Why is the media pushing the "Enthusiasm Gap" narrative in a vacuum?

[emulatorloo]

In a recent poll, Gallup contacted 262,075 people. Of those people only 78,556 identified as Republicans.

I'm not smart about math, and I don't think gallup is giving enough information to really analyse this. But maybe you have some ideas

I'm getting those numbers from this poll:

Conservatives Dominate Republican Party, Skew Older
Religion, age are key differentiators of conservatives and moderates/liberals

http://www.gallup.com/poll/143231/Conservatives-Dominate-Republican-Party-Skew-Older.aspx

See down at the bottom on methodology:

"Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking Jan. 2-Sept. 23, 2010, with a random sample of 262,075 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling.

For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is less than ±1 percentage point.

For results based on the total sample of 78,556 Republicans, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is less than ±1 percentage point."

Unfortunately they don't say whether the others were independents/democrats, etc/

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So how do these numbers affect how the "enthusiasm gap" should be interpreted?

From this other Gallup Poll:


Generic Ballot Virtually Tied: Democrats 46%, Republicans 45%
Republicans losing strength in September compared with August
by Frank Newport Sept 20 2010
http://www.gallup.com/poll/143132/Generic-Ballot-Virtually-Tied-Democrats-Republicans.aspx

"The enthusiasm gap this past week was 19 percentage points, with 47% of Republicans very enthusiastic about voting, compared with 28% of Democrats. Republicans have enjoyed at least a 10-point advantage on this measure since Gallup began tracking congressional election preferences in March, including margins of 16 points or higher since August."

They seem to be a bit fuzzy on how many of their sample were republicans and how many were democrats, unless I am missing somthing.

ON EDIT Thread title

[FBaggins]

1. Party identification and "enthusiasm" aren't really related.

You'll see some party self-identification shifting from election to election based on changing perceptions of the parties, but the "enthusiasm gap" is really a different measure entirely. It's asking "of those people who call themselves 'x'... how excited are they about voting... compared to those who call themselves 'y'?"

[emulatorloo]

2. I understand the difference. But how does that translate in the real world?

There are obviously more people who identify as Democrats than as Republicans. It seems that ought to factor into any MEDIA INTERPRETATION of the "enthusiasm gap" coverage. We are hearing a lot about it and how that means a Republlican victory is "inevitable".

Example:

If there are 50 democrats and 30% vote = 15
If there are 15 Republicans and 50% vote = 7

Unfortunately Gallup has not talked about percentages of those who identify as Democrat/Republican/Independent in the recent polls, at least not that I can find.

[FBaggins]

3. Most polls weight for historical party affiliation.

So if a given sample shows up as 40% republican when the historical average is 35%, they adjust their final numbers to assume that 35% is the correct number. What this means is that if 5% of the people had actually changed who they self-associate with, the poll will be off.

The year that Rasmussen got their reputation for being wildly pro-republican, they tried to account for this factor by assuming that when poll after poll after poll showed more republicans than the historical average, it actually reflected a underlying shift... so they weighted their polls to account for that... and then got burned when it didn't materialize in the electorate.

So yes, if Gallup sees several polls with a higher sampling of republicans than they expected, they might interpret that to be a shift in party affiliation, but it won't show up in their enthusiasm numbers, and they don't significantly adjust their weighting to account for it. They wait for the election to prove the shift and then adjust future years' weighting.

[emulatorloo]

6. I appreciate the reply.

Thanks for taking the time to write it. Seriously.

I changed my thread title to better reflect what I am asking. It is not so much about the polling methodology but how the media is reporting the "enthusiasm gap" narrative.

[Life Long Dem]

4. Both repubs and dems are down.

This is changing for the dems though - with President Obama hitting the campaign trail.

Even Biden is out there telling all to "buck up"!

[emulatorloo]

5. The Rally in Wisconsin yesterday was excellent.

[Life Long Dem]

7. Yeah I thought it was good too.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

9. Yep. And notice all the media coverage... Oh, wait...

:sarcasm:

[emulatorloo]

10. see "CNN on Madison Rally: Rally lacked 'wild excitement' of '08--LIARS"

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=433x460633

[AtomicKitten]

8. IMO it's because they want to be in charge of the narrative, facts be damned. nt