PA-Sen: Sestak takes the lead! (DSCC poll)

[ProSense]

PA-Sen: Sestak takes the lead!

by Chris Bowers

Hart Research for the DSCC. 10/8-10/10, 604 likely voters. MoE 4.0:

Sestak (D): 47
Toomey (R): 44

This is the first poll in a while to show Sestak ahead in Pennsylvania, and it’s an internal poll. However, my research on polling averages suggests that including internal polls in the final averages actually increases the accuracy of the averages. Also, it is the first Pennsylvania poll that will be included in the final Senate Snapshot, since the majority of its interviews were conducted on or after October 8th.

Bottom line: even with the caveats, this poll shows Pennsylvania is a very winnable campaign. As such, we are adding Joe Sestak to the Orange to Blue page, and are looking for 500 people to contribute $10 to support Joe.

This is the sort of win that would end Republican plans to take control of Congress. If we can grab a win in Pennsylvania, then Republicans would only have a 0.5% of taking control of the Senate, according to my calculations.

It would also deal a crushing blow to the Tea Party, aka the new name for the long-standing conservative effort to elect the far-right Republicans. As head of the Club for Growth, Sestak’s opponent Pat Toomey spearheaded this effort for years even before it started calling itself the "Tea Party." A contribution to defeat Toomey is a contribution to defeat one of the conservative movement’s ringleaders.

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[WI_DEM]

1. I definitely don't think PA is over by any means. But it will depend on turnout for sure

If Dems can get out and vote in solid numbers in Philly and Pittsburgh--it can be done.

[Cosmocat]

9. Again ...

PA is not as purple as the MSM makes it out to be ...

There is a VERY large margin of registered Ds over registered Rs. This includes a lot of empty university students, but even at that, the Ds still have a marked advantage on the rolls.

The last three statewide races the D has smoked the R:
BO 54.7 and McCain 43.7 (this with all the MSM babbling about how BO had problems with Pa voters)
Rendell 57.8 and Swann 36
Casey 59 and Santorum 41

Swann was a pretty weak candidate, but Casey was an incumbant who was a relentless and tough campaigner and who raised more money for a senate race than every in history ...

Also, again, the polls got the win right, and a good margin, and for the most part the R percentage, but in each race undershot the D percentage by a meaningful number.

the RCP average going into the election for these races:
BO 51 and McCain 43.7
Rendell 57.8 and Swann 39.6
Casey 52.3 and Santorum 40.8

As others noted, Sestak was down about 7 to Specter at this point in the primary, ran him down and beat him by about 7 ... He isn't going to win by 7, but he has cash and had held it for his media buys down the stretch like he did in the primary ... He is running VERY effective ads and if he can pull Toomey down by exposing him for the Wall Street shill/SS hater he is, he can close the gap ...

Sestak is a VERY, VERY good man, and Toomey is Santorum redeux ...

[DCBob]

2. Quite a nice turn of events!

Things are looking up!

[Hepburn]

3. Yes!

:bounce:

KnR

[disillusioned73]

4. K&R

:dem:

[blue neen]

5. Thanks for the great news!

Sestak has been running some very effective ads here lately.

:dem:

[Kdillard]

6. Great news. Hopefully other polls will confirm it.

[Drunken Irishman]

7. I'll wait for an independent poll that verifies this one...

But I am cautiously optimistic.

[mkultra]

8. awesome. im glad he beat spector

[kentuck]

10. Don't write off Joe Sestak.

He is a fighter.

[Bravo Zulu]

11. I guarantee Joe Sestak will win,

I also contributed to his campaign to help him along!

[saltpoint]

12. I'm rooting for Joe.

I wanted him to defeat Arlen in the primary and now I want him to be the next U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania.

Toomey is monstrous and has no business in public service.

[appleannie1]

13. WOO HOO. There have been 15 negative ads to every Sestak ad.

[GreenTea]

14. It ALL depends on how many Dems turnout & all that corporate money - That's what the republicans

are counting on all the secret hundreds of millions of corporate dollars they plan to spend flooding the airwaves with, lies, smears & distortions the last weeks before the elections - Sestak's race, Grayson's and many other Dem candidates races are targeted up the the final days to the elections.

Donate to Dems if you can!

www.actblue.com

[budkin]

15. The House of Ras has Toomey up 10 pts today

But you know them...

[FBaggins]

16. It would be easier to discount...

...if it wasn't consistent with all the other public polling over the last couple months.

I'm not saying that it's a ten point race. It's a five or six point race, but the occasional "3" or "10" is going to pop up in a six-point race.

[Scurrilous]

17. K & R

:thumbsup:

[AtomicKitten]

18. Wow! He's done an amazing job closing the gap.

K&R