"Fatal Flaw"-NDN Challenges Gallup To Revise or Drop its 2010 Election Polling

[kpete]

Gallup's Likely Voter Model Has Fatal Flaw - NDN Challenges Gallup To Revise or Drop its 2010 Election Polling
Submitted by Simon Rosenberg on 10/20/10
Simon Rosenberg's picture

Several weeks ago the Gallup polling organization revised its measure of the "Congressional Generic" poll with a new set of assumptions about what the make up and partisan vote of the 2010 elections might look like. It is our opinion at NDN that the model Gallup came up with is so statistically flawed that Gallup should revise the model and its results or take it down from its website immediately.

According to a new report by Professor Alan Abramowitz, the new Gallup likely voter model has the non-white, non-black vote at 13 percent of the 2010 electorate, and coming in at 52% Republican and 42% Democratic. Simply stated these projections are not a possible statistical outcome in the 2010 elections, and draw into question the integrity of the entire Gallup 2010 elections polling project.

The non-white, non-black portion of the American electorate went more than 2:1 Democratic in 2008 and 2006. Hispanics who make up the largest portion of this slice of the electorate, voted 70% to 30% for the Democrats in 2006, and 67% to 31% for President Obama over John McCain in 2008. In two recent polls of Hispanic voters, these basic ratios have not changed, and if is any movement to be found in these polls it is a drop in support for the Republican Party since 2008. A Latino Decisions poll has the Latino vote now at 59% Democrat, 22% Republican. The most recent, and highly respected, Pew Hispanic poll had it at 65% Democrat, 22% Republican. The gap between the most respected Latino poll in the nation - Pew - and this recent Gallup model is 50% percentage points.

Much of the remaining portion of this non-white, non-black slice of the American electorate is Asian. This community actually voted more Democratic in 2008 than Hispanics.

more:
http://ndn.org/blog/2010/10/gallups-likely-voter-model-has-fatal-flaw-ndn-challenges-gallup-revise-or-drop-its-2010
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/10/21/912204/-Gallup-Scandal.-Urged-to-STOP-Polling-Immediately.-

[uponit7771]

1. GOOD!!! I've lost some confidence in Gallup, their methodology used to be sound

[tiptoe]

2. Charnin Unveils Who are Gallup's "Unlikely" Voters (first to expose the Pre-election Polling Scam)

10/15 Richard Charnin Midterms Forecast: MSM's Likely Voter Polls Preparing the Cover for GOP Fraud

Charnin 10/22 Update coming soon. The Pre-election Polling Scam Slouches Onwards.


See, too:

From Jonathan Simon:
“Likely Voter” samples over-represent the GOP (MUST-READ)

Will any mainstream pollster—like Nate Silver—ever deign to talk about this matter?

MCM

[Aramchek]

3. Repigs are spending big bucks across the board to suppress turnout

the incessant polling is just a part of it.