NC house race--Schuler (D) 54% Miller (R) 39%

[WI_DEM]

It's a Dem poll but given that Schuler is ahead by double digits, it's probably a good bet the poll has some merit:

Despite heavy spending against him by conservative third party groups including the well-funded Americans for Job Security, Rep. Heath Shuler (D) holds a 15 point lead in North Carolina's 11th district, according to a new Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee poll.

The survey, which was in the field Oct. 17 to 19, showed Shuler ahead of Republican Jeff Miller 54 percent to 39 percent. The Democratic firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner conducted the poll of 401 likely 11th district voters. It had a 4.9 point margin of error.

Though Miller was never expected to compete financially with Shuler's huge warchest, Republicans have been optimistic about making the western North Carolina seat a late addition to the 2010 playing field in large part because they believed third party groups had softened up the second term Congressman in recent weeks. AJS alone has spent over three quarters of a million dollars targeting Shuler.

"Every day that goes by voters in Western North Carolina learn how out of touch Jeff Miller's agenda really is," said DCCC spokesman Jesse Ferguson in a release. "Voters are focusing on what his job-killing agenda would mean in Congress and they don't like what they see."
http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/

[Kdillard]

1. Looks good but I want to see independent polling.

[WI_DEM]

2. unfortunately in house races you don't see a whole lot of independent polling.

My guess is that the GOP will be out with a poll to contradict this one, but if the Dem is leading still then it's probably a good guess that the Dem has some kind of a lead.

[Arkana]

3. Heath Shuler is the Blue Doggiest of Blue Dogs...while it's good

that a Democrat is winning, Heath Shuler's reelection shouldn't be cause for celebration for anyone.

[Cosmocat]

5. YEP ...

I actually sent him a letter with some polling showing that if they got behind it, people would get behind HCR, but he did not vote for it ... My guess is, he did not vote for any other tough bills either ...

In the end, is better to have the Schulers than the Bachmanns, obviously ...

But, people around here have to wrap their heads around the fact that there is not "middle" that exists outside of the democratic caucus ... You either have complete robot vote as one Rs, progressive Ds or Ds like Schuler who have to lean right on any real contentious issues ...

[young_at_heart]

4. Bill Clinton is here in Asheville and will be at a rally soon

Crowds are streaming in for Pres. Bill Clinton, who’s stumping in downtown Asheville for incumbent Rep. Heath Shuler (11th District, U.S. House of Representatives).

[FBaggins]

6. That's really encouraging even considering the source.

The only poll I've seen in this race is months old and essentially showed a tie. Even assuming that a released internal poll is likely to be biased, it's hard to come up with 15 points of bias.

Not that Shuler is the most popular democrat on DU... but he's better than the alternative - and the race is expected to be a bellweather here in NC.