New poll shows John Dingell (MI-15) trailing?

[tritsofme]

A new independent poll has the dean of the U.S. House, Rep. John Dingell, trailing his Republican opponent, Rob Steele, by 4 percentage points.

The automated phone survey of 300 people in the 15th Congressional District showed Steele getting 43.8% of the vote. Dingell, a Dearborn Democrat and the longest-serving member of Congress, got 39.5%. About 11% were undecided. The gap is within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 5.6 percentage points. The poll was conducted Monday.

Dingell's campaign said the survey -- conducted by the Rossman Group of Lansing and Team TelCom -- is a Republican front and is contradicted by other polls in recent weeks.

Team TelCom's president Gary Reed has Republican ties, but Kelly Rossman-McKinney, CEO of the Rossman Group, has Democratic roots.

http://www.freep.com/article/20101008/NEWS15/10080315/1318/Poll-In-House-race-Rob-Steele-leads-John-Dingell-by-4-points

I haven't posted many polls lately, but this really shocked me. Pretty small sample size here leading to a larger MoE, so the poll does have a few issues. But this is not the first time I have heard noises about the district being more competitive than it should be. I can't believe Dingell will lose, but what is going on in this district?

[Arkana]

1. That leaves around 17 either undecided or unaccounted for.

Poll is crap.

[Mass]

2. 300 people? And conducted in one day? A lot of red flags there.

Note the difference is smaller than the MOE. I would wait to see other polls to check.

[Upton]

3. Cue up the attacks on the poll..

after all, it shows our side losing...it must be BS, there no other answer!!

[rocktivity]

4. Polls with less than 1000 respondents and/or more than a 3% margin of error

should always be taken with a pillar of salt.

:headbang:
rocktivity

[tritsofme]

5. I commonly have fun on this crowd's behalf.

But there are some real issues with this particular poll.

[KingFlorez]

6. Right, right

If it's negative, some people love to take it as the truth and get angry when someone dares to question it.

Let's be real here, this district includes Ann Arbor and that makes the odds of a Republicans leading beyond low. It's D+13, which is pretty much out of reach for a Republican, even this year.

[Drunken Irishman]

7. Not all polls are bad, but don't act like all are good, either.

A +/- of 5.6% is what one in the polling world would call radically inaccurate.

No one worth a lick should ever believe a poll with that MOE. Ever. Even if it had our guys up. It's way too big.

This is taught in the beginning days of basic political science classes. Mock us if you will, but I find this poll highly suspect with a MOE that large.

[Upton]

9. I'm not saying they're all good..

and this particular one may indeed have problems. However, I find it impossible to believe that every poll that has us trailing is bad...and you can't tell me there isn't a significant percentage here at DU who seem to feel that way.

[Drunken Irishman]

10. I don't think anyone is saying that...

But this poll is a throw away poll right off the bat. You just have to look at the MOE and how it doesn't jive with reality to know that.

I believe Reid is losing in Nevada. I believe Rubio is going to win in Florida.

I do not believe the Republican will win in this race, however.

[Turbineguy]

8. MI-15?

Krikey! Step out to take a leak and they've got 9 new intelligence services!