PPP: WA Senate--Murray (D) 49% Rossi (R)47%; Murray lead in early voting 52-47

[WI_DEM]

GOTV:

There's a pretty strong argument that the Washington Senate race is the most stable in the country: PPP finds Patty Murray leading Dino Rossi 49-47, basically identical to our July poll of the race that found her ahead 49-46.

The reason for the stability is that voters know these candidates, they know what they think of them, and nothing they've heard during this campaign has changed those opinions in one direction or the other. In July Murray's approval rating was 46/45. Now it's 47/48. In July Rossi's favorability was 43/48. Now it's 44/49. This is a race where persuasion means little and everything will hinge on who bothers to cast their ballots in the next few weeks.

PPP has seen an increase in Democratic interest in many states as the election moves closer but Washington is not one of them and that's the main reason Rossi is still in this thing. Barack Obama won the state by 17 points in 2008 but those planning to vote this year supported him by only 7 points, giving Washington one of the larger enthusiasm gaps we're seeing across the country. If she can get more of those Obama voters who seem likely to drop off to cast their ballots this year she has a chance to win by a more comfortable margin but if things stay as they are this contest is firmly in the toss up category.

In addition to being the most stagnant race in the country Washington also provides one of the most polarizing contests anywhere this year. Murray has 93% of the Democratic vote locked up while Rossi's getting 91% of the Republicans. Appeal across party lines is basically nonexistent for both candidates. Independents are going for Rossi by a 49/43 margin.

One hopeful sign for Murray in the poll is that she leads 52-47 with the 14% of voters who say they've already case their ballots. Working against her is that Obama now has a negative 46/48 approval rating in the state and for the most part voters who don't like Obama aren't voting for Democrats this year. Looks like this one could be a nail biter.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/

[MyNameIsKhan]

1. Murry will win this, check the polls after pres obama is there...

[Kdillard]

2. Fingers crossed she pulls through. Early voting looks good.

[OHdem10]

3. Thanks for the good news.

[WI_DEM]

4. This also is about the same as the recent Rasmussen poll of 49-46 for Murray.