Where I see the Governor's races as of today, 10/15

[WI_DEM]

Safe/likely Dem:
Arkansas
New Hampshire
New York
Colorado
Connecticut
Maryland

Leaning Dem:
Massachusetts
Florida
California
Rhode Island
Minnesota


Safe/likely GOP:
Nebraska
Wyoming
Alabama
Michigan
Oklahoma
South Dakota
Iowa
Tennessee
Alaska
Idaho
Kansas
Utah
Nevada

Leaning GOP:
Pennsylvania
South Carolina
Georgia
New Mexico
Texas
Wisconsin

Toss-ups:
Hawaii
Vermont
Illinois
Ohio
Maine
Oregon

Analysis:
Democratic pick-ups (5) in: Connecticut, Florida, Minnesota, Rhode Island, California

GOP pick-ups (8) in: Wyoming, Michigan, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Kansas, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Wisconsin.

Net GOP pick-up prior to allocating toss-ups: 3 seats

The Toss-ups: HA, VT, IL, OH, ME, OR--currently 4 are Democratic (IL, OH, ME, OR) and 2 GOP (HA, VT)

If I had to guess today how these states would ultimately vote it would be:
Hawaii--Democrat
Vermont--Democrat
Illinois--Republican
Ohio--Republican
Maine--Republican
Oregon--Democrat

If so that would add two more Dem pick-ups from GOP (HA,VT) and one hold (OR). The GOP would have pick-ups in 3 states (IL, OH, ME). HOWEVER, I MUST NOTE THAT I THINK THAT DEMS IN THE NEXT TWO WEEKS CAN POSSIBLY WIN SOME OF THOSE STATES I ALLOCATED TO THE GOP--ESPECIALLY OHIO GOVERNORSHIP.

MY Overall prediction as of today, October 15, is that the GOP will have a net gain of five Governorships:

DEM PICKUPS (7):
CONNECTICUT
FLORIDA
MINNESOTA
RHODE ISLAND
CALIFORNIA
HAWAII
VERMONT

GOP PICKUPS (12):
WYOMING
IOWA
MICHIGAN
OKLAHOMA
TENNESSEE
KANSAS
PENNSYLVANIA
NEW MEXICO
WISCONSIN
ILLINOIS
OHIO
MAINE

The Dems will be able to point to Governorships in FL and CA which will figure big in redistricting, while GOP point towards wins in the rustbelt--OH, PA, MI, WI--all of which will probably lose seats in congress.

If GOP gains are limited to five seats or less, I think that can be interpeted as somewhat of a set-back since many analysis have predicted the GOP netting 9-10 governorships this year.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

1. Hurts my heart about Georgia. I'm devastated over this! n/t

[WI_DEM]

2. I actually moved GA from solid GOP to leans, because Deal has

lost some ground, but my guess is that in the end Deal will win.

[rurallib]

3. analysis after analysis puts Iowa in very good financial shape

especially considering the republican depression.
And we are going to re elect an old governor whose claim to fame was keeping two sets of books while he was governor?
So much for the myth of Iowans being a smart state.

[WI_DEM]

6. It's unbelievable! I agree, the last Des Moine Register poll had Culver down by 19!

just before the election they will have another out, hopefully it will look a lot better. Interesting to note though, while the Iowa polls have Culver losing big--the early voting in Iowa in both terms of ballots requested and returned favor the democrats:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/iowa-democrats-returning_b_763876.html

[Upton]

4. Forget it...self delete.

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

5. Strickland might be able to pull it off. I'm embarrassed to say Quinn might not. nt

[WI_DEM]

7. I agree on Strickland

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

9. It pisses me off that Quinn might lose. He 's really a decent Governor compared to what we've had

lately.

[WI_DEM]

10. It's been getting closer in the gov race, maybe Obama can help?

[Cosmocat]

8. Again ...

Thanks for the information you bring on polls ...

As noted, this is an area where dems can hold some lines ...

Battle of the bulge, just keep the majorities, even if by a handful of seats, and firewall governorships as much as possible ...