jefferson_dem
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Fri Oct-15-10 07:12 AM
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Post your Senate predictions here. |
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Edited on Fri Oct-15-10 07:53 AM by jefferson_dem
CURRENT: 59 Democrats, 41 Republicans
AFTER "FOR CERTAIN FLIPS" (Arkansas, Indiana, North Dakota): 56 Democrats, 44 Republicans IN PLAY (10 DEM, 3 REP):
Alaska (R) California (D) Colorado (D) Connecticut (D) Delaware (D) Florida (R) Illinois (D) Kentucky (R) Nevada (D) Pennsylvania (D) Washington (D) West Virginia (D) Wisconsin (D)
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jefferson_dem
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Fri Oct-15-10 07:13 AM
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1. Mine: Democrats 53, Republicans 47 |
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Edited on Fri Oct-15-10 07:53 AM by jefferson_dem
MY PREDICTION: Democrats 53, Republicans 47
Alaska (R) - HOLD (IND) California (D) - HOLD Colorado (D) - FLIP Connecticut (D) - HOLD Delaware (D) - HOLD Florida (R) - HOLD Illinois (D) - HOLD Kentucky (R) - HOLD Nevada (D) - HOLD Pennsylvania (D) - FLIP Washington (D) - HOLD West Virginia (D) - HOLD Wisconsin (D) - FLIP
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terrya
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Fri Oct-15-10 10:45 AM
Response to Reply #1 |
13. That's spot on. I completely agree with you. |
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Edited on Fri Oct-15-10 10:46 AM by terrya
I wish...I hope....Wisconsin will be different.
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Capt. America
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Fri Oct-15-10 07:31 AM
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2. It would be better if you included the names: |
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Alaska (R) ----------Flip California (D) ------Hold Colorado (D) --------Flip Connecticut (D) -----Hold Delaware (D) --------Hold (thank you witchy woman!) Florida (R)----------Hold Illinois (D) --------Hold Kentucky (R) --------Hold Nevada (D) ----------Hold Pennsylvania (D) ----Flip Washington (D) ------Flip West Virginia (D)----Flip Wisconsin (D)--------Hold (Come on Russ!)
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Capt. America
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Fri Oct-15-10 07:31 AM
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3. You missed Ohio (R) ---Hold |
jefferson_dem
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Fri Oct-15-10 07:38 AM
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4. I had great expectations for OH... |
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but i'm afraid it's out of reach. Portman ... ack!
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karynnj
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Fri Oct-15-10 07:52 AM
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5. I really come out very close to your prediction - 54, where I think yours should be 53 |
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Edited on Fri Oct-15-10 07:59 AM by karynnj
(You missed Dorgan (D, ND) as a near certain flip. )
Alaska (R)- hold California (D) hold Colorado (D) hold Connecticut (D) hold Delaware (D) hold Florida (R)hold Illinois (D)hold (close, but Chicago is known for its GOTV) Kentucky (R)hold Nevada (D)hold Pennsylvania (D)flip (though I really hope otherwise) Washington (D)hold West Virginia (D)hold Wisconsin (D) flip (though I really hope Feingold finds a way to connect to the people he served all these years)
Looking at this, if our predictions hold, very few Senate incumbents running will have lost - contrary to the media meme.
The best, most optimistic case is if sanity finally wins and Conway beats Paul and Miller and Murkowski wound each other enough that McAdams wins. If that (and these predictions happen) I think the only tea party win would be Rubio, Utah's R (no way do we have a chance) and NH's R, although I think she might be more mainstream than tea party.
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jefferson_dem
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Fri Oct-15-10 07:54 AM
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6. Aye. How could I forget Dorgan's seat? |
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Thanks!
I've fixed the OP and adjusted my prediction.
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FBaggins
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Fri Oct-15-10 08:02 AM
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7. I'm all for optimism... but how on earth can we call Florida "in play"? |
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It isn't even in play between Republican and RepublicanLite.
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Mass
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Fri Oct-15-10 08:39 AM
Response to Original message |
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AFTER "FOR CERTAIN FLIPS" (Arkansas, Indiana, North Dakota): 56 Democrats, 44 Republicans
IN PLAY (10 DEM, 3 REP):
Alaska (R) California (D) Colorado (R) Connecticut (D) Delaware (D) Florida (R) Illinois (D) Kentucky (R) Nevada (R) Pennsylvania (R) Washington (D) West Virginia (D) Wisconsin (D)
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blue_onyx
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Fri Oct-15-10 09:49 AM
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9. I think the GOP picks up 6 |
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Arkansas Indiana North Dakota Colorado Pennsylvania Wisconsin
Republican (47) vs. Democratic (53)
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S_E_Fudd
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Fri Oct-15-10 10:41 AM
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10. 52-48...Lieberman caucuses with Repubs in preparation for 2012.. |
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So 51-49...nominal control. Of course Republicans have defacto control now so not a huge difference in the way the institution works.
Would not be shocked if a current Dem switches parties (Nelsen, Landrieu) to make it 50-50
Alaska (R) Hold California (D) Hold Colorado (D) Flip Connecticut (D) Hold Delaware (D) Hold Florida (R) Hold Illinois (D)Hold Kentucky (R) Hold Nevada (D) Flip Pennsylvania (D) Flip Washington (D) Hold West Virginia (D)Hold Wisconsin (D)Flip
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BootinUp
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Fri Oct-15-10 10:44 AM
Response to Reply #10 |
11. Well you got the downside covered. lol. nt |
jefferson_dem
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Fri Oct-15-10 11:47 AM
Response to Reply #10 |
16. I was about to give a "FLIP" to NV also but I simply couldn't get myself to believe |
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Edited on Fri Oct-15-10 11:47 AM by jefferson_dem
that teabaggin' dolt Angle could actually win. After the dreadful debate performance by Reid, however, that's probably more likely today than yesterday. Ugh...
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Milo_Bloom
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Fri Oct-15-10 10:44 AM
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Jbowers
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Fri Oct-15-10 11:15 AM
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It could have been worse, but I see Democrats keeping 53 senators, which is good considering we heard some pundits talk about Republicans obtaining a majority.
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Ter
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Fri Oct-15-10 11:43 AM
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15. Republicans will hold onto all of their seats, and pick up seven |
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Republican 48, Democrats 50, Independents 2.
BTW, that is not a win. 48 Republicans will block nearly everything.
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S_E_Fudd
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Fri Oct-15-10 12:20 PM
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17. Not much different than 40 republicans blocking everything...nt |
grantcart
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Fri Oct-15-10 12:25 PM
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18. Democrats hold with 53 and the Republican Caucus has a challenge for leadership. |
jefferson_dem
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Fri Oct-15-10 01:02 PM
Response to Reply #18 |
19. The coming DeMint(ed)-Ryan Republican Revolution. |
saltpoint
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Sat Oct-16-10 07:47 AM
Response to Reply #18 |
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There may be some discontented rumbling in the GOP House leadership as well if the GOP fails to win the lower chamber.
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craigmatic
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Fri Oct-15-10 01:17 PM
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mvd
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Fri Oct-15-10 03:03 PM
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21. It will be better than people think, IMO |
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Alaska (R) - hold California (D) - hold Colorado (D) - flip Connecticut (D) - hold Delaware (D) - hold Florida (R)- hold Illinois (D)- hold Kentucky (R) - hold Nevada (D) - hold Pennsylvania (D) - hold Washington (D) - hold West Virginia (D) - hold Wisconsin (D) - hate to say it, but a close flip
Sestak will return the favor for Brown coming back in MA.
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Dawson Leery
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Fri Oct-15-10 04:25 PM
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23. Colorado could go either way. |
mvd
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Fri Oct-15-10 04:52 PM
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24. Yes. Could make my predictions even more optimistic later |
enough already 2
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Sat Oct-16-10 07:39 AM
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29. Unfortunately, I see no way back for Sestak |
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And Toomey is nucking futs, which sucks for us in Pa.
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BootinUp
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Sat Oct-16-10 01:25 PM
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33. Sestak is about to show people how its done |
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Mark my words. Have you seen his new ad?
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quiller4
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Sat Oct-16-10 01:20 PM
Response to Reply #21 |
32. Here are my predictions |
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Alaska (R) hold California (D) hold Colorado (D) hold Connecticut (D) hold Delaware (D) hold Florida (R) hold Illinois (D) hold Kentucky (R) flip Nevada (D) hold Pennsylvania (D) flip Washington (D) hold West Virginia (D) hold Wisconsin (D) flip
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bigwillq
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Fri Oct-15-10 04:15 PM
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Blumenthal will defeat Mrs. WWE.
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backwoodsbob
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Fri Oct-15-10 05:40 PM
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Imajika
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Fri Oct-15-10 06:17 PM
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26. At this moment in time... |
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52/48 Democrats hold the Senate.
Still a lot of time though.
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Donald Ian Rankin
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Sat Oct-16-10 06:58 AM
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27. A small Republican majority, if we're lucky. |
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I think that those people predicting Democratic majorities are driven by wishful thinking, in a fairly extreme way - while I'm not an expert, the overwhelming majority of the objective and the majority of the partisan analysis I've seen points to a Republican majority.
I won't be *amazed* if I'm wrong, but I think betting any other way is deeply foolish.
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Mass
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Sat Oct-16-10 07:00 AM
Response to Reply #27 |
28. Not in the Senate. Actually, nearly all analysis point to a small Democratic majority in the Senate |
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Edited on Sat Oct-16-10 07:01 AM by Mass
The House is obviously a different story.
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rbilancia
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Sat Oct-16-10 02:00 PM
Response to Reply #27 |
38. Are you trolling or just in need of anti-depressant meds? |
Donald Ian Rankin
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Sat Oct-16-10 05:38 PM
Response to Reply #38 |
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I just try not to confuse desire with expectation.
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Liberal_Stalwart71
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Sat Oct-16-10 07:50 AM
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31. I hope you're right about Colorado. I hope you're dead wrong about Kentucky! n/t |
DemocratSinceBirth
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Sat Oct-16-10 01:32 PM
Response to Original message |
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Alaska (R) R California (D) D Colorado (D) D Connecticut (D) D Delaware (D) D Florida (R) R Illinois (D) R Kentucky (R) R Nevada (D) R Pennsylvania (D) R Washington (D) D West Virginia (D) D Wisconsin (D) R
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argonaut
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Sat Oct-16-10 01:39 PM
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35. I'm kind of optimistic, if realistic. |
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CURRENT: 59 D, 41 R
Assuming Arkansas, Indiana and North Dakota are gone - and they are, really - that's 56 D, 44 R.
I think Murkowski will actually pull it out in Alaska, not that she's much better than Miller. But McAdams is actually within range, and this could be an upset.
Boxer holds on in CA.
CO is pure toss-up.
Blumenthal by eight in CT.
Coonslide in DE.
Rubio in FL. *vomits*
Giannoulious in IL by a tiny margin.
Reid in NV by a depressingly small margin.
Sestak makes it close, but Toomey wins PA.
Murray beats Rossi, yet again in WA.
Manchin pulls it out in WV.
Feingold, and I'm sad even typing this, is pretty much done at this point. *sigh* Senator Johnson (R).
Kentucky's interesting - Randy definetely has the edge, but I do think Conway can pull a surprise and make this one a pickup.
OH has been disappointing - Fisher's an awful candidate, and Bush hack Portman will win easily.
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DemocratSinceBirth
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Sat Oct-16-10 01:58 PM
Response to Reply #35 |
36. I Thought Murkowski Might Win But She's Not Even On The Ballot |
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Last candidate to win that way was Strom Thurmond in 54.
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Blue_In_AK
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Sat Oct-16-10 02:06 PM
Response to Reply #36 |
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In addition, since she didn't finalize her write-in campaign until a few days ago, there is no write-up on her in the election pamphlet distributed by the state. Joe Miller has had scandal upon scandal, and I believe polling next week will show him losing support. Scott McAdams in the meantime is gaining converts every day in town hall meetings, debates and face-to-face encounters. I think he has a very good chance.
Lisa has rolled out an ad that Ted Stevens did before his untimely death expressing support for her in the primary. She didn't use it then because he was barely cold in the ground, but she is bringing it out now with the support of the Stevens family. Some people think this is a good idea, some people find it ghoulish. What I want to know is why she isn't running an endorsement from the former Alaska senator who gave her the job in the first place -- dear old dad, Frank Murkowski. She's not going to touch that one with a 10-foot pole.
I think this far out and with time to make up the difference, Scott's chances are very good.
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Blue_In_AK
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Sat Oct-16-10 02:00 PM
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37. I don't have any on-the-ground knowledge of Lower 48 races. |
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All I can accurately report is that the Alaska Senate race is anybody's guess, but I'm liking Scott McAdams' chances.
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golfguru
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Sat Oct-16-10 02:21 PM
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40. It's very volatile out there...could be any where from |
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44 repugs to 50 repugs on November 3rd.
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golfguru
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Sat Oct-16-10 02:26 PM
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41. Here is my predictions, state by state |
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Edited on Sat Oct-16-10 02:27 PM by golfguru
Alaska (R) --> R California (D) --> D Colorado (D) --> D Connecticut (D) --> D Delaware (D) --> D Florida (R) --> R Illinois (D) --> D Kentucky (R) --> R Nevada (D) --> D Pennsylvania (D) --> R Washington (D) --> D West Virginia (D) --> dead heat Wisconsin (D) --> R Ohio (D) --> R
Net gain GOP = 3 seats, 4 if Manchin loses.
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and-justice-for-all
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Sat Oct-16-10 02:33 PM
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Ellsworth (D-IN) is going to the senate and I am rather confident that Trent Van Haaften (D-IN) will be going to congress, a I do not know what you mean by "AFTER "FOR CERTAIN FLIPS" (Arkansas, Indiana, North Dakota)"
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bigwillq
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Sat Oct-16-10 02:43 PM
Response to Reply #42 |
43. There's 101 senators now? |
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Edited on Sat Oct-16-10 02:43 PM by bigwillq
:shrug:
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Radical Activist
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Sat Oct-16-10 05:44 PM
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45. 59 Democrats. 41 Republicans. |
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Edited on Sat Oct-16-10 05:45 PM by Radical Activist
We'll pick up Alaska and Kentucky. We have a decent shot at taking one more Republican seat in either NH or MO.
Most of the others on your list are Democratic states that will come around on election day.
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