Two very large groups that are never questioned in a poll...or asked anything

[Stuart G]

that you see in polls..
A...people without phones...(about 6 to 7 percent of the adult population)
B...people without permanent places to live.

Now those no phone people..yea it is that large..could vote for us. and if they do, well these polls could all be wrong, very very wrong..

Yes, the polling companies call people, but not a lot of them, go out and ask a random sample (like go to places of residence)... If we can get no phoners to vote for us, and some with semi-permanent residences..no homers .. to vote for us..(and these are generally poor people, not all..) well. guess who is all wrong?

That has happened before..hasn't it?
(please do not underestimate this number...it could be our winning number..that shows them all wrong..)
If you know anyone in this group..please, please, please...
... get them out to vote....thanks..

[HockeyMom]

1. Cell phones

When I lived in another state and had a land line phone, I always got calls. Now with my cell phone only, I never get any calls of any kind.

Since a lot of people now only have cell phones, is this factored into the mix?

[Stuart G]

2. I don't know...I have read that it often isn't..that youth has more

cell phones and youth (under 30s) are not fairly represented. But honestly..I do not know.

[Extend a Hand]

3. I use to get polled all the time

when I had a land line. Never, since we went cell phone only.

[CBR]

9. I never used to get polled on my cell. I have twice this election season.

I only have a cell.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

19. Off topic, but I was so happy to see a Chris Coons bumper sticker as I drove

home to MD from NJ this weekend. It was an older couple, too! The DE race is scaring me senseless. I know Chris is leading, but I'm amazed at how much mainstream media attention this O'Donnel gal is getting. The M$M is treating her as if she is a major national candidate. Is Chris Coons getting any airtime at all?

[Stuart G]

20. According to all polls and projections..

O'Donnel has one percent chance of winning.
Coons 99 percent chance..things would have to change dramatically for her to win..

Most people see her as a nut case.

NYT analysis..

http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/senate/delaware

[Tesha]

11. This will be interesting for us to see.

Mr. Tesha has a cell phone number that has always been
a cell phone number.

My iPhone 4, by comparison, has got the traditional "family"
land-line phone number that we ported to it.

So far this year, I've gotten polled several times; by comparison,
he's never been polled in the several years he's had his iPhone.

Tesha

[Exilednight]

12. Yes. Over the past few years polling companies have begun ............

collecting cell phone numbers as long as the person states that the cell phone is their primary number.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. Some Polling Organizations Poll Cell Phone Users

But I guess if you are phoneless you have no chance of getting polled.

[Stuart G]

5. And, I would like to add this:

Poverty has increased greatly the least 10 years..People cannot believe that there are people without any phones at all. Well, guess what, there are and there are a lot.
And people do not like to admit that they are poor.
.. If it is a phone or food. Guess what some families choose. Or a phone or a cheap rental place..well a roof is better than a phone.

It is sad, but this is very true.

and..most poverty the U.S. is invisible..we don't know who or where they are..do we?

Michael Harrington wrote .."The Other America" about this 50 years ago..it is still true today..more so
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Other_America

[RaleighNCDUer]

6. One thing I've noticed is that many days when I'm home sick from work

I'll get phone polling calls which I'd have missed if I was at work. That indicates to me that a LOT of the people getting these calls are not working-class working age citizens, but stay-at-home moms (get by on a single paycheck, skewing towards wealth) and the retired, who would be at home during the day, or, conversely, the discouraged unemployed who aren't dragging themselves out to hunt for a job that isn't there.

Middle-class, working Americans would be vastly underrepresented.

[Bitwit1234]

7. I am 77 years old have a land line and a cell phone

have been voting for over 55 years and have never ever ever received a political poll telephone call. You would think in all those years with a land line phone and listed in a TELEPHONE book I would have received a random call. In all those years not one of the companies have ever called have ever sent me a survey about my TV etc. So there are a lot of people never polled. I have said it over and over 700 or so, and we find it is indeed not random, do not represent this country. We are being brainwashed to think, the republicans are going to win because I do really truly believe they are trying ot get into most electronic voting machines to program the results. And they want us to believe they are legitimate.

[Exilednight]

13. There's a reason for that ............

Polling companies collect their numbers from third party groups and companies. Filling out surveys, volunteering for non-profits who collect information, etc etc. It's quiet rare that a polling company actually pulls out a phone book and randomly begins calling numbers.

[BrklynLiberal]

8. Dewey vs Truman.

[FBaggins]

10. But on what basis do we believe that they're any different from prior years?

Ignoring the errors in your assumptions (that others have already addressed), You can't just say "they aren't polled".

You have to craft a theory re: why they are more likely to vote for us (indeed, vote at all) than they were in 2006 or 2008.

What causes a "no phoned" to prefer democrats that doesn't influence those with phones?

[BadgerKid]

14. Any numbers on the Do-Not-Call List aren't exempt from surveyors.

The National Do Not Call Registry applies to any plan, program, or campaign to sell goods or services through interstate phone calls. This includes telemarketers who solicit consumers, often on behalf of third party sellers. It also includes sellers who provide, offer to provide, or arrange to provide goods or services to consumers in exchange for payment.

The National Do Not Call Registry does not limit calls by political organizations, charities, or telephone surveyors.

https://www.donotcall.gov/faq/faqbusiness.aspx

[Codeine]

15. They aren't polled. They also don't vote. nt

[angee_is_mad]

16. and Black people

except for exit polling.

[Stuart G]

17. Famous polling error...1936 Literary Digest Poll...also forgot no phone people...

Opinion polls, like other surveys, are a way of inferring the characteristics of a large group—called "the population"—from a small sample of it. In order for this inference to be cogent, the sample must accurately represent the population. Thus, the main error to avoid is an unrepresentative sample. For example, the most famous polling fiasco was the Literary Digest poll in the 1936 presidential election. The magazine surveyed over two million people, chosen from the magazine's subscriber list, phone books, and car registrations. Even though the sample was enormous, it was unrepresentative of the population of voters because not everyone could afford a phone or car during the Depression, and those who could tended to vote Republican in greater numbers than those who couldn't. As a result of this biased sample, the poll showed Republican Alf Landon beating the actual winner, Democrat Franklin Roosevelt....link:

http://www.fallacyfiles.org/readpoll.html

[pstokely]

18. But those people are probably more likely to vote

than some transient person with no landline

[Ter]

21. "People without permanent places to live?"

I'm pretty sure the last thing on their mind is voting.