PA politics: Lackawanna County (includes Scranton) maintains 2-1 Dem registration

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SCRANTON – Voter registration for the 2010 general election closed on Monday, Oct. 4, and not much has changed in the historic Democratic registration among Lackawanna County voters.

Numbers released Thursday by Lackawanna County Director of Elections Marion Medalis show that 150,493 voters are registered prior to the November 2 general election. That’s down from 157,314 from the 2008 general election.

After the November 2008 election, voters who were placed on an inactive list and missed another prior general federal election were removed from the list of eligible voters, Medalis explained.

In 2008, Democratic registration was at 65 percent with 102,310 registered Democrats versus 42,864 registered Republicans. In the upcoming election, 98,807 voters are registered Democrats and 39,646 are registered Republicans, a consistent 2:1 split.

Len Champney, Ph.D., a professor of political science at the University of Scranton, said the attrition of voters could be a result of the surge in registration for the Presidential election in 2008.

The county’s aging population, which is one of the oldest in the country, may have something to do with the loss of registered voters.

The economy has been a major speaking point in the upcoming election due to the actions of Tea Party activists.

Those candidates and voters strongly support smaller government and show conservative values and spending on an economic front.

“You’re not hearing a lot of talk about the social issues on this campaign,” Champney said.

Champney said local incumbent Democrats may not be subjected to the so-called anti-incumbent movement that has been discussed across the country.

“This is historically predictable in a year where the Presidency is not being contested,” he said of the anti-incumbent notion.

“Historically, we would anticipate that Democrats would lose seats in the (United States) House and Senate,” but not enough to lose majority control over either chamber of Congress, he continued.

U.S. Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D, PA-11) faces Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta for the third time. If any Democrat is vulnerable to voter backlash, it’s the longtime incumbent, Champney said.

“This is Barletta’s best shot at Kanjorski. If he can’t get Kanjorski this year, Barletta should give up,” he said.

The strongest Democrat up for re-election, in Champney’s opinion, is U.S. Rep. Chris Carney (D, PA-10), who faces Republican challenger Tom Marino in what’s become a very highly publicized campaign.

“Carney knows how the game is played. Typically, you’d say being a Washington insider is a disadvantage. Carney spent a lot of time in Washington before he ran for Congress, so what he understands very well is how to use the advantages of incumbency,” he said.

Carney’s record of bringing federal dollars back to his constituents could also aid his tally of votes, he added.

He predicted U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak (D, PA-7) would carry Lackawanna County, but his success in a statewide election against Republican Pat Toomey would rely on voter turnout across the state.

“High turnout favors Democrats. You know the Tea Party activists and the base of the Republican Party are going to vote. What the Democrats have to do is convince the Democratic base to come out, or the Republicans will be back in the driver’s seat,” Champney said.

In the local Pennsylvania House of Representatives and Senate races, Champney predicted very little change.

“I don’t think Lackawanna County is under any risk of voting Republican,” he said

http://www.timesleader.com/golackawanna/news/Registration_down_slightly_ahead_of_election_10-10-2010.html