My look at the Senate Races

[WI_DEM]

Two weeks ago:
Safe/Likely Dem: Hawaii, NY (Schumer), NY (Gillibrand), MD, Vermont, Delaware, Oregon, West Virginia

Leaning Dem: WA, CT

Safe/Likely GOP: Alabama, Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, KS, ND, OK, SC, SD, UT, IA, LA, IN, Arkansas

Leaning GOP: FL, KY, MO, OH, PA, NC, Alaska

Toss-up: IL, NV, CA, CO, WI (need to see more polls than RAS), NH

Today (9/28, based on latest polls/trends):

Safe/likely Dem: HI, NY (Schumer), NY (Gillibrand), MD, VT, DE, OR,

Lean Dem: WA, CT, CA, NV (most recent poll--a gop survey--gives Reid 5-point lead)

Safe/likely GOP: Alabama, Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, KS, ND, OK, SC, SD, UT, IA, LA, IN, Arkansas

Leaning GOP: FL, OH, PA, NC, Alaska, NH, WI, MO

Toss-up: IL, CO, WVA, KY

Changes: I upgraded CA & NV from toss-up to "Leans Dem" based on recent polling. I down graded West Virginia from Likely Dem to toss-up also based on recent polling. I moved WI & NH from "toss-up" to leans GOP and Kentucky from "Leans GOP" to "Toss-up" I'm also keeping an eye on PA senate, for now I've left it leaning GOP, but the polls seem to be indicating a tightening of the race.

Right now I show the GOP gaining five Democratic seats (though I believe WI & PA will tighten in the next few weeks). I show one GOP seat in jeapordy with the Democratic candidate surging (KY) and three other seats (currently held by Dems) as toss-ups. At this point if I were the Dems I would put all I could into KY, WI, PA, WVA, CO & IL.

[vaberella]

1. You're the best WI_DEM, thanks for answering my question.

I hope we can cut that 5 down to 2 or 3 and win the others.

Edited to say, I'll ask you again in two weeks time. :D

[PopSixSquish]

2. Jack Conway Might Just be the "Dragon-Slayer" of this Election

He's been very smart to keep his campaign focused on local issues while Rand Paul runs off at the mouth about President Obama. Alex Sink has been running similar types of ads in Florida.

Conway's newest ad is also a full frontal bitchslap to Paul, keep it up Jack!

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/44/2010/09/ad-of-the-day-rand-paul-is-off.html

[WI_DEM]

3. If we win KY that along with DE will be two seats the GOP really thought they would have

and it would be next to impossible for them to win the Senate.

[Ter]

4. I would update Gillibrand to leans Dem

She is leading by 11 points, dunno what the cutoff is, but Marco Rubio is leading by 11, and you have him leans GOP. I'd also put the Reid race as a toss-up. She is up by one in a poll out today.