My look at the Governor Races--Dems appear to be gaining ground

[WI_DEM]

Two weeks ago:
Safe/likely Dem Governors: Arkansas, NH, NY, CO, CT, MD, HA
Leaning Dem: FL, MA, MN, VT
Safe/likely GOP: NE, WY, Alabama, MI, OK, PA, AZ, SC, SD, TN, Alaska, ID, KS, UT, IL, IA, NV
Leaning GOP: OH, ME, GA
Toss-up: CA, NM, OR, RI, TX, WI

Today (9/28) according to recent polls:
Safe/likely Dems: Arkansas, NH, NY, CO, CT, MD (new poll out today with O'Malley up by 12), HA
Leaning Dem: FL, MA, MN, VT, RI, CA
Safe/likely GOP: NE, WY, Alabama, MI, OK, AZ, SC, SD, TN, Alaska, ID, KS, UT, IL, IA, NV
Leaning GOP: ME, GA, NM, PA
Toss-up: OH, OR, TX, WI

Changes: I have upgraded CA and RI from toss-up to (based on recent polls) lean Dem. I have down graded New Mexico from toss-up to lean GOP (new PPP/Kos poll has Dem down by 8). I have upgraded PA from safe/likely GOP to leaning GOP, due to new polls showing Onorato moving from double digits behind the GOP nominee to single digits.

If Dems do go on to win FL, MN, RI, CT, CA--these would represent Dem pick-ups. Meanwhile MI, PA, IL, IA, ME, NM would represent GOP pick-ups.

Of the four toss-ups, OH, OR, WI have Dem governors and TX a GOP governor.

[vaberella]

1. This is what I'm talking about. Go go go Dem! n/t

[Kdillard]

2. Thanks looking good.

[dccrossman]

3. kick

Thanks for the short, simple analysis.

[JaneQPublic]

4. I heard about the O'Malley surge this morning...

...and did a little victory dance. No doubt it was MY campaign contribution that made a difference.