PPP: Dem candidates running well below Obama's approval rating among black voters

[WI_DEM]

(I think these margins will close greatly in the closing days--the ? is what will turnout be among black voters, and Dem voters in general?)

Tuesday, September 28, 2010
Democrats underperforming with black voters

One of the things giving Democratic candidates across the country trouble this year that has perhaps not gotten as much attention as it should is that they are really under polling with black voters. It's a given that black turnout is going to be way down from its 2008 levels this year but more troublesome for Democratic candidates is that they are running well behind Barack Obama's approval numbers with African Americans in almost every key race we've polled over the last six weeks.

There's a couple ways to look at that. One is that polling frequently underestimates Democratic performance with black voters further out from an election and that 90% of them will vote Democratic as they usually do. If that's the case polls right now are underestimating the party's candidates across the board and Democrats won't do as poorly in November as the current conventional wisdom. The other way to look at it is that black voters, like other voters, are less enthused with the Democrats than they are in the average election cycle and will indeed support them at a lower rate than usual.

If I had to guess I'd say Democratic candidates will end up doing a lot better with black voters than they are currently, but that the level of support they receive will not quite be at its usual lofty levels. Democratic support from African Americans may more often this year end up in the 80% plus or minus 5 points range instead of the 90% plus or minus 5 points range.

Here's the data comparing Obama's approval with blacks to the support level of Democratic Senate and Gubernatorial candidates with them in states where the black population is at least 10%:

Race
Obama Approval w/Blacks
Democrat w/Blacks (Dropoff)

Illinois Governor
88% (Obama approval)
Pat Quinn 41% (47)

Florida Senate
79% (Obama approval)
Kendrick Meek 48% (31)

Texas Governor
90% (Obama approval)
Bill White 62% (28)

Pennsylvania Governor
80% (Obama Approval)
Dan Onorato 56% (24)

North Carolina Senate
87% (Obama approval)
Elaine Marshall 67% (20)

Florida Governor
79% (Obama approval)
Alex Sink 60% (19)

Illinois Senate
88% (Obama approval)
Alexi Giannoulias 69% (19)

Delaware Senate
82% (Obama approval)
Chris Coons 63% (19)

Michigan Governor
74% (Obama approval)
Virg Bernero 57% (17)

Pennsylvania Senate
80% (Obama approval)
Joe Sestak 64% (16)

Ohio Senate
84% (Obama approval)
Lee Fisher 68% (16)

Missouri Senate
78% (Obama approval)
Robin Carnahan 67% (11)

Ohio Governor
84% (Obama approval)
Ted Strickland 79% (5)


On average the Democratic nominees are running 21 points behind Obama's approval with black voters. Closing that gap is going to be key to winning these races or in some cases even making them competitive.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/

[Aramchek]

1. this poll is little more than an attempt to drive a wedge in the Democratic Party

[WI_DEM]

2. how? by pointing out in polling that right now dem candidates are not performing

as well among black voters? PPP does add: If I had to guess I'd say Democratic candidates will end up doing a lot better with black voters than they are currently, but that the level of support they receive will not quite be at its usual lofty levels. Democratic support from African Americans may more often this year end up in the 80% plus or minus 5 points range instead of the 90% plus or minus 5 points range.

[Aramchek]

10. they're not doing as well among white voters either. this poll is just looking for a scapegoat.

[Lost4words]

4. the administration did that better than anybody else could!

why I will never know, other than we now have truly a one party system.

[WI_DEM]

6. but if that is the case why is Obama consistently popular with Dem voters?

according to every single poll? His problem, according to polls, is that indies have turned against him because they think he is too much of a spender!

[Lost4words]

3. We all wanted something better, opportunity gone along with hope

:crazy:

[WI_DEM]

7. Except that according to those numbers black voters and most dems strongly

approve of Obama.

[emulatorloo]

9. Don't confuse me with the facts!

[bigdarryl]

5. HEY!! PPP you should start listening to African American radio to get your answer

[joeybee12]

8. One thing to consider...Obama was able to...unfortunately...get the turnout

among African American voters strong for Blanche Lincoln...if he can do that for some of the real Dems running, then the outlook improves.

[flyarm]

11. But Biden had to take Blanche to Boston MASS to get campaign funds! look it up!

it was in the last 12 days..

Yes indeed, Biden was campaign fund raising for Blanche and with Blanche In Boston Mass! In the past week or so.

[Mefistofeles]

12. Presidents tend to have higher approval

Than other officials and candidates.