudd's decision to shelve his proposed emissions trading scheme until at least the end of 2012. Rudd's commitment to action on climate change was a deep part of his political persona.
By so easily abandoning it, he raised an existential question in the public mind - if he doesn't stand for this, what does he stand for? If we can't believe his commitment to this, which commitment can we believe?This would help explain why only one in 10 of Labor's lost votes has moved to the (far & center right) Coalition, which is even more climate-sceptic than Rudd. And why the Greens' share of the vote has surged to a record high of 15 per cent in today's poll.
More:
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/rudds-showdown-at-the-last-chance-saloon-20100606-xn7x.html