How I see the Governor races as of today 10/22

[WI_DEM]

Safe/likely Dem: Arkansas, New Hampshire, New York, Colorado, Connecticut, Maryland

Leaning Dem: Hawaii, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Rhode Island, California

Safe/likely GOP: Nebraska, Wyoming, Alabama, Michigan, Oklahoma, Arizona, South Dakota, Tennessee, Alaska, Idaho, Kansas, Utah, Iowa, Nevada

Leaning GOP: Maine, South Carolina, Georgia, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Texas, Pennsylvania

Toss-up: Vermont, Ohio, Oregon, Florida, Illinois

Analysis: I was tempted to put PA in the toss-up, but the average in pollster.com is still over 5-points in favor of the GOP nominee, but it definitely is tightening and warrants watching. I was also tempted to put CA in the safe/likely category rather than leaning, but while Brown's lead is growing the average is not over ten-points.

As of right now I show:

Dem pick-ups in: Connecticut, Hawaii, Minnesota, Rhode Island, California

GOP pick-ups in: Wyoming, Michigan, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Kansas, Iowa, Maine, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania

Five states are toss-ups: 3 are controlled by dems (OH, OR, IL) and 2 by GOP (VT, FL)--polls indicate that Dems are gaining ground in all of them.

Based on how the toss-ups go the GOP could show a net gain of as little as 3 Governorships or as many as 8. However, as I indicated PA (right now as leaning GOP) warrants watching.