http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/the_wave_and_the_reality_20101018/The Wave and the Reality
Posted on Oct 18, 2010
By Eugene Robinson
I’m cautious about the conventional wisdom that the Democratic Party is about to get flattened by a Republican steamroller. Pollsters are less certain than they’d like you to believe about who’s a “likely voter” and who isn’t. It’s easy to imagine how Democrats, facing near-unanimous predictions of a wipeout, could bestir themselves to narrow the enthusiasm gap by just enough to turn a potential “wave” election into a regular midterm setback for the party in power.
Then again, Democrats might react to the prospect of big losses by pulling the blanket over their heads and going back to sleep. If this happens, Republicans could plausibly win not just the House but the Senate as well. America will have sent Washington a message—and Washington will go on, basically, with business as usual.
The conservatives and tea party activists who believe they’re going to fundamentally change the relationship between citizens and their government will become just as disillusioned as the progressives and independents who believed they were fundamentally changing that relationship in 2008. Two years from now, we might well be looking at yet another wave—flowing in the opposite direction. Our politics have become tidal.
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I expect obstruction. That would be bad for the country, but it would be a gift to a White House seeking to regain its political footing. Every time Obama reached out to Capitol Hill and had his hand slapped away, more independents—frustrated with partisanship and inaction—would drift back into his column. He’d be well positioned for 2012.
That’s the thing about electoral waves: They crash on the perilous shores of reality.
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