Ohio Governor Poll--Strickland (D) 46% Kasich (R) 42%

[WI_DEM]

Our Week 4 tracking poll, conducted October 3-5, 2010, shows Governor Ted Strickland at 46 percent and Republican John Kasich at 42 percent, a 4-point lead for Strickland. The Strickland lead expands in the four-way vote as Kasich's unfavorable ratings have increased and those voters who do not support Strickland are increasingly open to alternatives. In the four-way vote, Strickland leads with 44 percent support while alternative candidates sap Kasich's support and leave him with just 37 percent. The Green and Libertarian candidates draw 2 percent each with 15 percent undecided.

Strickland's favorability ratings stand at 47 percent favorable and 40 percent unfavorable. For the first time in our polling, Kasich's unfavorable ratings exceed his favorable ratings. Currently, 34 percent of voters are unfavorable toward Kasich and only 32 percent are favorable.

Strickland has a stronger and broader base than Kasich. Seventy-six (76) percent of Democrats are favorable toward Strickland, as are 21 percent of Republicans and 41 percent of independents. In contrast, a bare 51 percent majority of Republican voters are favorable toward Kasich, as are just 15 percent of Democrats and 33 percent of independents. Kasich still leads narrowly among independents in the two-way match up, but his lead is clearly vulnerable given Strickland's rising favorable ratings and the drop in Kasich favorability among independent voters.

On our trait comparisons, we continue double-digit advantages on being for working people (15 points), putting the middle class first (14 points) and improving education (12 points), and being trustworthy (10 points). We now lead (by 1 point) on job creation. Kasich leads on putting the wealthy first (by 21 points) and on support for outsourcing jobs overseas (15 points), both negative traits, and by a smaller margin on keeping taxes down.

The enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans is rapidly closing. More Democratic than Republican voters say they plan to vote early both in the mail and in person (a 10 point gap; two percent of our sample volunteered they had already voted). On our 10-point scale, enthusiasm has risen to an average of 7.25. It is still higher among Republicans than Democrats but lowest among independents. One of the biggest gains in enthusiasm since last week was among union members.

<1> Sample size=600; Voters with prior history sampled from voter file and screened for likely voting; margin of error +/- 4 percentage points

http://www.tedstrickland.com/campaign_news/entry/strickland_leads_kasich_by_4_points/

[Botany]

1. happy dance

:bounce:

[saltpoint]

2. Hey, you Ohio voters. Show some support for

Ted here, and turn away the bid by Kasich.

Rec'd.

[Epiphany4z]

3. woot!!

good to hear.

[alcibiades_mystery]

4. Ouch

GOPers were kinda banking on this one.

Jobs coming back to Ohio.

[Mass]

5. That would be nice. I have the feeling this race is much closer than some polls show.

[WI_DEM]

6. I think it will be neck and neck but there will be a lot of ticket splitting

if the Ohio Senate numbers are correct, Fisher is down pretty badly.

[femrap]

7. Too bad Fisher got

all the big Fundraiser Money via Harry Reid's big galas in DC. Jennifer Brunner, Fisher's opponent in the primary, would kick Portman's ass. Alas, Fisher is a money/corporate dude and Brunner stands with us 'little people.' She had no money for TV ads.

[Deep13]

15. +1

Fisher was DOA the day after the primary.

[Ninga]

16. I am a huge Brunner fan. She would have kicked Portman's ass right back to China where he belongs.

The problem in Ohio starts with Chris Redfern Dem Party Chair and extends down through the good-ole-boy network.

Brunner was told to sit down because it wasn't her turn.



How do we get rid of Redfern?

[femrap]

20. I blamed Harry Reid for

all the big fundraisers he did for Fisher. I don't know what Redfern did....but I'm sure he played his part.

I pray Husted doesn't become Sec'y of State...another Ken Blackwell. I wonder what Jennifer is going to do after her term ends.

I so wanted her in the US Senate.

[catgirl]

8. I have a feeling the senate race is closer than the polls say

It's hard to imagine Strickland gaining and Fisher stuck in the high 30s.

[rocktivity]

9. Great. And if we could take John "The Grim Weeper" Boehner out

wouldn't it be lovely!

:headbang:
rocktivity

[FBaggins]

10. This is Strickland's own internal poll, no?

Didn't he make essentially the same claim (that his internal polling showed him ahead) back in June or July when the polls first started to move against him?

Not very encouraging. Certainly better than being down by nine... but an internal poll showing an incumbent at 46%?

[Cognitive_Resonance]

11. Keep pushing OH. Need this momentum to spill-over into the Senate race. nt

[Sinistrous]

12. Good news, but

it is still close enough to steal.

[Imajika]

13. Is this an internal poll?

This is the candidates website you've linked to and this looks like an internal poll which are notoriously unreliable. These are released to shape media coverage more than actually tell what is really happening in the race. Who commissioned this poll?

[FBaggins]

18. It isn't that internal polls are unreliable.

In fact, if anything they tend to be dramatically superior to public polling (half of which is close to worthless).

It's that the internal polls that get released tend to be inaccurate. Candidates get frequent polling and it can be quite variable. They know how to look at the bigger picture, but they release the most favorable recent poll when they need to counter bad news... so it's usually not a good thing when you see your candidate doing it (particularly when his best number puts him at 46%). IIRC, Nate Silver thinks that released internal polls are 4-6% more optimistic than others.

And yes... it reads like an internal poll. It's an email from the pollster to the campaign referencing "we".

[Imajika]

19. Yes, your right...

I should have clarified that internal polls released to the public are unreliable.

[Deep13]

14. Out-goddamn-standing! EDIT

Waitaminute! Whose poll is this?

[michreject]

17. All Ohio gun owners should support Strickland

He likes shooting so much that he built a small range in his back yard.

Must be nice.