The Hill Poll - Week Two (Open Seats).

[FBaggins]

Note - This isn't as bad as it might seem. Open seats are of course where you're most vulnerable, so if we're going to lose even twenty seats this year, most of these would be on the list. The final two polls will be the more telling ones. The only surprise to me is the Hawaii results. (I've bolded the races where we have a lead). Polling provided to The Hill by Penn Schoen Berland (D).



THE HILL POLL: Republicans are up in 8 of 10 open House districts:

Republicans are winning eight out of 10 competitive open House seats surveyed in a groundbreaking new poll by The Hill.

Taken on top of 11 GOP leads out of 12 freshman Democratic districts polled last week, The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll points toward 19 Republican victories out of 22 races, while Democrats win only two and one is tied.



Arkansas 1st District - Crawford 46, Causey 34
Illinois 10th District - Seals 49, Dold 37
West Virginia 1st District - Oliverio 42, McKinley 39
Hawaii 1st District -Djou 45, Hanabusa 41
New Hampshire 2nd District - Bass 45, Kuster 42
Pennsylvania 7th District - Meehan 40, Lentz 39
Michigan 1st District - Benishek 42, McDowell 39
Tennessee 8th District - Fincher 47, Herron 37
Washington 3rd District - Herrera 42, Heck 40


On edit - Better link - http://thehill.com/house-polls/thehill-poll-week-2/123965-republicans-are-up-in-8-of-10-open-house-seats

[WI_DEM]

1. good news on the IL 10th other polls have shown Hanabusa up in HA 1

but they have all been close, which I expect it will be. Hopefully the democratic edge in registration will win it in the end.

[bigdarryl]

2. NO not registration VOTING!!! will win

[FBaggins]

3. I suspect that we'll know about Hawaii by what happens on the East Coast.

That is... if it's a good night for us, republicans in Hawaii will know about it in the mid afternoon and will get discouraged. Similarly, if it's a nightmare... our voters will know it well before the polls close. The race is close enough that the impact on turnout could make the difference.

The surprising thing to me is that it's this close (even expecting a bad year for democrats in general). I thought that the only reason the republican won the special election was because Case and Hanabusa could get together and decide who the Democrat would be (thus splitting the vote) and the DCCC backed out to save their resources for November. Once there was a normal primary, I expected the race to easily flip back.

Maybe there's still some bad blood between supporters of Case and Hanabusa?