It's not clear which party will benefit most from early voting this year, given how much the political landscape has changed since 2008, when Barack Obama's campaign established it as an essential campaign tool. But Democrats more than Republicans are counting on early votes to give them an edge in an otherwise lackluster election season.
The Democratic National Committee has committed $30 million to turning out Obama supporters who might otherwise take a pass on a midterm election. That's on top of spending by state parties and individual Democratic candidates.
The GOP hasn't made a similar coordinated effort, but it may not need to. Preliminary returns from key early-voting states suggest that Democrats are outpacing Republicans, or at least holding their own, in initial returns in some key states. Two large Democratic counties in Ohio have reported a surge in early ballots.
But in other states, the early votes could line up on the Republican side. In North Carolina, white men - who constitute the largest bloc of early voters and tend to vote Republican - are turning out at twice the pace of 2006. In 2008, when Obama carried North Carolina, the dominant early-voting group was African American women, according to the nonpartisan group Democracy North Carolina.
In Nevada, where the party is making a big push for Reid, Democrats are slightly ahead of Republicans in raw early-vote totals, although Democrats are trailing slightly in turnout percentage. Nevada political analyst Jon Ralston said that the numbers may translate into a slim Democratic lead on Election Day, provided the momentum doesn't shift.
Early voting in Iowa started Sept. 23, and the state is beating its 2002 and 2006 totals, with a third of the electorate projected to vote by mail or in person before Nov. 2. So far, 128,000 Democrats have requested mail ballots, compared with 105,000 Republicans and 50,000 independents. The GOP number is an improvement from previous years, but Democrats are also returning their ballots at slightly higher rates.
Iowa Secretary of State Michael Mauro, a Democrat, said his party is targeting students and minority voters who supported Obama in 2008 but don't usually show up for midterm elections. Spot checks with county auditors suggest the tactic may be working.
"I don't know if the pundits have missed this, but I think there's more engagement than we were expecting," Mauro said. "There was a belief that Democrats would stay home - but they're coming out."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/10/19/AR2010101907513_2.html