Hawaii Senate: Inouye (D) 53% Cavasso (R) 40%

[Ter]

Yes, it's Rasmussen, but if this race is anything remotely close I'm afraid we're doomed. :(

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/hawaii/election_2010_hawaii_senate

[dkf]

1. This is BS.

No way it's this close.

[littlewolf]

7. I agree ... No way ....

usually he doesn't have a challenger .....

[Hekate]

2. Isn't that a 13 point spread? How is that "close"?

:shrug:

[Ter]

3. It's close because he usually wins with 75% of the vote or more

He had been leading by 40 points or so in early Summer. If he wins by 13% in November then hello Republican Senate.

[Hekate]

4. What am I missing here? If he wins by 13 % in November, he WINS.

Hello? Inouye wins in November, he goes back to the Senate, a Democratic seat is retained.

[Ter]

5. If he wins by 13, you're saying HI was just a fluke?

If he wins by just 13 in HI, that means 20% to 25% of voters who normally voted Democratic switched. A fluke? Extremely unlikely, afterall, it's a very liberal state and Obama's own. It could mean a 25% switch nationwide.

I remember 1994. Remember Ted Kennedy, because I do. He was in a tough race. A race he usually breezed by. Up until the final month it was a real race. Because there was even talk that seat was in play, it meant Democrats in swing states were certain to lose.

So if in two years Orin Hatch is leading by 13 in Utah, expect the Democrats to win 10 seats that year.

[BzaDem]

6. Just 10 days before the Rasmussen poll, PPP had Innoye-65, Cavasso-29 (D+36)

and I don't think the national environment has changed that much within the past 10 days.