Gallup's likely voter screen is insane. It's EFFIN INSANE.

[Teaser]

look at this:





Conservatives as 54% of the electorate? Nuts. NUTS.

This isn't going to happen.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=385x513180

[golddigger]

1. They do this BS under "Likely Voters."

To me "likely voters" is the same as "some people say" BS.

[Mass]

2. These models are based on the idea moderates and liberals are not motivated and wont work

(enthusiasm factor). It may be true. It may not. This is what shows the importance of GOTV.

[Teaser]

4. but...

the point is the number is ridiculously low, even assuming low motivation.

I have no doubt that we stand a good chance of losing the House this year. But it will not nearly as bad as some of these polls project.

[Mass]

6. Of course, it is. Polling firm have created the narrative andthey will live by it until its end.

[OHdem10]

3. Conservative is a tricky,tricky term. Some people say they are

conservative just to fit into a crowd. They really are not.

Some people are cultural conservatives and liberal on fiscal
issues.

Some people think if you ask them about being conservative
you only mean social cultural issues.

In other words the Republicans have done a pretty good job
of making it socially unacceptable to be anything but conservative.


It has only been in last couple of years that Fiscal Conservatism
has even been mentioned.

There will be a lot of shocked people if they vote Republican
and the GOP does a hard right fiscal policy.

Interesting times ahead.

[Teaser]

5. I don't believe

that they are able to alter the historical trends in these numbers by this much.

[Generic Brad]

10. Republicans have also made it socially unacceptable to be Republican

What's a poor conservative to do?

[book_worm]

7. all the pollsters are using likely voter screens which enhances their turnout

and why they are leading all the polls--either it will happen or else the pollsters are driving the narative of the election with the media to convince the American people that the GOP is going to win. I hope that Dems and progressive indies wake up and smell the coffee.

[book_worm]

8. 46% conservative in '98 and the GOP lost 10 house seats that year.

[ProSense]

9. Democratic success is all about

turnout