Chicago Tribune Poll--IL Senate: Giannoulias (D): 36% Kirk (R) 34%

[book_worm]

The trust factor could well determine the tight U.S. Senate race between Democrat Alexi Giannoulias and Republican Mark Kirk with a month left in an attack-driven campaign, a new Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV poll found.

Giannoulias held a 38 percent to 36 percent advantage over Kirk, but that result falls within the poll’s 4-percentage-point margin of error. Another 17 percent were undecided, offering ample opportunity in a contest where both sides are trying to sway voters with millions of dollars in negative TV ads assailing the character and veracity of the other guy. Two largely unknown minor-party candidates lagged behind.

A month ago, a Tribune poll found the race tied at 34 percent, with 22 percent undecided.

Kirk’s esteem dipped among independent voters, a key swing demographic. A month ago, only 17 percent viewed him unfavorably. Now 34 percent do. Overall, Kirk holds a 38 percent to 27 percent edge over Giannoulias among independents, similar to his margin last time, though 22 percent are undecided.

The survey also suggests that Giannoulias bounced back from problems associated with the federal takeover of his family’s troubled bank in April. The poll was conducted before a Tribune report last week that showed Giannoulias worked at the bank longer than he had previously publicly discussed in gaining a $2.7 million tax deduction from the IRS.

The nationally significant contest for the Senate seat Obama once held remains close, but the new poll reveals movement among some groups of voters.
Giannoulias further consolidated support from Democratic voters, particularly in Chicago, with three-quarters of them rallying behind his candidacy. Previously, only two-thirds of Democrats backed Giannoulias. Kirk consistently has held that level of support among Republicans.

A look at the state’s three major regions shows Giannoulias still more than doubling up Kirk in Cook County, while Kirk held a slight lead in the collar counties and a healthy margin downstate.

The survey of 600 registered likely voters conducted Sept. 24-28 also found Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones getting 5 percent support, while Libertarian candidate Mike Labno received backing from 3 percent.

http://newsblogs.chicagotribune.com/clout_st/2010/10/tribune-poll-giannoulias-kirk-locked-in-tight-us-senate-race.html

[Dawgs]

1. What about the other 13%?

Interesting!

[karynnj]

5. Ther are two independent candidates - the one getting the bigger

part is a green candidate. If it follows the norm, some of that will shift to the Democrat in the ballot box.

[Oceansaway]

2. K&R...n/t

[catgirl]

3. The second poll showing Alex slightly ahead

Yeah!!

[prolesunited]

4. This is troubling

"Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones getting 5 percent support."

If they could get behind Giannoulias, he would be the clear leader. In a race this close, I think practicality should trump ideological purity.

[karynnj]

6. I think in the end it will - especially if that support is in Chicago.

[Aramchek]

8. the Green Party won't even get 2% on election day

[Drunken Irishman]

9. I'd wager third parties typically do better in polls than they do actual votes.

[terrya]

10. It is troubling.

But I think the Democrats are going to come home in November...for both Giannoulias and Pat Quinn.

I've never done this before, but I'm considering volunteering for Giannoulias. Doing phone bank stuff. Giannoulias is a good man.

[prolesunited]

14. That would be great, Terry

I'm sure any help you could provide would be appreciated.

[Radical Activist]

12. The Green candidate isn't running a serious camapaign.

I know that's a shocker. Alexi is running on a progressive platform so there's not much incentive to go Green.

[KharmaTrain]

13. A Lot Of People On The Fence

I did some canvassing earlier this month and the truth is most people either know nothing about either candidate...or if they do, they don't like either of them. The negatives on Giannoulis are a combination of his own family's financial messes and Blago fatigue that is affecting all Democrats. They don't like Kirk cause he's a liar. Thus you're seeing a lot of third party action here and even more undecideds. The bad news is that most of these undecideds are in Democratic areas but the good news is Kirk has spent a ton of money and still can't do better than 32$. His third party threat from the "Constitution" party is far more threatening than whatever votes the Greens get as most of those votes will come out of those collar counties the Trib poll sites where Giannoulis will lose in areas where he's strong (Chicago lakefront).

Overall, until proven otherwise, this is a solid Democratic state and those collar counties where things are tight used to be crimson red. If Democrats show on Election Day, Kirk loses and it won't be close. Our job here...and I'm in a collar county...is to get as many of our people to the polls. We've done it before and will do it again.

[prolesunited]

15. Great perspective from the trenches

Thanks

[ieoeja]

16. Why would you say this is a solid Democratic state?

This Senate seat has been in Democratic hands for only one term. The Governorship has been Democratic for only two terms, and was Republican for decades prior to that.

The state legislature seems to be solidly Democratic, but that includes a lot of staunchly conservative Democrats down state (which helps explain why we can not fix taxes). While Democrats do currently hold 100% of state-wide offices, it was not long ago it was almost exactly the opposite (except that we always seem to hold onto one Senate seat). And it took two out of three Republican governors going to jail to get a Democrat elected governor.

[Inuca]

7. Both Senate and gubernatorial

races will be nail biters in IL.

[Clio the Leo]

11. Anyone else know Giannoulias played b'ball with the Pres. the day of the election?

news to me.