CT-5 Caligiuri(R) 50% Murphy (D) 44% (Edited - R internal?)

[FBaggins]

This one is a surprise if true. That district is "Likely D" for Cook and 92% chance to retain according to Silver.

HARTFORD, CT (October 6, 2010) - U.S. Rep. Chris Murphy has fallen behind
Republican challenger Sam Caligiuri according to the CT Capitol Report Poll released
today. Rep. Murphy, the Democratic incumbent in Connecticut’s 5th congressional
district, has 44.3 percent to Republican challenger Sam Caligiuri’s 49.7 percent.

The poll, commissioned by CT Capitol Report and conducted by the Merriman
River Group, surveyed 481 likely voters on October 3-5, 2010 with a margin of error of
+/- 4.4 percentage points. 6.0 percent of those surveyed are still unsure of who they will
support in the race.

“Chris Murphy appears to be facing an uphill fight to keep his seat,” says the
poll’s Executive Director, Matthew Fitch. “He is behind opponent Sam Caligiuri just
outside the margin of error, with Caligiuri pushing the 50 percent threshold in our survey.
While the race is obviously competitive, it is often difficult for an incumbent to come
back after falling behind a challenger in the last month.

http://www.ctcapitolreport.com/images/library/CapReportPollCT%205th%20Congressional%20District.pdf


On edit - The Murphy campaign has a strong response... including a claim that their own internal polling has given them a double-digit lead all along.

http://blogs.courant.com/capitol_watch/2010/09/murphy-slams-caligiuris-poll-i.html

[Mass]

1. Different polls. The second one is a poll in September. This Merriman poll is new.

I have seen other polls saying otherwise, but this district is not very well polled, so who knows.

This said, the site who commissioned the poll has a very familiar look, so it may be Republican (or not).

http://www.ctcapitolreport.com/

A recent senate poll shows the race being a 7 poll race and the Governor's race close, so it may be a case of a pollster skewing Republican, but the race is probably close anyway.

http://blogs.courant.com/capitol_watch/2010/10/ct-capitol-report-poll-shows-c.html

This said, the district is conservative.

[Dawson Leery]

4. "Capital Report" looks like Drudge.

[WI_DEM]

7. Well, the september poll (a dem poll) is just from last week Sept 28-30

so it really isn't all that distant past and I would say that the actual result is somewhere between the two polls.

[Mass]

8. Not that one. The article in the OP was from Sept 7. I agree the results is probably between the

Murphy campaign poll and this last one, probably a close race. As I remember it, it was a close race in 2006 and 2008 as well (I may be wrong).

[Jennicut]

11. Murphy won by big margins both times. But this area has a more conservative history so

who knows what will happen? I love Chris as my Rep and it would be a shame to lose him.

[JanusAscending]

2. I was gonna say....

He's my congress critter, and has done the best work for his district than anyone else I can ever remember....and I'm 71 years old. He's always available and in my town quite often. He's constantly in touch with his constituents, and it would break my heart if he loses. I've done some LTTE's for him which is the best I can do now that I'm homebound. I'm sending in my request for my absentee ballot tomorrow morning....it came yesterday. His TV ads have been RIGHT ON...some of the best Ive seen! Somebody out there is trying to scare us, which I hope backfires on them and gets the lazy voters off their asses and out to the polls. My town has reverted back to the R side after four good D years. I hate to say it, but this is a very "white" town, and Obama has scared a lot of them!!! IDIOTS!!!

[Dawson Leery]

3. Litchfield County is very conservative.

That is known.

[brendan120678]

5. There are some strong Democratic areas of the 5th...

but overall, it probably leans conservative.
It's my district as well (Waterbury).


It isn't an overly-gerrymandered district in general, which is a good thing. It really could go either way.
And obviously it isn't just Litchfield county, as the map above implies. It also includes parts of New Haven, Fairfield, and Hartford Counties.

[Jennicut]

9. Hey! I am right next door in Terryville and I must say Chris is excellent. I couldn't ask for a

better Rep. But this area of the state is more conservative and blue collar. I have to agree that Litchfield County and along Route 8 is very....white. Except when you get to Torrington. It does worry me a little, I so do not want Caligulari as my Rep. I cannot stand him.

[JanusAscending]

12. Hi neighbor!!

I can't get out and "polotic" any more, as I'm housebound by illness, but my oil man's wife is running against a long time R. and came by last week getting signatures for her to get on the ballot. My oilman is also the only Dem. on our Towns board of Selectmen. I also gave her a small donation to help get rid of the current R Rep.in Hartford...I think you'll know who I mean...he's been around too long. time to say bye bye John Piscapo!!! Vote Susan Barrett in Nov.!!! edited because Joe Piscapo is the "comedian/actor" ....well I guess they could be related, huh? Aren't all Republicans comedic actors?????

[Jennicut]

13. I get my oil from Thomaston Oil, does the oilman work for them?

I personally want to see Bill Hamzy go, our rep in Terryville, and thankfully he is not running for re-election.

[JanusAscending]

14. No...I used to use Thomaston oil,

but Bruce Barrett has his own Company. Is a friend of my Son in Law's family. It's listed under Barrett Family Oil Co.....oh, and I got his wife's first name wrong...I was half asleep when I posted last night. It's not Susan, but Laurie.She made the cover of the free weekly newspaper out of Watertown. I think it's called the "Town Times" but it's late again, so I could be wrong. I got my copy in the mail yesterday, but I've yet to read it!!:hi:

[Jennicut]

15. Thanks for the info, I will have to look into using Barrett Family Oil now.

[WI_DEM]

6. and a democratic poll conducted last week has Murphy up by 13

Murphy Leads Gibson by 13 in New NY-20 Poll
A new Grove Insight poll shows Representative Scott Murphy leading Republican challenger Chris Gibson by 13 percent. Murphy leads Gibson 51 percent to 38 percent. Conducted September 28-30, the poll surveyed 400 likely voters and had a 4.9 percent margin of error.

http://dccc.org/blog/entry/house_democrats_more_district_by_district_polls1/

so I would say it's somewhere in between the GOP and Dem poll meaning it's probably very close.

[Jennicut]

10. Different Murphy, that is the one in NY. Chris Murphy is the Rep in CT.

But good that Scott Murphy is ahead in this poll!