WaPo POLL: Obama approval at 50% (+4). Democrats make gains on generic ballot. Was -13, now -6.

[jefferson_dem]

:)

The -6 is for LV. For RV, Democrats are +4.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_10052010.html

[jefferson_dem]

1. Here's ABC's write-up. "GOP Advantage Eases, but Still Large, as Economic Optimism Shows a Pulse"

GOP Advantage Eases, but Still Large, as Economic Optimism Shows a Pulse
Republicans Still Lead among Likely Voters
ANALYSIS By GARY LANGER

Oct. 5, 2010

A gargantuan Republican advantage in the midterm elections subsided to merely a broad one in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, with the Democrats clawing back some support, in tandem with an incipient sense that the economy at last may be turning the corner.

A month before Election Day, 31 percent of Americans say the economy's improving -- far from a majority, but 7 points more than a month ago and among the most since the financial crisis of fall 2008. Dissatisfaction with the federal government, closely related to economic discontent, also has eased by 7 points, albeit to a still-high 71 percent.

It's hardly a sea change: anti-incumbency and disapproval of Congress remain enormous. Republicans still are more charged up; they're 16 points more apt than Democrats to say they're certain to vote next month. And the ABC News Frustration Index, a strong predictor of election outcomes, stands at 68 on its scale of 100, well in the danger zone for incumbent politicians.

In congressional vote preference, likely voters now divide by 49-43 percent for the Republican vs. the Democratic candidate in their district. That's eased from a remarkable 53-40 percent last month, the largest GOP lead since ABC/Post polling began in 1982.

<SNIP>

http://abcnews.go.com/print?id=11798478

[Cosmocat]

7. it is really sad how hard the media is trying to drive ...

the narrative of this election, and has since day one ...

I watched Chris Mathews yesterday, and it was, of course, how horrible things are looking for the dems ... He repeated a half dozen times how Obama's approval has sunk to new lows in the 40s - which is just so far from the reality that they had dipped to low points months ago and have been chipping up for weeks now ...

But, that was not the best work he did ...

He showed a poll about the Toomey Sestak race and declared Sestak to be pretty much dead in the water ...
A few minutes later he showed Blumenthal McMahon poll and said it was close, REAL close, and that it was a race ...

Both polls were the same exact 7 point difference, with Toomey at 49-42 and Blumenthal at 51-44 ... It was nuts, really, at face value, Blumenthal was in the 50s, and somehow he was in a REALLY close race ... Toomey has had a clear lead, but overall Blumenthal has held a strong advantage over McMahan all along than Toomey has over Sestak ...

The numbers are the numbers, but the narrative is clear ... Even this article headline "GOP advantage eases, BUT STILL LARGE" ...

Same situation existed for the Ds, the headline would read, "Dems margin evaporating ..."

[Kdillard]

8. Very, very true. It is pretty sickening.

[GoCubsGo]

11. Yep, only here is a 45-49% approval rating "well under 50%"

Heard that one the other day regarding President Obama's approval ratings. Don't remember which network, but six of one, half dozen of the other...

[impik]

14. Yep. And they totally ignore the fact that he's still above

were both Clinton and that Republican god were. They really really hates him.

[FrenchieCat]

13. It ain't just sickening.....

It's down right scary and undemocratic!

[still_one]

2. Most of the other polls still show this is not going to be a good election for us

I hope we show them all, and Democrats show up in strong numbers, but I am skeptical

I am really disappointed that it doesn't look good for Feingold and others

Unless we have a landslide, I suspect there will be major grid lock no mater which way the election goes

[jefferson_dem]

3. The question at this point is "how bad" will it be for us.

There are signs that the Repug wave has crested, at least. We have stopped the bleeding. Now, let's work like crazy for the next month and see what happens.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. A Six Point Deficit Translates Into A Lot Of Lost Seats

I believe that the deficit was similar in 94.

[FBaggins]

5. It depends on a great deal of factors.

There have been years where one party loses seats despite having a lead in the generic poll... And there have been years where the generic poll shows a BIG lead and the actual votes result in only a moderate lead.

But no... even 1994 wasn't this bad. Most of the generic polls showed a small dem advantage at this point. It shifted slightly to the reps just before the vote.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. In The 98 MidTerms The Republicans Garnered More Votes But Lost Six House Seats

That being said, a six point deficit on election day would not be good.

[FBaggins]

9. And in 2002 they won almost 5% more House votes and picked up only eight seats.

Gerrymandering plus the current mix of seats plays a role. Republicans were defending a narrow majority at the time, so there were few Democratic seats in play.

Of course, this year we're riding two solid elections for Democrats, so there are quite a few seats out there that were only won because of those waves.

[Jennicut]

10. In 1994, the predictions were really off and most pollsters admitted it.

Most didn't see the Repub wave coming. This may be the opposite, over predicting. Who the hell knows. Polling in general is never 100% reliable. All pollsters must form voter screens and then base polling off of that.

[jenmito]

12. The only time I heard this mentioned was a few minutes ago by Olbermann...

Funny how the "liberal" media mentioned other stats from that poll but not Obama's approval. They're too busy talking about how Obama's numbers are so low that he may need to run with Hillary as his VP as "rumored." :eyes:

[humbled_opinion]

15. Here is the positive message

If the Democratic losses are not as severe as predicted, then in fact this will be a huge victory for Obama and Progressives in general. The President will be able to say, look the media and the candidates made this election a referendum on my agenda and the results indicate that America is supporting Change, the change that I campaigned on an will continue to bring. So now the debate is over this election has finally determined that America is a center left country despite what the tea partiers and the far radical rightwingers want to believe. Now that Republicans have gain some seats which was inevitable it comes with a renewed responsiblity to work with me to get a positive agenda passed and to get all Americans back to work.

[Imagevision]

16. Listen to CNN all you want - The GOIP will lose in November but will have served the purpose for

the tea baggers!