PPP--NY Governor's race--Cuomo (D) 53% Paladino (R) 38%

[book_worm]

Cuomo still up big

Andrew Cuomo's had a pretty steep drop in his personal popularity with New York voters over the course of this election cycle but with a very weak opponent it doesn't much matter- he leads Carl Paladino 53-38.

Just under half of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of Cuomo, with 49% viewing him positively to 39% unfavorably. That +10 spread represents a 27 point drop from January of 2009 when it was +37 with 57% of voters in the state holding a favorable opinion of him and just 20% a negative one. He's maintained his popularity with Democrats since then but has seen significant erosion with Republicans and independents.

Where GOP voters gave him a positive 49/28 score early last year his crossover popularity has now almost completely disintegrated with only 18% liking him now and 71% expressing displeasure toward him. And independents have turned from a +6 favorability spread toward Cuomo to a -11 one.

If Cuomo had a strong opponent that big decline in his popularity might be a real source of concern for him. But he doesn't have a strong opponent. 51% of voters in the state have an unfavorable opinion of Paladino while only 34% see him positively. Perhaps most discouraging for Paladino's prospects is that only 14% of Democrats see him in a favorable light- you need a whole lot more crossover popularity than that to get elected as a Republican in New York.

If you have your party base locked up as a Democrat in New York you're going to win and Cuomo pretty much does, leading 81-13 with voters in his party. Cuomo is also winning over 19% of Republicans, which is unusually high in a year when GOP voters are extremely unified around their party's nominees in most races. And although Paladino does lead 46-40 with independents that's a much smaller margin than the double digit leads most Republican candidates across the country are posting and that Paladino would need to have a chance in this race.

[Cognitive_Resonance]

1. Potential for down ballot coattails. nt

[rocktivity]

2. I doubt that this is helping

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=9258545&mesg_id=9258662

:evilgrin:
rocktivity

[janewin]

3. this is mental

How is this moron getting 38%? I know theres disappointment with the administration but 38% is a lot of people of new yorkers saying they support a certifiable lunatic

[Cognitive_Resonance]

4. ~25% will vote for anyone with (R) after their name. The rest think his antics are cute. Sad. nt

[Ter]

5. Yeah, I met someone who said "That's what we need!"

:(