NH CD2: Dem Kuster 43% (+5) v. Repub Bass 36% (-7) - a +13 Dem swing in a month

[Pirate Smile]

Kuster Overtakes Bass In 2nd CD Poll
Pollster Says Kuster Has More Momentum

POSTED: 5:16 pm EDT October 15, 2010
UPDATED: 5:36 pm EDT October 15, 2010

MANCHESTER, N.H. -- There has been a major shift in the race for the 2nd Congressional District, with a new poll showing Democrat Annie Kuster leading Republican Charlie Bass.

The WMUR Granite State Survey shows Kuster leading the race for the first time, 43 to 36 percent. The poll of 369 likely voters in the 2nd District has a margin of sampling error of 5.1 percent.

Pollster Andy Smith of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, which conducted the poll, said that Bass has name recognition because he used to hold the seat. But Kuster has the momentum.

A month ago, Bass held a 5-point lead.

http://www.wmur.com/r/25406103/detail.html

Nate Silver has warned about some local polls - Sample seems small and margin of error seems large but, hey, I'll take the momentum being with the Dems. :)

[Mass]

1. I take any good news there. I cant stand all these ads against her and Paul Hodes any more.

By comparison, it makes the MA governor's race look tame.

This said, I'd like to see other polls confirming this one, but WMUR Granite Poll is a respected poll.

[catgirl]

2. I shifted gears in my efforts to help...

I'm now helping Patrick in the MA gov. race and Paul Hodes in the NH senate race. I'll start helping Kuster next week.
Sadly, I don't feel confident with a Shea-Porter win at this point. Her opponent, Guinta, is a jack ass, but the money
poured in from The U.S. Chamber and Karl Rove's groups to blast the airways with negative ads.

[David Zephyr]

3. Great news!

Thanks Pirate Smile! I want that New Hampshire Senate seat, too. It can happen.

[rox63]

4. The repukes have been running some really nasty anti-Kuster ads

Saw one this morning during the teevee news.

[Stuart G]

5. Here is the polling data from Real Politics...

Note the shift from 7/19 to 3 days ago.. Even if she is only ahead by 2 or 3...this is very significant..

WMUR/UNH 10/7 - 10/12 363 LV 43 36 Kuster +7
The Hill/Penn, Schoen & Berland (D) 10/5 - 10/7 407 LV 42 45 Bass +3
WMUR/UNH 9/23 - 9/29 220 LV 38 43 Bass +5
American Res. Group 9/22 - 9/26 400 LV 36 38 Bass +2
WMUR/UNH 7/19 - 7/27 197 LV 29 47 Bass +18
WMUR/UNH 4/12 - 4/21 231 LV 30 42 Bass +12
WMUR/UNH 1/27 - 2/3 177 LV 28 39 Bass +11



I sent some money over there, looks like she has a chance to win...one less to the pukes..

Here is the actual link
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/house/nh/new_hampshire_2nd_district_bass_vs_kuster-1491.html