The Long Game

[babylonsister]

http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=the_long_game

The Long Game
Disillusioned progressives can help Democrats, and themselves, at the ballot box.

Tim Fernholz | October 6, 2010 | web only


We all know that the 2010 midterm elections are important. But many voters -- and particularly unenthusiastic, disappointed Democrats -- may not realize just how important this November's vote will be, not just for the next Congress but those in 2012, 2014, and 2016. Not only will this election influence how Congress is composed for years to come; it is also an opportunity for progressives to shift the balance of the Democratic coalition to the left.

The governors and state legislators elected this year will draw the electoral map for the next 10 years as the once-a-decade redistricting process begins in 2011. During the last redistricting in 2001, Republicans had the advantage at the state level and leveraged it to give the GOP a structural advantage in the House of Representatives. Some 25 Democrats lost their seats in 2002 and 2004 due to redistricting; the Republicans' famous 1994 takeover also came on the new map.

Despite two cycles of Republican map-drawing, Democrats managed to reclaim a majority in 2006. In some districts, demographic changes outpaced gerrymandering, allowing Democrats to make gains where Republicans expected to be safe. But Democrats also expanded into Republican territory. This is a testament to good campaigning, but it's also the cause of a frequent progressive problem: the large number of Democrats in Congress who face electoral incentives to pander to conservatives.

Redistricting presents an opportunity to solve this problem directly: Drawing more competitive seats would allow Democrats to expand their majority not just in "safe" districts or Republican strongholds but in balanced seats. Look at voter registration by district: Dozens of Democrats have won seats where Republicans have the advantage, but most Republican districts are just that -- home to Republicans. That's why this redistricting isn't just important for straightforward partisan reasons but for influencing the type of governing coalition that comes out of an election: one dominated by the right side of the Democratic coalition or by the center-left.

snip//

Not, then, the best Election Day to stay home, or perhaps worse, get to the voting booth and fail to make it down the ballot to your state legislators. Remember: It's not just a decision about next year's vote on the Bush tax cuts, or whatever subject motivates you most. It's a decade of votes on every issue that matters.

[FrenchieCat]

1. Wow! My rec produced a net rec of Zero?

Less than 30 days prior to an important election! :wow:

[babylonsister]

2. Can't have the DU masses edumicated now, can we.

You know there are people on here working against any efforts to get Dems elected, Frenchie. I suspect we all do.

[JoePhilly]

3. It also effect judicial nominations, the legislative agenda, what gets funded ..

But I think I'll stay home and hold my breath.

:sarcasm:

[CakeGrrl]

4. Long-term thinking

Yet and still, it's scary how many people can't see past what hasn't already been dropped in their laps and will sit it out because they can't think beyond that. That seems to be one reason the balance of power keeps shifting.

[FBaggins]

5. In some ways, those state legislative seats are as important as the national races.

No way to tell how bad that might get until election night (and probably even a day or two later).

The TX gubernatorial race is critically important (and seems to be slipping away).

The general thesis is spot on. Republicans may win some stretch seats this year, but we could get many of them back in 2012 with a more popular Obama at the head of the ticket... unless those districts are strengthened in redistricting to make them more firmly republican. It's much easier for Republicans to gerrymander districts than it is for Democrats, because many of our constituencies live in higher density areas and in greater proportions in those areas.

Possibly losing the House is just the tip of the iceberg. This election could be more painful in the long run than 1994 (even if we lose fewer seats and keep the Senate) because the '94 race was followed by three more cycles before redistricting.

GOTV is the name of the game. K&R

[babylonsister]

6. Have you seen this?

BREAKING: Tom Delay's Lawyer, Dick Deguerin, Calls for Investigation Into Rick Perry's ETF Scandal
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x4566050

[FBaggins]

7. Nope. Thanks!

Doesn't seem like there's enough time for it to ripen into an election-impacting issue.

Now... if the state AG or a federal agency began a public investigation (instead of an opponent who is down by almost double-digits with less than four weeks to go)... that might be something.