I can't wait to see the egg on the faces of the pundits and pollsters on 11/2 when...

[book_worm]

the Democrats retain control of the House and Seante and win back such governorships as Florida, California, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Vermont, Minnesota & Hawaii. Furthermore I predict today that Dems will win some of the close elections for the Senate in:

Pennsylvania
Wisconsin, yes Feingold will win.
West Virginia
Illinois
Colorado
Washington
California
Kentucky--you're going down Rand Paul!

The pollsters will say, 'well, we always showed that among registered voters the dems were leading but we chose to publish the 'likely voter' numbers because the republicans had all the enthusiasm--we never thought that the dems would actually get out and vote!

[Stuart G]

1. I hope that you are one hundred percent correct.. I don't like

using the word right during these tough times.

[Dawson Leery]

2. k/r

The Cook/Silver/Sobato mob have the Democrats losing 8 Governorships (net). That is is NOT going to happen.

[bbinacan]

3. I need a hit

of what you're smoking.:smoke:

[stray cat]

4. You may be waiting a long time - if dems don't vote we won't win

[cascadiance]

5. So you think we'll have a new Senate Majority leader for the Dems?

Perhaps one that kicks more butt, even though we'll have to find ways to deal with that Angle character.

[Cosmocat]

6. Let me tell you something about Pennsylvania ...

Pa is not quite as purple as the MSM wants to make it out to be ...

There is a VERY marked democratic registration advantage. Now, it is bloated a good bit by college registrations, so you have to throw some of them out ...

But, there have been three statewide races in the last four years, and while technically, the polls have been "right" in that they called the races, they have not been real precise, and undershot the democrat ...

In 2006 it was Rendell vs Swann.
The RCP average of all polls going into the election was Rendell 57.8 and Swann 36. The actual was Rendell 60.4 and Swann 39.6

In 2006 it was Casey vs Santorum. The RCP average was Casey 52.3 and Santorum 40.8. The actual was Casey 59 and Santorum 41.

In 2008 it was BO v McCain. The RCP average going into the election was BO 51 and McCain 43.7. The actual was Bo 54.7 and McCcain 44.3.

Some points ...

1) First off, the last three major state races the dem ended up SMOKING the R. Now, Swann was a really weak candidate, but Santorum was one of the toughest candidates you could face, and all the noise going into the presidential election was how BO had problems with the average Pennsylvanian.

2) The polls have been pretty accurate on the final count for the R candidate.

3) The polls have undershot the dem candidate's percentage by a substancial mark ... Pretty much three points give or take ...

Right now, RCP has Sestak down by 7 to Toomey ... Sestak ran his campaign on a late run against Spector in the primary, was down by about the same margin and won ... Now, if the poll of polls shows him down 7, I think he is clearly down. But, he waited to the last month to start hitting Specter and closed on him, and that is what he is doing now. He is running similary effective ads against Toomey ... As long as he can drag Toomey down to the 45 range give or take and close to even or one or two out, this can very easily go his way ...

I do NOT think he is down 7 now ... I think they are undershooting his support by at least a few points ... Again, he has to hit Toomey at his soft spots, and he has them, and then we have to get GOTV and OFA cranking ...

A side note, a big thank you to people coming in out of state to help Sestak ... He is a DAMN good man, and on his own merits a candidate worth fighting for ... Toomey - he literally, and this is not hyperbole, he is more "conservative" than Santorum, who was a foaming at the mouth lunatic ...

[Dawson Leery]

8. 51% of PA is registered as Democrats

as compared to 37% for the GOP.
That is a massive advantage. If you can get the base out in PA, Sestak and you candidate for Governor should win.

[Cosmocat]

11. Onorato ...

is clearly the better candidate than Corbett ... Corbett is AG, so he has won a statewide election, but Onorato has been a VERY good CEO for allegheny county (Pittsburgh). The county was either at or near bankruptcy when he came in, he has had balanced budgets the last seven years, and has never had a property tax increase ... He also cut the size of government by cutting out 7 ROW officers, all of which were democrats ...

Honestly, for all the never ending lip service to no taxes and fiscal conservatism, he is what the Rs say they are ...

Corbett, in the same sentence will say he is going to balance the budget, have no new taxes AND in fact have tax cuts ... That friggen math does not work for a state as deep in the hole as PA is ...

BUT, the state is a little goofy about state jobs ... The state senate is strongly R controlled, and the house is under a D/R split, and probably is going to go back to full D control this cycle ...

He is in a deeper hole than Sestak is, and the state also has his rotational thing between Rs and Ds with the governorship, and Rendell is going out, so people are in the its an Rs turn mindset ... AND, Fast Eddie is a lot like Bill Clinton, good for himself, not so good for anyone else ... His tenure has not left it easy for a D to follow in his footsteps ...

If Onorato somehow wins, then Sestak will surely have won ... I want to see Onorato win, because IMO, he wants to DO the job, Corbett wants the job, and I honestly believe Onorato will do a better job ... Also, redistricting after the census ... But, he has his work cut out for him ...

The factors I noted, as well as the fact that the votes for Ds lean HARD in the other side of the state - Philly, and he is a complete unknown there ...

[Dawson Leery]

12. So there will be voters who split their ballots then.

Sestak for Senate, Corbett for Governor, a GOP Senate and a Democratic House.

[Cosmocat]

15. That's the way it looks ...

Corbett has been State AG, and has prosecuted a lot of state level officials, he spent about three years going after Ds hard, to get his status as the governor front runner up with the party Rs in the state, then taken a turn the last year and a half going after some Rs to make the image of him being a non-partisan type ...

Also, just saw a generic attack ad against Onorato pairing him up with Rendell ... Again, Rendell has made it hard for any D to follow him ...

I WANT Onorato to win, again, I think he will do the job best, and this state is an absolute joke with its congressional districts ... Seriously google it and check it out, it is like someone was drunk and did a gig saw puzzle ... No lie, there are districts that literally have portions of the district that do not connect to other portions of the district ...

In a better year for Ds it might happen, but getting Sestak elected will likely be best case scenario ...

[Dawson Leery]

18. I see.

Keep working! GOTV!

[Mefistofeles]

9. So you think Sestak will win?

?

[Cosmocat]

10. Not today ...

If it were today, no ...

I think the average poll right now has him down 7 points ...

I dont' think he is down 7 ... Given the past three major elections I noted, I would say he probably is down 4, maybe 5 at worst ... There have been some polls that have had Toomey at or close to 50, I don't think he has been there lately, but again, I want to see Sestak pull him down to 46 at worst, and get himself up to about 44 or 45 at worst ...

If he gets somewhere like that, I think he can get it ...

[Ozymanithrax]

7. We have a government elected by a majority... of those who vote

Hope your right.

[rbilancia]

13. That can all happen IF we visciously ATTACK the radical RePUKES, work on campaigns, and VOTE.

[budkin]

14. I wish I was as optimistic

I'm pretty sure that we'll hold the Senate, but the House picture looks bleak.

[rbilancia]

16. Not bleak if Dems work and turn out. Estimates are being based on low Dem turnout. Chin up and VOTE.

[NewJeffCT]

17. Ads attacking the GOP as defending the wealthy have worked wonders

Boxer's ad about Fiorina buying a million dollar yacht while laying off thousands...
Blumenthal's ad about McMahon taking a $46 million bonus the year she laid off 10% of her workforce...

They have both stopped the momemtum of Republican candidates.

[old mark]

19. Make sure we win - donate and help, doing anything you can, and by all means

vote on November 2...


mark