Hold your hats, folks! PPP has MO Senate race tightening Blunt 46% Carnahan 41%

[WI_DEM]

The Missouri Senate race is getting closer, with Robin Carnahan pulling within 5 points of Roy Blunt in a new PPP poll conducted for her campaign. Blunt's lead is 46-41, in contrast with the 45-38 advantage he had when we last took a look at the race in August.

There are two things driving the increased competitiveness of the race:

-As is happening across the country Democratic voters are getting more interested in this year's election as the big day comes closer. In August only 33% of those describing themselves as likely to vote in November were Democrats, while 38% were Republicans. Now the likely voter pool is composed of 36% Democrats and 35% Republicans. While Republicans have been extremely excited about voting all year, many Democrats are just now starting to tune into the election. This is causing many races across the country, including this one, to tighten down the stretch.

-Roy Blunt's support from Democrats has decreased since August, while Robin Carnahan's support from Republicans has seen a slight increase. When PPP last looked at this race there was a large gap in the two candidates' crossover support, with Blunt getting 11% of Democrats while Carnahan had only 4% Republican support. Now Blunt is getting just 8% of Democrats with Carnahan up to 6% of Republicans, essentially erasing the gap in party unity that is causing many Democratic candidates across the country trouble. Blunt continues to lead overall thanks to a 46-31 advantage with independents.

Some pundits have written off this race as an opportunity for Democrats to pick up a seat but Carnahan is within the margin of error and picking up support and if her party's base continues to awaken in the final 15 days before the election this race could provide a surprise.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/

[Arkana]

1. This is a lot like the KY race--in the right election cycle, we'd have a great opportunity.

But the trends are just a bit too unfavorable this time around.

Still, here's hoping.

[Kdillard]

4. Yeah still nice to see.

[Robbins]

2. Good

I can't stand Blunt.He ads basiclly saying the Jobs problem Is all Obama Fault.And going on about tax Cuts and deregulation which
got us In the mess to beguin with made me want to hit the TV screen.Robin Carnahan needs huge turnout among Democrats here In Kansas
City and In St Louis City and Country.

[pstokely]

6. She's not doing much to get the Urban vote out by running a tea-lite campaign

nt

[Telly Savalas]

8. Not being named Roy Blunt is sufficient for her to lock up the urban vote

And while I'm not incredibly enthused by her, calling her campaign tea-lite is a bullshit accusation.

[pstokely]

13. She wants to keep the Chimp tax cuts

http://20poundsofheadlines.wordpress.com/2010/08/20/carnahan-switchs-on-bush-tax-cuts-now-favors-extension/

at least she said she did in August, not being Papa Blunt is not enough to get the Urban vote out

[xchrom]

3. I watched the 'debate' between the two of them.

She mopped the floor with and wrung him out for good measure.

Missouri is an interesting place though.

[KingFlorez]

5. I'm quite surprised at this

Carnahan had been far back in most polls and it didn't seem like the seat was still in play.

[bigdarryl]

7. I remember hearing the party that starts to move over the last two weeks always wins in Nov

don't know if any truth to that

[Sky Masterson]

9. As a Missourian

I can confirm at least 4 votes for Robin.
I long to read the headline
CARNAHAN SMOKES BLUNT!
in the Kansas City Star

[tritsofme]

10. The poll was commissioned by the Carnahan campaign.

And should be looked at in that context.

[michreject]

11. Shit

Now you went and spoiled it with important and often omitted facts. Everything was all fine and dandy until you said that.

[Sky Masterson]

12. That may be true, but..

I've lived in Kansas for over 25 years before I moved to Missouri and Kansas may be the reddest state out there, yet they Elected a Democrat for governor.
I hope this doesn't come off as sexist but Republican wives will sometimes vote for a woman over a man and sometimes when houses are polled they only poll one vote when many houses may be divided.. Ya nevah know.. It aint over until http://www.shadowandact.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/dd866c16-616a-1dcc-a575-36bdc2ef5aeb-Independenceday+cigar.jpg
until the lady of any weight sings :)