Pew: cellphone bias may be bigger than in '08

[jefferson_dem]

Frankly, this is the most promising news i've seen in a while. Could we be in for a "November 2" surprise?

Pew: cellphone bias may be bigger than in '08

In a new analysis sure to add to the uncertainty about the upcoming election, the Pew Research Center reports that a large number of pre-election polls might be biased.

Polls that don't interview people on cellphones are producing potentially inaccurate results, according to the Pew study. The vast majority of political polls today only interview on conventional, landline telephones.

Looking at their most recently released poll, Pew shows that a 7-point Republican advantage on the generic congressional vote question would have been a wider 12-point lead had they not included cellphone interviews. Three of four other Pew polls this year would have shown similar tilts toward the GOP, leading to Pew's conclusion that "the bias is as large, and potentially even larger, than it was in 2008."

Nationally, Pew and some others (including The Washington Post) interview on cellphones, but few state- and district-level polls do so. Almost no automated polls include cellphone samples, in part because of the legal prohibition against having computers dial cellphone numbers. Approximately 25 percent of all U.S. adults are "cell only."

While Pew's update to their long-running research on cellphones and surveys isn't a broad rebuke to pollsters who don't interview on cellphones, it raises fresh doubts about the precision of the reams of polling data fueling estimates of what may happen on Nov. 2.

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/behind-the-numbers/2010/10/pew_cellphone_bias_may_be_bigg.html

Cell Phones and Election Polls: An Update
October 13, 2010

The latest estimates of telephone coverage by the National Center for Health Statistics found that a quarter of U.S. households have only a cell phone and cannot be reached by a landline telephone. Cell-only adults are demographically and politically different from those who live in landline households; as a result, election polls that rely only on landline samples may be biased. Although some survey organizations now include cell phones in their samples, many -- including virtually all of the automated polls -- do not include interviews with people on their cell phones. (For more on the impact of the growing cell-only population on survey research, see "Assessing the Cell Phone Challenge," May 20, 2010).

It is possible to estimate the size of this potential bias. The Pew Research Center for the People & the Press conducts surveys with samples of landline and cell phones, which allow for comparisons of findings from combined landline and cell interviews with those only from landline interviews. Data from Pew Research Center polling this year suggest that the bias is as large, and potentially even larger, than it was in 2008 (See "Calling Cell Phones in '08 Pre-Election Polls," Dec. 18, 2008).

In three of four election polls conducted since the spring of this year, estimates from the landline samples alone produced slightly more support for Republican candidates and less support for Democratic candidates, resulting in differences of four to six points in the margin. One poll showed no difference between the landline and combined samples.

In the Pew Research Center's latest poll, conducted Aug. 25 to Sept. 6 among 2,816 registered voters, including 786 reached by cell phone, 44% said that if the election were held today that they would vote for the Republican candidate for Congress in their district or leaned Republican, while 47% would vote for the Democratic candidate or leaned Democratic. Among the landline respondents, 46% preferred the GOP candidate and 45% the Democratic candidate, a four-point shift in the margin. In this survey, both estimates would have shown a close race between Republicans and Democrats.



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http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1761/cell-phones-and-election-polls-2010-midterm-elections

[catbyte]

1. That's what I'm counting on! :)

Although I can't believe that cellphone use favors the GOP. Maybe I'm NOT counting on it...

[pstokely]

3. Those whose landlines are their primary phone are likely to be older and white

but unfortunately "likely" voters, those with cell phones only are likely younger, minority, transient and less likely to vote if they're even registered

[Speck Tater]

4. I wonder how true that is.

I'm white, over 65 and living in a house I've owned for 15 years, and my only phone is my cell phone because it's cheaper than a land line. So I don't fit any of those generalizations.

[WI_DEM]

2. When I moved I got rid of my land line and only use my cell for phone.

[Froward69]

5. Thus we get subjcted to republicans touting polls

when the truth is out there using Cell phones.

[Betty Karlson]

6. The truth is calling some poll analysers:

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/10/13/is_cell_phone_bias_skewing_polls.html

Will someone please dial 0800-GOP-LOST ?

[Radical Activist]

7. The disconnected number bias is even more overlooked.

It means polls are weighted to the middle class and under-samples the working poor. It's one reason why African-American candidates often do better than expected.

[Retrograde]

8. and the "not picking up when a surveyor calls" bias

I love caller id: it makes it easier to ignore the surveys and begging for contributions calls. (I still send money to selected candidates, but at my choosing)

[Arkana]

9. All the "likely voter" models are completely out-of-date. None of them

take into account any of the millions of new voters from 2008. They just assume if you're young or a minority that you're not going to show up.

[pstokely]

10. Most of them probably won't

We can win if we got enough of them out, but we can't get all of them out. The young and minority are less likely to show up. They may show up, but they aren't as likely to as older white suburban homeowners with landlines.