A comprehensive review of all the polls released on 10/13--

[WI_DEM]

www.dailykos.com

With The Hill, CNN, and the House of Ras all making considerable contributions, today's edition of the Wrap is more data-heavy than the average. The final poll count sits at 49 polls including a faintly absurd triad of polls in Delaware's Senate race (hint to America's media outlets--it ain't close, and it ain't gonna be close. Please move on).

There is a lot of good news for Dems in there, particularly in the Northeastern US. Some of the House race horserace polls are less than savory, with a couple of new races to put firmly on the endangered list, and one race that has been off of almost everyone's radar showing close in public polling.

All this (and more!) in the mid-week edition of the Wrap...

THE U.S. SENATE

Delaware Senate (SurveyUSA):
Chris Coons (D) 54%, Christine O'Donnell (R) 33%, Others 5%


Delaware Senate (CNN):
Chris Coons (D) 57%, Christine O'Donnell (R) 38%


Delaware Senate (Magellan--R):
Chris Coons (D) 54%, Christine O'Donnell (R) 36%


Florida Senate (Quinnipiac):
Marco Rubio (R) 44%, Charlie Crist (I) 30%, Kendrick Meek (D) 22%


Florida Senate (Susquehanna--R):
Marco Rubio (R) 45%, Charlie Crist (I) 29%, Kendrick Meek (D) 22%


Nevada Senate (Suffolk Univ):
Sen. Harry Reid (D) 46%, Sharron Angle (R) 43%, Others 8%


Pennsylvania Senate (Garin Hart Yang--D):
Joe Sestak (D) 47%, Patrick Toomey (R) 44%


Pennsylvania Senate (Bennett Petts Normington--D):
Patrick Toomey (R) 46%, Joe Sestak (D) 45%


South Carolina Senate (Winthrop Univ):
Sen. Jim DeMint (R) 58%, Tom Clements (G) 12%, Alvin Greene (D) 11%


Washington Senate (CNN):
Sen. Patty Murray (D) 51%, Dino Rossi (R) 43%


West Virginia Senate (CNN):
Joe Manchin (D) 44%, John Raese (R) 44%, Jesse Johnson (M) 5%


West Virginia Senate (GQR--D):
Joe Manchin (D) 49%, John Raese (R) 44%


Wisconsin Senate (CNN):
Ron Johnson (R) 52%, Sen. Russ Feingold (D) 44%


THE ANALYSIS: One of the better polling days in recent memory on the Senate level. Apparently, the "hicky" ad is sucking support away from Republican John Raese, as both CNN and Democratic pollsters Greenberg Quinlan Rosner see some movement, as does the House of Ras (more on them later). Worth noting: among RVs, the CNN poll gave Manchin a pretty notable lead of seven points (45-38) over Raese. CNN, to some extent, joins Elway Research in debunking the "Rossi surge" in Washington, showing a similar lead to earlier polls in the state. Curiously, Murray actually does a bit worse among RVs. Three polls confirm the Delaware blowout, and given what we are seeing from two Dem pollsters in the neighboring Keystone State, you kinda wish that these poll sponsors would give up their bizarre fixation with Delaware and head north to give additional data points in the Sestak/Toomey battle. Another pollster shows Harry Reid ekeing back into a narrow lead, while a new polling voice in the Palmetto State puts Democrat Alvin Greene behind Green Party candidate Tom Clements, albeit by a single point.

THE U.S. HOUSE

Arizona-07 (Summit Consulting--R):
Ruth McClung (R) 39%, Rep. Raul Grijalva (D) 37%


Arkansas-01 (Penn Schoen Berland):
Rick Crawford (R) 46%, Chad Causey (D) 34%


California-11 (SurveyUSA):
David Harmer (R) 48%, Rep. Jerry McNerney (D) 42%, Others 4%


California-11 (Lake Research--D):
Rep. Jerry McNerney (D) 45%, David Harmer (R) 35%, Others 5%


Georgia-02 (Public Opinion Strategies--R):
Rep. Sanford Bishop (D) 47%, Mike Keown (R) 46%


Hawaii-01 (Penn Schoen Berland):
Rep. Charles Djou (R) 45%, Colleen Hanabusa (D) 41%


Illinois-10 (Penn Schoen Berland):
Dan Seals (D) 49%, Robert Dold (R) 37%


Kansas-04 (Cole Hargrave Snodgrass--R):
Mike Pompeo (R) 49%, Raj Goyle (D) 31%, Others 6%


Michigan-01 (Penn Schoen Berland):
Dan Benishek (R) 42%, Gary McDowell (D) 39%


New Hampshire-02 (Penn Schoen Berland):
Charlie Bass (R) 45%, Ann Kuster (D) 42%


New Jersey-12 (Monmouth Univ):
Rep. Rush Holt (D) 51%, Scott Sipprelle (R) 46%


New York-01 (Siena College):
Rep. Tim Bishop (D) 51%, Randy Altschuler (R) 39%


New York-19 (Siena College):
Nan Hayworth (R) 46%, Rep. John Hall (D) 43%


New York-23 (Siena College):
Rep. Bill Owens (D) 44%, Matt Doheny (R) 39%, Doug Hoffman (C) 1%


New York-24 (McLaughlin--R):
Richard Hanna (R) 46%, Rep. Michael Arcuri (D) 43%


Pennsylvania-07 (Penn Schoen Berland):
Pat Meehan (R) 40%, Bryan Lentz (D) 39%


Pennsylvania-11 (Franklin and Marshall):
Lou Barletta (R) 47%, Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D) 40%


Pennsylvania-12 (Susquehanna--R):
Rep. Mark Critz (D) 43%, Tim Burns (R) 36%


Rhode Island-01 (Quest Research):
David Cicilline (D) 47%, John Loughlin (R) 36%


Rhode Island-02 (Quest Research):
Rep. Jim Langevin (D) 65%, Mark Zaccaria (R) 26%, John Matson (I) 3%


Tennessee-08 (Penn Schoen Berland):
Stephen Fincher (R) 47%, Roy Herron (D) 37%


Utah-02 (Utah Policy Center):
Rep. Jim Matheson (D) 46%, Morgan Philpot (R) 30%


Washington-03 (Penn Schoen Berland):
Jaime Herrera (R) 42%, Denny Heck (D) 40%


West Virginia-01 (Penn Schoen Berland):
Mike Oliverio (D) 42%, David McKinley (R) 39%


Wisconsin-07 (Penn Schoen Berland):
Sean Duffy (R) 44%, Julie Lassa (D) 35%


THE ANALYSIS: Both Republicans and Democrats can find things to thump their chests about in this set of polling, leaving us with a net wash. The Hill polls were originally limned as some kind of a Democratic disaster, but the net effect might be positive for the Democrats. There were a number of races that a lot of folks left for dead (MI-01, PA-07, WA-03) that look better for Democrats than any other polling in those races. Furthermore, it looks like Dan Seals has put away Bob Dold in the Illinois 10th. Democrats have to be pretty despondent about hearing that public polls have Jerry McNerney down six (though give McNerney's crew credit for an immediate pushback). Dems also cannot be thrilled to see the perennially safe Rush Holt up by just five. GOPers, meanwhile, had penciled in NY-01 and NY-24 as pickups. Siena College, in their new data, begs to differ. Last thought: I'd love to see a Democratic poll in the Arizona 7th, because I am still having a very hard time buying that race as a coin flip.

THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES

Florida Governor (PPP):
Alex Sink (D) 46%, Rick Scott (R) 41%


Nevada Governor (Suffolk Univ):
Brian Sandoval (R) 50%, Rory Reid (D) 39%, Others 5%


Rhode Island Governor (Quest Research):
Frank Caprio (D) 37%, Lincoln Chafee (I) 33%, John Robataille (R) 22%


South Carolina Governor (Winthrop Univ):
Nikki Haley (R) 46%, Vincent Sheheen (D) 37%


Wisconsin Governor (CNN):
Scott Walker (R) 52%, Tom Barrett (D) 44%


THE ANALYSIS: The pinging and ponging in the Sunshine State continues this week, and now it looks like it is Democrat Alex Sink enjoying the mini-surge. Meanwhile, yet another pollster confirms that Nikki Haley has not yet put away that nominally GOP-leaning gubernatorial race in the Palmetto State. Quick caveat on the Badger State's poll: among registered voters, Walker's lead shrinks from eight points down to just three points. Meanwhile, not much new ground gets plowed in either Nevada or Rhode Island.

THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA
The one that grabs my eye in this set of polls is the Ohio Governor's poll. I was, admittedly, expecting to see a Kasich blowout after seeing that the House of Ras had put Rob Portman up by 20+ points in the companion poll of the open-seat Senate race. To my (pleasant) surprise, they had the closest Ohio gubernatorial numbers emanating from the Ras-sies in months: Kasich +3. Similar movement in Maine, suggesting that recent races showing Paul LePage's GOP implosion is in full effect. Down East, Ras claims that LePage has lost fifteen points since the last time the House of Ras came to town.

All in all, not a bad day from the Ras-sies. With the exception of Scott Walker in Wisconsin, every Republican sees a smaller lead in this set of polling than their previous Ras standard.

ME-Gov: Paul LePage (R) 35%, Libby Mitchell (D) 32%, Eliot Cutler (I) 21%
NV-Sen: Sharron Angle (R) 49%, Harry Reid (D) 48%
NC-Sen: Rep. Richard Burr (R) 52%, Elaine Marshall (D) 38%
OH-Gov: John Kasich (R) 48%, Gov. Ted Strickland (D) 45%
WV-Sen: John Raese (R) 49%, Joe Manchin (D) 46%
WI-Gov: Scott Walker (R) 51%, Tom Barrett (D) 42%

[dccrossman]

1. Kick

Thanks for the roundup!