Republicans now not so certain they are going to take House...

[kentuck]

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/03/us/politics/03campaign.html?_r=1

<snip>
WASHINGTON — Republicans carry substantial advantages as they move into the final month of the fall campaign, but the resilience of vulnerable Democrats is complicating Republican efforts to lock down enough seats to capture the House and take control of the unsettled electoral battleground.

By now, Republicans had hoped to put away a first layer of Democrats and set their sights on a second tier of incumbents. But the fight for control of Congress is more fluid than it seemed at Labor Day, with Democrats mounting strong resistance in some parts of the country as they try to hold off a potential Republican wave in November.

The chances of a Republican takeover in the House remain far greater than in the Senate, according to a race-by-race analysis by The New York Times. But enough contests remain in flux that both parties head into the final four weeks of the campaign with the ability to change the dynamic before Election Day.

<snip>
Yet even as spending from outside groups is threatening to swamp many Democratic candidates, Republican strategists estimated that only half of the 39 seats they need to win control of the House were definitively in hand.

.......more

[The Wielding Truth]

1. So the true american sleeping giant has awakened. Let's make sure they vote.

[Imajika]

2. Yeah, I actually think they are panicking just a little...

They will make gains, but the recent polling data makes it look pretty clear to me that the jury is still out on November. The GOP doesn't have a huge generic ballot lead anymore (though even if it is a tie they will win a big pile of seats), and it looks like a lot of polls indicate the possibility of tightening races across the board. They have also nominated some real duds like O'Donnell, so we will retain seats that would otherwise have been losses.

All in all, I am pretty encouraged. I saw a Newsweek poll that actually gave us a substantial LV lead, but I am suspicious of that one till I see more data.

[kentuck]

3. I think we might win a few seats they are not even thinking about...

thanks to what they have sown with the tea-baggers. I think the Republicans will be very disappointed on November 3rd and very, very angry.

[Imajika]

6. Look for 2 possible Senate pickups...

...in Kentucky and Missouri.

Overall, we are likely to lose some seats as it is just difficult to defy mid term voting patterns, but there is a good chance we pull out some close races and win enough of their seats to keep both the House and Senate.

It is a tough road ahead. Remember, even if turnout is equal they are likely to pick up a lot of seats since we are up so many in both chambers. All we have to do is hold on to enough to keep the House and Senate and we dodge a serious bullet.

[DemocraticPilgrim]

10. I totally agree with that. +1

[Robbins]

12. I agree

I am In Missouri and polls from people Inside here have It close.Not the huge lead RAS claims Blunt has.And I see a lot of attacks on
Blunt In ads from Democrats more than I see Blunt's lies.This says Democrats see this as a possable win.It Is similar to Kentuckey.
Non Ras Polls have it dead head.

Here In Missouri Blunt doesn't want to debate Robin Carnahan.This Is similar to rand Paul trying to duck the Media.If any Republican
held senate seats flip it will be these 2.

Don't forget the so called bad polls are based on Likely voter screens.And they are assuming Democrats have bad turnouts.

Pundits are not always right.Remember 1998.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

17. I'm trying to prepare myself for the very real possibility that Feingold may lose.

For me, that'll be the biggest loss for the Democrats should it happen.

I agree that Kentucky and Missouri may go our way. Added to that, the Republicans could very well split the vote between Miller and Murskowski and give us Senator McAdams. It's a long shot but could happen.

Kirk just may lose to Mr. G. in Illinois where the Republicans were expecting a big pick-up.

And if Coons holds it down, he may just as well beat O'Donnell, a.k.a., Sarah Palin, Jr. And the Repukes thought they could beat Murray in WA. I don't think that'll happen.

The governorships looks very good! I think Sink will win in Florida. I'm praying that Roy Barnes pulls it out in GA. O'Malley will retain his seat here in MD. CO looks good. Deval will be fine in MA. And Jerry Brown will beat "Whitless" in CA.

All of these predictions are contingent on turnout.

If we don't show all, they win!! It's as simple as that...

[Proud Liberal Dem]

11. and this time, they won't have "ACORN" to blame

:eyes:

[Arkana]

19. If you think the GOP infighting is bad now,

wait until November 3rd when they haven't won control of either house.

The teabaggers will go into full-on revolt against the Republicans.

[DCKit]

4. And when they lose 17 while gaining 9, what's the excuse? n/t

[FBaggins]

14. There couldn't be one.

If you're saying a democratic pick up of eight net house seats... that would be a loss of historic proportions for the Rs given how invested they are in this election. They would be forced to step aside and let democrats govern.

[kentuck]

5. I think the Democrats just need to keep playing rope-a-dope....

and let them punch themselves out.

Then start punching back hard the last 3 or 4 days before the election. It could be like Ali against Foremen. :-)

[elleng]

18. Ali v Foreman makes me smile!!!

:)

[applegrove]

7. That is good news. And Obama will be hitting is stride in this next month.

I'll take those odds.

[depakid]

8. A 67% chance is still a loser one out of three times.

[pacalo]

9. Cornyn seems to be certain that the Democrats have no chance.

No tinfoil necessary when it comes to mistrusting Rethugs & their desperation to win elections. This statement rubbed me the wrong way:

Senator John Cornyn of Texas, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said Democrats were delusional if they believed an upswing was under way.

“I’m sure they are looking for any glimmer of hope or opportunity,” Mr. Cornyn said in an interview. “I think things are pretty much locked in. The trajectory is pretty much fixed, and I don’t think things are going to change much.”

[Skittles]

15. Cornyn is a Texas repuke asshat

he can fuck himself

[Arkana]

20. John Cornyn is wrong about everything so that actually makes me feel better.

[Inuca]

22. Cornyn is arrogant and not that smart n/t

[FBaggins]

13. Of course they're not certain. The best odds they've been given range from 65-80%

Which means that the chance they will fail to pick up the House is about the same as their chance to win the Senate. Neither is likely but both are possible.

Republican strategists estimated that only half of the 39 seats they need to win control of the House were definitively in hand.

Definitively? I'd say that's optomistic at best. Whether counting chickens or measuring drapes... it's premature.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

16. And I am *CERTAIN* that they won't!! n/t

[old mark]

21. You mean Boehner won't be the next speaker? OH NOEEEEESSS!!!11 nt

[gmoney]

23. Boortz is already speculating that the media might be playing "rope-a-dope"

Heard some bit where he was speculating that the "liberal media" might be deliberately inflating polls and skewing stories so the pukes will be overconfident and attempt to coast to easy victory, when in fact it's all a big lie conjured up by George Soros or someone to catch the pukes napping.

Yep, I'm sure that's what's going on. Uh huh. Yeppers.

[GSLevel9]

24. less than a month to find out... nt