Most Polling is Mediocre (Charlie Cook)

[Mass]

And it is now you tell us?

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/09/28/most_polling_is_mediocre.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+PoliticalWire+(Political+Wire)

Most Polling is Mediocre
Charlie Cook says that "probably 90% of the public polling in statewide and district races is mediocre at best, and much of it is very close to worthless."

"My view is that most academic polling, as well as the polling sponsored by local television stations and newspapers, is dime-store junk. The far more sophisticated polling is done by top-notch professional polling firms for campaigns, parties and major business and labor organizations. These polls are considerably more expensive and the methodology is more rigorous."

Stuart Rothenberg: "Campaign pollsters have much more at stake. Their numbers drive campaign strategy, with victory or defeat of their candidate hanging in the balance. Their numbers have to be correct."

[bigdarryl]

1. He's a fat slob trying to justify his polling and when he comes up short on Nov 2nd

I want to see the look on his face on MSNBC

[Mass]

2. He is not a pollster. He is a commentator.

His point is that, while it is clear that the GOP will gain seats (and in his opinion win the House), anybody who makes a prediction on how big (or little) the win will be on the basis of public polling is an idiot. I totally agree.

[bigdarryl]

3. well anyone predicting the rethugs will win the house is an IDIOT also

[Mass]

4. Really? This is a possibility, you know. Not acknowledging it will not help us win this one.

[wisteria]

7. Please don't delude yourself into thinking it isn't possible that we could have Speaker Boehner.n/t

[COLGATE4]

5. Charlie Cook is mediocre.

[wisteria]

6. I think local polling is often just a reflection of what the local pollsters want the outcome to be.

The problem I have is these polls do often persuade voters to vote one way or another, because voters aren't paying close enough attention to the candidates or the issues. They vote who appears to be the more popular candidate.

[OHdem10]

8. The truth be told --People refuse to particpate in Polls. and

only people with land-line phones get polled so
any pollster starts with a disadvantage.