How I see the Senate as of Today: D=50 R=45 5=toss-ups

[WI_DEM]

We begin with 63 Senate seats not up for election this year and the division is 40 Dems and 23 GOP.

Dems (Solid/likely)
Delaware
Hawaii
Maryland
New York (Schumer)
New York (Gillibrand)
Oregon
Vermont

Dem total=47

Dem (leaning)
Connecticut
Washington
California

Dem Total=50

GOP (Solid/likely)
Arkansas
Louisiana
North Carolina
Alabama
Arizona
Georgia
Iowa
Idaho
Kansas
North Dakota
Oklahoma
South Carolina
South Dakota
Utah
Indiana
Florida
Missouri

GOP Total=40

GOP (Leaning)
Kentucky
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
New Hampshire

GOP Total=45

Toss-up:
Colorado
Illinois
Nevada
Alaska
West Virginia

Summary:
I include Alaska because it seems like Miller is self-destructing and it's questionable how a write-in for Murkowski will go and it seems that McAdams is right in the thick of it. I would say that recent trends indicate that West Virginia is moving towards the Dems, but it's too soon to take out of the "toss-up" column. I think that CO, IL, & NV are truly too close to call and will depend on GOTV.

If I were betting today I would say that Dems have a good shot to win 3 of the 5 toss-ups which would bring us up to 53 Dems in the Senate, but then again I think it's possible we could take 4/5 of them. PA I still have as lean GOP but will be watching the polls in next two weeks--that one might shift to toss-up.

[Robbins]

1. I agree

Except for PA.I still think Sestak should not be written off.Alaska can be unprediable so I agree with that.Inless there Is upset
In Kentucky Republicans will win their open senate seats.We will defently lose ND,Arkansas,and Indiana.And it looks like we will lose
Wisconsin.

I defently voting here In Missouri even though It appears that Lying no Good Roy Blunt will win.There Is chance the so called
Likely voter screen Is wrong.That Is what the polls go by now.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. I See A 51-49 To 52-48 Democratic Senate

~

[mikekohr]

3. I see a likely range of 53-56 Democratic seats with 55 being my magic number

mike kohr
Bureau County Democrats
http://bureaucountydems.blogspot.com

[Grown2Hate]

4. Unfortunately, I'd probably move Ohio to "solid/likely" Repuke. I haven't seen a poll closer than

10 points in a LONG time.

On the other hand, I don't know why, I just have a gut feeling that Feingold will come out ahead. Probably just wishful, but I still see us with a good chance there.

Other than that, that's about where we are for sure. Just have to G.O.T.F.V.!!! }(

[Robbins]

5. Polls

PPP has new one out of PA with Sestak ahead by 1 among likely voters.The big difference Is In likely Voters Toomey just barely leads
among Independents.Independents voting against Democrats because hey are unhappy with the Economy Is the thing that Is helping
Republicans.Even a Fox New Poll from Colorado has a 1 point lead for Buck.Fox itself Is seeing Improvement for Bennent there.PPP has
new poll with here In Missouri Blunt down to 5 point lead.PPP got the primarys and special elections right this year.This Is why I
trust them even when they have results we don't like.

West Virginia Is looking like a retain.If we win the close races In PA,Colorado,and Nevada we keep the Republican pickups to 4.
And there Is even a slim chance of a up In one of three(Alaska,Missouri,Kentucky)

As for Feingold his only hope Is that registered voters come up and Likely Voter screen In WI Ignors a lot of Democrats.

[recadna]

6. 55-45

AK is not winning able because McAdams is a weak candidate (Meek of the West). Any credible democrat would have taken full advantages of Miller/Murkowski situation. Lisa Murkowski will win a landslide as a write-in. I doubt any Joe Miller voter will change to vote for Scott McAdams.

I have faith in IL/PA/WV. I think we come back and win these three. PA and IL are still blue states and Manchin is too popular to lose.

KY is lost. Conway had been in a pretty decent position and one Paul gaffe away from taking the lead. However, he lost his patience and really shot himself with the stupid ad. Campaign rule #1: Do not question other people's faith, especially in South/Midwest.

CO, NV and WI will be nail-bitters. I think we will take two of three.

FL/OH/NH/MO/CA/WA/CT will not be close.

My take: 55-45. GOP takes over ND, AR, IN, NV, and WI and keep all their own seats.