Dems have a big lead in early voting in West Virginia

[WI_DEM]

41,844 Total ballots

Dem 55.0%
Other 9.6%
Rep 35.3%

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2010.html

Of course as a caution Dems registration in WVA is overwhelming and it's hard to say who many of these conservative dems will vote for, but fingers crossed that they are going for home grown Manchin.

[Beetwasher]

1. Shhhhhhh!!!!!! There's An Enthusiasm Gap, Donchya Know?

n/t

[Kdillard]

2. Hope this is good news for Manchin.

[FBaggins]

3. Sorry... that's not a "big lead"

(even ignoring my prior comments about early voting statistics not meaning much).

That's essentially the turnout overall from 2008... yet McCain won by 13%. Better than one in four democrats voted for the republican.

We hold a substantial registration advantage in WV, but we also have to recognize that there are lots of people registered as democrats who nevertheless vote for republicans.

If you take a look at the PPP poll, their data assumes that the partisan balance for the vote will be 55D-33R.

[WI_DEM]

4. this isn't Obama vs. McCain this is Manchin vs. Raese

I'm just reporting the numbers and as you might have noticed I also indicated that Dems have a huge lead in registrations but vote republican.

[FBaggins]

5. And I gave you a Democratic polling firm's numbers on THIS race.

Not just McCain.

Their breakdown assumed that the partisan advantage would be larger/

IOW, if you took PPP's poll and assumed it was spot on... then you took the early voting stats you gave and assumed that they held true through election night (they likely won't)... Manchin would be ahead by about half a percentage point. Nothing to get excited about there... a race that's too close to call looks like it's too close to call?

The point is that even IF early voting statistics meant something (and they really don't mean much), this number wouldn't mean anything (good or bad). It also wouldn't mean much if they appeared way off in the other direction (Manchin, after all, once won a majority of republican voters as well)... because there is no reason to assume that early voting mirrors the voting on election day.

Every day you shit on something positive

Nope. I dump on incorrect statements whether they are positive OR negative. It doesn't do anyone any good to get up false hopes OR panic unnecessarily. As silver said today: "It’s silly season for election watchers"

as you might have noticed I also indicated that Dems have a huge lead in registrations but vote republican

And my agreeing with you upsets you... why?

[Change Happens]

6. The Obama voice out there has flipped many AGAIN!

IN favor of HIS agenda...Reminded people of why he was elected...etc.

[geek tragedy]

8. Not in West Virginia--Obama's less popular than athlete's foot

amongst those sophisticates.

[Phx_Dem]

7. Don't tell Jessica Yellens on CNN, She just gleefully reported that the Republicans

have the lead in early voting. I think she made it up as she was saying it.

[ShadowLiberal]

9. More partisan voters vote early, so that could also explain the numbers