Mason-Dixon Poll FL Senate: Rubio (R): 42% Crist (I) 27% Meek (D) 21%

[WI_DEM]

A new Mason-Dixon poll in Florida shows Marco Rubio (R) leading Gov. Charlie Crist (I) in the U.S. Senate race by 15 points, 42% to 27%, followed by Rep. Kendrick Meek at 21% and 10% still undecided.

Said pollster Brad Coker: "Rubio is in the catbird's seat. Most Crist voters don't seem likely to jump to Meek and most Meek voters don't appear ready to throw in with Crist. This stand-off on the left and center makes it easy for Rubio to win simply by consolidating the base of conservative leaning Florida voters."

http://politicalwire.com/

[sadbear]

1. Maybe President Obama can offer Crist or Meek a federal job if either one dropped out

I'm joking, just joking. Calm down.

[Renew Deal]

4. lol

:rofl:

[progressoid]

11. May not be a joke.

I could see that scenario happening.

[LeftyAndProud60]

41. Meek should drop out on his own. And I'm not kidding. He knows he can't win. NT

[JustAnotherGen]

2. I wonder how things will look in a week

It appears Meek came out strong to the left in the debate down in Florida last night. I'd be curious to see if he can edge out Crist's numbers a bit . . . Anyhoo - I don't think he should drop out of the race until the very last minute if he so chooses to drop out. Then I think IF Crist runs - he needs to come back at him in six years and play as down, dirty, and ugly as he can to unseat him.

[flyarm]

7. FLA VOTERS HAVE BEEN VOTING FOR WEEKS NOW IN MAIL IN BALLOTS.

what is not being taken into consideration is registered Snow Bird Floridians..who don't know Meek or Rubio..there are many of us!

[chimpymustgo]

33. SUPPORT YOUR LOCAL DEMOCRAT. VOTE FOR MEEK!!!!

[HughMoran]

3. I'll be quite annoyed if Rubio wins with 42% support

This race is annoying.

[jefferson_dem]

5. Yes, it is terribly annoying.

Rubio needs to be smacked down before he lands in DC, whatever it takes. Hopefully, some will come to their senses and do the right thing, before it's too late.

[wmbrew0206]

26. As the article says, Kathleen Harris received 37% against Nelson in '06.

Harris was a terrible candidate whereas Rubio comes off a lot better. I wouldn't be surprised to see him get 42%.

[K8-EEE]

6. Paging Sharron Angle, please offer Crist some crazy juice

To get the hell out of there!

[golfguru]

8. Rubio is good at staying on message

He repeats the same talking points every time I see his mug on TV.

My guess is if meek drops out, most black voters will stay home and Rubio beats Crist.
If Crist drops out, it will be a closer race between Meek & rubio because black voters
will come out to vote and moderates will break for Meek.

[wmbrew0206]

28. Um - are you from Florida? Because if not from personal observation, where are you getting the idea

that moderates will break for Meek?

Honestly, if Crist drops out then Rubio probably wins this one easier. Any increase in black voters for Meek will be offset by then number of conservative democrats who are supporting Crist switching to Rubio.

[golfguru]

29. I can not fathom how Moderates can break for Rubio

please explain.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

31. He's No Different Than Connie Mack

And the last time the economic and political environment was similar to this he trounced the Democratic candidate by more than thirty points. Google the 1994 Florida Senate race.

[wmbrew0206]

34. You have to know Florida to be able to understand this, but let me see if I can explain.

You have essentially three different states in Florida. The Miami-Ft. Lauderdale-West Palm Beach area which is heavily democratic, the I-4 corridor from Tampa to Orlando to Jacksonville, and then north and northeastern Florida. While the I-4 corridor and north and northeastern Florida look at themselves as southern, the Miami-Ft. L-WPB area does not. They are either Hispanic or snow bird/retirees. Both groups look down at the other.

Meek is black and coming out of South Florida. Those are two disadvantages he has right there. Most of his support is coming from the African Americans and the Miami area, with some support in the other major cities. Most of Crist support is coming from independents and democrats in the I-4 corridor and north and northeast Florida.

If Crist were to drop out, a greater percentage of these voters would break for Rubio over Meek. The reasons are that Rubio is not black (I hate to say it but it is true) and most of these voters are considered more conservative than progressive. Even the democratic voters are more conservative than progressive, think Allen Boyd. They will break for Rubio in sufficient numbers to allow him to win by holding his base and picking off enough of the white working class vote.

Meek does not really fit the profile of an electable state wide Florida democrat. They tend to be more conservative and from central or northern Florida. Meek is a good fit for the Miami-Ft. L-WPB area since he is about as progressive as that area is. However, he is much more progressive than the state is as a whole and that is why he is not getting a lot of traction in this election.

In this race we see the brilliance of Howard Dean. Dean recruited candidates that democrats but could win in state wide elections. They might not always be as progressive as we would like but they allowed us to control the house and the senate and if not pass everything we wanted, at least keep the rethugs from being able to enact their policies.

[K8-EEE]

42. Damn! I hate to be sleazy but

Isn't there an old boyfriend out there who could persuade Crist to drop out? I know I know but damn!! It's just so upsetting to think of the whole Dem situation in FL right now. RUBIO! gak....he's so awful.

[AtomicKitten]

9. Good grief, this race is like an E ticket ride. nt

[bvar22]

10. Waiting for the calls on DU for the Democrat to drop out.

Yes, Alice.
We have fallen down a hole.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. Why Isn't Meek Getting The Democratic Vote?

Charlie Crist has run three statewide races for Attorney General, Education Commissioner, and Governor and while he has won all three his Democratic opponents all ran good races and got at least 45% of the vote or more. Why is Meek running so poorly?

He's the weakest link, not Crist.

What a train wreck. Jeb Bush's protege in the Florida Senate is about to eat our lunch.

[Fire1]

13. I've got an obvious answer for that one. n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. I'd Like To Hear It

Charlie ran against Buddy Dyer for AG, Jim Davis for Gov, and some gentleman or lady for Education Commissioner whose name I forgot. Even though those folks lost they largely held the Democratic vote against Crist. Meek isn't doing that. Crist is a convenient candidate for soft Democrats and indys who are to the left of Rubio but to the right of Meek. Without Crist in the race the lion's share of them go to Rubio.

What a mess.

[Sancho]

15. The idiot Rubio is going to win with a minority of votes!

Crist and Meeks have been splitting the same voters (independents and progressives) for two months. Either would beat Rubio without the other.

:grr:

[Fire1]

16. That's what I'm thinking!! n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. Democrats Had No Problem In Voting Against Crist In The Past

They voted for Jim Davis, Buddy Dyer, and the person whose name I forgot when Crist ran for Education Commissioner. Why are Democrats not voting against Crist now?

[Fire1]

18. Oh, come now!! You can't be that naive. n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

23. I Am Naive

Why is Meek not doing well?

[Sancho]

20. Crist vetoed SB6, so the teachers are happy with him...

and he has won a few of the gay community. He has name recognition (more than Meeks). The majority of voters are split between Crist and Meeks. In an ideal world, Meeks would be an obvious choice over Rubio. As it is...Rubio can win with 40% of the voters.

[wmbrew0206]

30. Even without Crist, Rubio versus Meek would be an uphill battle for Meek.

Meek has two disadvantages in Florida, being black and being from South Florida. While he could expect a higher than normal turn out of African American voters, a large portion of the Allen Boyd, blue dog democrats would not vote for him. To make it worse, he is from South Florida, which central and northern Florida look down on as it is "not really part of Florida."

I just don't see the model that would allow Meek to defeat Rubio without Obama on the top of the national ticket.

[Freddie Stubbs]

21. It's 2000 all over again, without the butterfly ballots

[JCMach1]

19. It will be much closer than that, but advantage Rubio at the moment

[GSLevel9]

22. I think Kendrick may have had a real shot at it...

f-u Crist.

[Bluenorthwest]

24. Charlie Crist, October, 2008, on Palin being potential President:

"I think she'd do a great job. I mean, realize that, you know, she really is the only executive that's running -- the only one who has been the head of the government in Alaska. She's held executive positions as a mayor, executive position as a governor. Made those kinds of decisions. I think she's ready."
So any Democrat voting for him is voting for a Palin promoter. How charming.

[RockaFowler]

25. I love you Blue

:hug:

Chain Gang Charlie and Slick Marco are going down!!!

[Bluenorthwest]

27. Thanksyou and back at you

To be blunt about it, I got sick months ago of hearing this song and dance that Meek 'simply can not be elected'. Crist is a Recent Republican Reject, a Palin Promoter, a Chanter of 'drill baby drill'.
Kendrick Meek is the Democratic and only candidate.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

32. Can You Tell Me How Meek Closes A Twenty Point Deficit In Four Weeks?

And can you please point to a race in Florida history where that has occurred?

[wmbrew0206]

35. Obama gives Meek an appointment to deputy Cabinet post. That is the only way this turns out well.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

36. It's Too Late

This reminds me of one of the car wrecks on I-4 that blocks traffic for hour.

[wmbrew0206]

37. Or one on I-75 between Ft. Meyer and Naples on a Friday afternoon.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

38. I Haven't Been To Naples Since 87 Or So

Strictly an East Coast guy.

[wmbrew0206]

40. Maybe not. See the link.

It is from the WSJ, so take it for what it is worth.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704696304575538231382658298.html?KEYWORDS=crist+meek

[wmbrew0206]

43. Meek is staying in. See link.

http://www.sunshinestatenews.com/blog/kendrick-meek-insists-he-not-ending-senate-bid

[golfguru]

39. Meek singlehandedly thwarts a terrorist attempt

to blow up Miami International airport. That will do it for sure.
Remember he has law enforcement background and was a football player.

[angee_is_mad]

44. time for crist to home

and don't let the door hit you on the way out!