Survey USA--OHIO 01--Dem leading early voting by 8-points

[book_worm]

Overall Survey USA is showing that the republican candidate is leading in their poll 53-41, but among those early voters (6% of the survey) the Democrat is leading 53-45 percent:

Counter-intuitively, though, SUSA's sub-sample of voters who say that they've already cast their ballots in Ohio's early voting process (which began on Tuesday) shows Driehaus with a 53-45 lead over Chabot. Of course, it's a tiny sample (just 6% of the broader sample), but that's not the result you'd expect given the great weight of evidence that suggests that Democrats are facing a steep enthusiasm gap. Might Driehaus be experiencing more success in getting his supporters out to the polls early?

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/7725/oh01-chabot-leads-driehaus-by-12-but-driehaus-leads-among-early-voters

[rocktivity]

1. .

:headbang:
rocktivity

[msongs]

2. why are they announcing counted votes already - is that legal?

before polls close, sounds like that would give unfair motivation to the side behind.

[book_worm]

3. It's a poll--survey usa among those who had already voted that is what they found.

[Drunken Irishman]

5. They did the same thing in 2008...

Leading up to the election. It was a big indicator of what to expect in swing states. I believe Obama held huge leads in early voting in Ohio and Virginia, which helped him win both states.

[Enthusiast]

10. You are right.

McCain/Palin actually received more votes on election day than Obama/Biden. I hope they count my early vote.

If Kasich wins the state I fear we will experience the same thing we did with Blackwell in future Ohio elections. Of course they are the party of "values".

[Cirque du So-What]

4. Early voting

One thing - in a miniscule handful - that I miss about Ohio. I hope it gains in popularity elsewhere.

[karnac]

6. a question

Is it possible that many of the responders actually haven't voted but just said yes.

This a nasty election season and they may not have wanted to be constantly reminded to vote.

PUSH pollers often pretend to be non partisan and people know it.

what would it mean if what i what surmise is true?

[quakerboy]

8. What would be the motivation?

It was a polling corp contacting them. And the polling is no more nasty this election than any other, particularly not more so than the most recent one. That goes for Push Polling as well. Did that prove to be the case in similar polls of this area in 08? If not, then the scenario you present dosn't seem to make sense to me.

And even if people were more afraid of polling than usual, why would they take a stand and say they already voted for a Dem, why make that extra "I made a choice and it was..." declarative rather than just hanging up or saying "Uh... I already voted, don't call me anymore".

[Kdillard]

7. Well this is contrary to what I am getting from CNN.

Apparently Dems are preparing for loses and looking for a way forward. I am really hoping the media gets huge egg on thwir faces.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

9. I suspect CNN isn't exactly pro-Obama...

[greymattermom]

11. Working America

is out there canvassing every day, encouraging early voting. My daughter is with them walking the streets every day. They even canvassed Steve Chabot's neighborhood, but skipped his house.